2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions.

[JJC]

Here's the 270toWin interactive map for 2018. Feel free to post your predictions. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Overall, 33 seats are up for election in 2018. Oh those, 25 are held by democrats, while 8 are held by the GOP.

[JJC]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aRODg2

Net of R+1: GOP gains ND, IN, and MO. Dems gain AZ and NV. This is assuming a Trump approval of 40%, which is fair or too generous to him, depending on who you ask.

Maybe, but just remember that everything Trump is doing right now - while unpopular in coastal cities - is tremendously popular among rural and rust belt voters.

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

States that I think are gone for dems;
ND, MT, MO, and IN

Tossup;
FL, OH, PA, WI, MI, and NV.

WV is special in that it depends if Manchin runs as a dem or republican. If he stays dem, then the seat is lean D.

Everything else is lean or solid towards the incumbent party.

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

See: MA-Sen in 1996. Or 2012. And no, Hogan would be DOA in a Senate race. Maylanders might tolerate him as Governor, but they will not send an R to the Senate so long as a Republican is in the White House.

I would not use the word 'tolerate' for a guy who has 74% approval rating (and a 66% approval among dems). http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Media-Poll-January-2017.pdf

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

Yep. Also this;


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html

WV - rural
ND - rural
MT - rural
MO - rural/rust belt
IN - rust belt
OH - rust belt
FL - diversified
PA - rust belt
WI - rust belt
MI - rust belt
MN - rust belt
ME - rural