🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

Madeira election update:

The official campaign for the snap regional elections of 26 May starts this Sunday. The campaign has been, so far, very boring, with little coverage, no polls, and a sense of "whatever". We'll see if this mood changes in the next two weeks. Anyway, here's a summary of the campaigns of the main parties:

PSD - Social Democratic Party

Listening, clarifying and being close to our citizens is something that characterizes our Party, on a daily basis, because it is with them that we work daily, always thinking about what is best for our Earth.
In downtown Funchal, we reiterate, once again, our commitments for the next Legislature. And that is what we remain focused on, towards another electoral victory on May 26th, a victory that is essential for our collective future! We count on everyone! Always for Madeira!

PS - Socialist Party

We need to implement the single regional pass and make public transport free for those under 25 and over 60.
In Machico, with people, we saw that this incentive to use public transport is considered an important contribution to reducing monthly family expenses and accelerating more sustainable mobility in Madeira.
For candidate Ricardo Franco, this initiative is an important step towards generating great financial relief in families' pockets and towards having a Region that increasingly values the environment.

JPP - Together for the People

Élvio Sousa, JPP candidate for Presidency of the Regional Government, once again addressed the issue of #ports in #RAM. A freebie that favored the operator for decades, but even after an independent study said that the operator should pay the Region an annual rent amount of around 4 million euros, the Government of Albuquerque "offered" an affordable rent of around of half a million euros, which he only started paying in 2023.

CH - CHEGA

Dear companions, activists and supporters, Madeirans in general.
Tomorrow our #CHEGA Campaign Tent will be in Funchal from 10:30 between Largo do Chafariz and Largo do Phelps, come out, come and learn about our party and our proposals for Madeira and Madeirans.
-Transparency
-Fight against corruption
-Health
-Housing
-Transport
Between others. These are the flags of CHEGA which states that this time:
- MADEIRA REALLY HAS TO CHANGE!
Join us!!!

CDS - CDS-People's Party

Presentation of CDS-PP candidates for the Regional Legislative Elections, on May 26th.

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition

ALWAYS TOGETHER CELEBRATING APRIL!

IL - Liberal Initiative

MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
Speech by Nuno Morna at the presentation of the Liberal Initiative Candidacy for the Regional Elections.

PAN - People, Animals, Nature

The candidacy, under the motto, “FORCE OF NATURE”, presents its candidates.
The head of the list is Mónica Freitas, just 28 years old.
Together we will fight for a greener and fairer Madeira for everyone!

BE - Left Bloc

It's a love story!
It's Chega that PSD-Madeira likes and it's PSD-Madeira that Chega likes.
In the last elections, Chega was trying to form a coalition with PSD-Madeira.
This time, let's do it differently.
The key to changing Madeira is in the Bloc

[Mike88]

Immigration: Government changes rules for Portuguese speaking immigrants visas and now demands evidence that they have means to survive in Portugal while looking for work.

https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1790070543825207550

Portuguese-speaking citizens who wish to enter Portugal with a CPLP visa will have to prove means of subsistence until they find work, but if they wish they can opt for another visa, which allows movement in Europe, according to a government source.

The Government announced, today, that the rules for Portuguese-speaking citizens (CPLP) that wish to come to Portugal will change. From now on, immigrants from Portuguese-speaking countries will have to show evidence that they have enough means to survive in Portugal while they are searching for work. The government points that everyone is welcome to come to Portugal, but that people have rights and should not end up in poverty and homelessness, which is currently, unfortunately, the outcome of many. The government will also give a choice to immigrants to pick which kind of visa they want, as CPLP visas don't allow entry to other EU countries, while other visas do. The previous rules forced Portuguese-speaking citizens to accept the CPLP visa, which barred them from entering in other EU countries.

Portugal is facing a lot of problems in legalizing immigrants, with the new border control agency, AIMA, already a very controversy decision, having several operational issues with legalization processes just pilling up, the latest forecast is of 500,000 cases yet to be processed, plus, in just 6 months of existence, AIMA has already more than 7,600 legal cases against them due to lack of response and irregularities. Parties are reacting as expected, with the PS, which created this new agency while in government, saying time is needed for things to stabilize, while PSD/CDS says the shutdown of the former border control agency, SEF, was a big mistake.

