Reality: There's a decent chance that the GOP will control the entire government

[JJC]

The premise of this topic is this; almost every poll shows GOP senate candidates polling several points better than Trump. Let me explain.

At the off set of the GE campaign earlier this year, it seemed all but assured that democrats would retake the Senate, and with Trump as the GOP nominee, keep the WH. Hell, there was even talk about retaking the house! After all, the first thing Trump did after becoming the presumptive nominee was to get into a dumb and pointless spat with the latino judge overseeing his case. And then he got into another very pointless and damaging spat with the Khans. Democrats, obviously, were cheering. Despite Hillary's high negatives this election would be a cake walk. They need not do anything; just sit back and watch The Donald self-implode.

That was half a year ago. Things have changed.

After 'The Great Fall' of 2016, Deplorables, and a much more disciplined Trump campaign, future dem prospect are starting to fade.

The Senate:
Senate seats that once looked like solid pickup opportunities - FL and OH - are now proving to be long shots at best. Had Rubio not run again, Patrick Murphy, a well known political figure, may well have carried the state. As it is, Rubio is still very popular and polling has shown him with solid leads. RCP has him ahead by 6.5 points

The same can be said for Ohio. Dems did well recruiting Frm Gov Ted Stickland, but Portman is proving to be resilient. The RCP average has Portman up by 14.3 points. What's more, unlike many other states, Trump is probably helping Portland more than hurting him. His core base is white blue-collar workers - Trump's bread and butter.

In fact, the DSCC has pulled funding from both of those states. That should tell you everything you need to know about those races.

The Senate race in PA, also a once prime pickup, is now all but a tossup, with Toomey and McGinty within the MOE.

You can begin to see why democrats may be starting to fret.

Take away FL and OH, and dems are left with 2 - 3 probable pickups; IL, IN, and WI. That just leaves NV, where Heck is slightly ahead for a possible GOP gain, and MO and NC, where the GOP is modestly ahead. NH and PA is too close to call.

The best case for Dems from this scenario is routing all of these states, which would put them at 54-46. This is unlikely to happen. That's the best case scenario.

Now here's the worst.

Virtually every poll in the battleground states shows the GOP senate candidates running several points ahead of Trump - usually on average about 5 points, but in some cases by substantially more. The point being?

If Trump wins the WH, it is almost certain that the GOP in the battleground states - running ahead of Trump - will win their respective seats. OH and FL are solid GOP holds. NH - especially if Trump wins it - will also go to the GOP. MO is the one state that Trump is doing better than the candidate, but it too tilts to the GOP. NC will follow, and it's hard not seeing Nevada go to the party that wins the WH. At this point PA wouldn't even matter, but if Trump gets to within five points there, then Tommey probably wins.

Basically, I can imagine a scenario where Hillary wins the WH but the GOP still barely retains control of the Senate.

I cannot, however, imagine any scenario where Trump wins but the GOP loses the senate.

IMHO, if Trump wins the WH, which is starting to seem more plausible, then Republicans will have total control of the government. Democrats may want to deny it, but this is the reality of the situation.

What do you guys think?

[JJC]

At the beginning of the year, OH and FL were critical for a D majority. But now Democrats are focusing on IN, NH, PA, and MO, all of which are at least tossups for the Dems right now. (they are already well ahead in WI and IL) That would give them 52-48 if they win their best targets.

Yes, but wrestling MO away from the GOP will be tough for democrats. There's no Todd Akins running to save them this time. NH, PA, NV, and NC are what will determine the majority.

[JJC]

Umm, no. Chances to hold the Senate are about 60/40 right now. Trump has about a 15 percent chance of winning. Combination of holding the Senate and Trump would run about 7, 8 percent now.

Well prognosticator Nate Silver has Trump at 40% right now, as do the betting markets. Hillary still has an advantage, but unless something huge happens (which is always a possibility), then this will probably be a close election regardless.

Watch the rust-belt.

[JJC]

Wannabe journalists and their long posts. smh.

Who would want to be a journalist? Gross.

[JJC]

In this scenario, this GOP domination would go beyond the WH and Congress.  There would be another Scalia type appointed to SCOTUS, again giving the court a conservative majority.  Also, at the state level, most governors are and will be GOP, and the state legislatures are/will be overwhelmingly GOP.  And then there's the 2018 midterms, which typically feature conservative turnout and this particular midterm will feature a bad map for Dems.  Though this could be neutralized by liberal/moderate backlash against the Trumpublicans.

Overall, a complete Democratic dystopia.

The legislator advantage in the states for the GOP is often overlooked, despite bring pronounced. I remember some prognosticators mentioning that this was where dems were really hit the hardest in 2014.

GOP controlled legislators: 31 (23 with GOV control)
Dem controlled legislators: 11 (7 with GOV control)
Split: 8