[Mike88]

The "New Lisbon Airport" saga had a new chapter today: PM Montenegro announced the "definitive" location and that it will be called Luís de Camões International Airport.

Montenegro's statement with the airport announcement

One of the longest soap operas in Portuguese politics, that spanned two different regimes, had a new episode today. PM Montenegro announced that the new Lisbon airport, a projected started in 1960's, will be located in Alcochete, in the south bank of the Tagus river, and it will be called "Luís de Camões International Airport". However, the government says that airport will only be operational in 10-15 years, so, in the meantime, Lisbon's Portela Airport, will have expansion works in order to manage the increase in demand. It will be the only airport of the city, as when it's completed, Portela airport will be shutdown. In terms of costs, the government does not commit to a specific number, but says it will cost between 6-9 billion euros, and regarding this, the PM said that they are studying a solution in which taxpayers will not pay for the construction, but rather the Airports of Portugal company (ANA) through airport taxes. The PM also announced the "resurrection" of the Lisbon-Madrid high-speed railway, that was put aside by former PM Costa, and the construction of a third bridge in the Tagus estuary.

In reaction, the majority of parties "applauded" the government's decision, except CHEGA and PAN: Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) said he totally supports the government's decision, saying it's very important to the country; BE and PCP also agree with the decision but want to know the quid pro quos given to ANA airports; Livre said it's positive that the government followed the studies that pointed to Alcochete; while CHEGA criticized the government for not looking into other options and PAN wants new environmental and safety reports.

10-15 years? Berlin Airport lasted nearly 15 years to be completed and it was an expansion of an existing one. I'm still of the opinion this airport will never be built and I'll only believe it when I see it.

[Mike88]

CHEGA files bizarre criminal complaint against President Marcelo due to his idea of reparations to former colonies, but... it's dead on arrival:

Parliament "throws out" CHEGA's complaint against President Marcelo, with the party being heavily criticized left to right:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1790762939059691761

As expected, CHEGA's "bizarre" criminal complaint against President Marcelo regarding possible money compensations to former Portuguese colonies was rejected by Parliament. Ventura pressed, once again, that President Marcelo was guilty of "treason" due to his statements, but, left to right, all parties trashed Ventura: Parties accused CHEGA and Ventura of creating a "media circus" and of just being hungry for attention and more attention. Accusations of ignorance and hypocrisy were also thrown to CHEGA. On the government's part, Foreign Affairs minister Paulo Rangel rejected any kind of monetary compensation plan to former colonies, but is open to give "apologies" for the mistakes of the past and pointed that the relationship with former colonies cannot be based on resentments. He also announced that the Angolan government is going to rehabilitate a cemetery in Luanda were several Portuguese solders that died during the Colonial War (1961-74) are buried and that a memorial is also planned, pointing out that this is proof of a policy of "reconciliation and not resentment".

Also, during in the afternoon, in the PM Q&A debate, PM Montenegro and Ventura had a very tense confrontation of words. Ventura trashed several government policies, from tax cuts to the low execution of the government in the first 30 days, and Montenegro responded with quite violence to Ventura, accusing him of being "immature and childish", of only thinking about "political jobs" and of being more "Socialist than the Socialist Party". Montenegro also warned Ventura saying that he "may be in an upward trajectory, but one day it will be downward".

[Mike88]

The day was marked by another tense debate in Parliament and a very controversial decision from Speaker Aguiar-Branco:

The debate was about housing with the presence of the Infrastructure minister, Miguel Pinto Luz, but other topics like the new airport were also discussed. Because of the new airport, André Ventura criticized the timetable for the construction of the new Lisbon airport, between 10-15 years, pointing that Istambul new airport was built in just 5 years and that the Turks "are not known for being the most hard working people in the world", which created protests from other parties:

BE immediately criticized Ventura's words, saying he was creating stereotypes that should not be part of the debate. However, Speaker José Aguiar-Branco disagreed with BE and said that in a democratic debate everyone can express themselves as they wish, thus guaranteeing, he said, freedom of speech. He also added he will not be a "censor" to what MPs say. This led the PS caucus leader, Alexandra Leitão, to ask the Speaker if is allowed for a party to call "lazy" or "dumb" to a certain race or ethnicity, in which the Speaker responded yes, as it's freedom of speech and every word said by MPs in this house would be judge by the people in the ballot box.

There was another "weird" moment during this debate when a PSD MP criticized the former PS government's housing policies, and in response, the Infrastructure minister, also from the PSD, "scolded" his own party MP saying that not everything done by the previous PS government was a mistake and that we need to show humility.

[Mike88]

Madeira election campaign update:

As the campaign enters in its final week, it remains somewhat low profile, however, some national party leaders have been campaigning in Madeira:

- Pedro Nuno Santos, PS leader, and Marta Temido, the PS' European election head list candidate, campaigned this Saturday in Funchal with the party's Madeira candidate, Paulo Cafôfo. PNS accused the PSD of only creating confusion in Madeira and that PM Luís Montenegro is "ashamed" of Miguel Albuquerque and that's the reason why Montenegro will not travel to Madeira during the campaign;

- Albuquerque and CHEGA are in a contest on who "flip-flops" more, regarding a possible deal and/or coalition after the elections. Albuquerque has said everything and its contrary regarding this, from there is "no red lines" to CHEGA is an anti-autonomy party so a deal is difficult. CHEGA and its main candidate, Miguel Castro, are following the same "path", with André Ventura saying the party will never support Miguel Albuquerque because of his corruption investigation, however, the party's candidate said, at a RTP debate, that he could be open to support a PSD led government, if the PSD proposes "good solutions", and pressing that he doesn't closes the door at any party:

- But, today, Miguel Castro "erased" parts of his statements in the debate, now saying that the party will not sign any deal with either the PSD or the PS, thus closing the door at some parties after all;

[Mike88]

President Marcelo's approval numbers have reached their lowest level according to a new poll, just 25%:

Duplimétrica-IPESPE poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Q1: President's approval:

30% Disapprove
25% Approve
44% Average
  1% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with reparations to former colonies?

74% No
18% Yes
  8% Undecided

Q3: The President's remarks regarding Luís Montenegro and António Costa were?

53% Inadequate
32% Disrespectful
13% Natural and spontaneous
  2% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 6 and 13 May 2024. Polled 800 votes. MoE of 3.50%

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- The controversy surrounding André Ventura's words and the decision of the Speaker to allow them, had a new chapter today after some PS MPs accused CHEGA MPs of misogyny and of mocking women:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1792884100962906267

The socialist MP highlighted to the "Observador" that the Assembly of the Republic lives in what she calls a "hellish, ingestible daily life" and that the insults that are exchanged in Parliament are "an insult and a permanent insult".

With the "Turksgate" or whatever, still on the news with many people divided regarding the decision of Speaker Aguiar-Branco of not censoring Ventura's remarks, Isabel Moreira, a PS MP, told in an interview to Observador radio that Parliament nowadays has a very "hellish" environment, accusing CHEGA MPs of misogyny, racism and of mocking women, by calling some women MPs "cows" and other insults, like saying to a black MP "Good evening" at noon. Other MPs have confirmed these kind of insults. In response, CHEGA is threatening to file a defamation lawsuit against Isabel Moreira, saying that she needs to show evidence of these claims, or that this is just a "very cheap political attack" from the PS;

- The Government reached a deal with teachers unions, the majority of them at least. Of the 12 unions representing teachers, 7 signed a deal with the government, and 5 refused to sign any deal. The National Federation of Education (FNE) signed the deal with the government and called this day a "historic one". However, more left-wing unions, FENPROF, close to PCP, and STOP!, close to far-left parties, refused to sign a deal, with FENPROF wanting to pursue more negotiations with the government. The government's solution to recover the frozen career and wage progressions of teachers will cost around 300 million euros and half of it will be paid in 2024 and 2025, and the remaing 50% will be paid in 2026 and 2027, with the process starting at 1 September 2024;

- Supporters of the far-right party Rise Up! (Ergue-te in Portuguese), were involved in fighting scenes in front of the national headquarters of the Left Bloc (BE):

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1792866692906820096

A person was attacked this morning during a campaign by the Ergue-te party on Avenida Almirante Reis, in Lisbon.

The scenes happened after a walkabout of the party in an avenue in Lisbon and while the party's candidate for the EP elections, Rui Fonseca e Castro, a judge that become known for being anti-vaxx and Covid denier, was speaking in front of the national headquarters of the Left Bloc. A man then was attacked by several people in the walkabout, right in the middle of the avenue, with party members saying the man in question was insulting them. Last week, Rise Up! campaign was also in the news after invading a meeting that was discussing gender issues in Braga district. BE has already filed a criminal complaint against the those involved in the scenes in front of the party's headquarters;

- The income tax cuts negotiations, between PSD and PS, are falling apart. The PSD agreed to reduce income taxes in lower income brackets, thus conceding to the PS, but the PS is refusing to concede to the PSD's proposal of tax cuts for middle income brackets. The PSD is trying to force a vote on its proposal, which is being criticized by the PS, and putting preassure on CHEGA to vote in favour. However, it's likely that the proposal of income tax cuts to be approved will be the PS one, with the support of CHEGA and left-wing parties;

[Mike88]

Madeira election, Aximage poll for DN Madeira newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with 2023)

38.1% PSD (*)
20.6% PS (-0.7)
16.0% JPP (+5.0)
10.8% CHEGA (+1.9)
  3.1% IL (+0.5)
  2.7% CDS (*)
  2.4% BE (+0.2)
  1.6% PAN (-0.6)
  1.5% CDU (-1.2)
  0.8% Livre (+0.2)
  2.4% Others/Invalid (-2.8 )

Poll conducted between 10 and 17 May 2024. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

*PSD and CDS contested the 2023 election in a coalition that gathered 43.1% of the votes.

[Mike88]

Also this morning, CHEGA's national headquarters was evaquated after a man said he had a bomb. The suspect was arrested:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1793599408971645024

Chega headquarters in Lisbon target of bomb threat. Suspect has already been detained

According to the media, a man with a backpack entered this morning in CHEGA's national headquarters in Lisbon saying he had a bomb. The police was called and the man, which according to the media looked incoherent and making a lot of threats, was arrested. Ventura, campaigning in Madeira for Sunday's snap regional election, said that the man told party workers that he had a bomb in his backpack and wanted to murder him. The police has set up a security perimeter around the party's headquarters and is evaluation if there's a real bomb or not.

[Mike88]

UCP-CESOP for RTP/Público newspaper:  

Vote share %: (Compared with the March 2024 election)

30% PSD/CDS/PPM (+1)
29% PS (+1)
19% CHEGA (+1)
  5% IL (nc)
  5% Livre (+2)
  4% BE (nc)
  3% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  3% Others/Invalid (-5)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 20)

11.3 Luís Montenegro
  9.9 Rui Tavares
  9.8 Pedro Nuno Santos
  9.4 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  9.2 Rui Rocha
  8.9 Mariana Mortágua
  8.0 Paulo Raimundo
  8.0 Inês Sousa Real
  7.1 André Ventura

Government approval:

24% Bad/Very bad
15% Good/Very good
51% Average
10% Undecided
  
Q: Will the government last 4 years or end before the end of its term?

64% It will fall before the end of its term
25% It will last 4 years
11% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 13 and 18 May 2024. Polled 965 votes. MoE of 3.20%.

[Mike88]

Also this morning, CHEGA's national headquarters was evaquated after a man said he had a bomb. The suspect was arrested:

Update on this story:

The police didn't find any bomb or explosives in the suspect's backpack, and unlilke it was reported by the media, the suspect wasn't arrested but instead sent to a hospital due to his "anomalous behavior".

[Mike88]

why is Luís Montenegro the most popular?

It depends on the polling company. For example, today's Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %: (after 6.3% of undecideds are excluded)

24.7% PS (-4.0)
23.7% PSD/CDS/PPM (-0.6)
17.4% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  9.4% Livre (+3.7)
  9.0% IL (+1.1)
  8.2% BE (-1.5)
  3.2% PAN (+0.3)
  2.5% CDU (+0.2)
  1.9% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 5)

3.2 Rui Tavares (+0.2)
3.0 Luís Montenegro (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rocha (+0.1)
2.9 Pedro Nuno Santos (+0.1)
2.8 Mariana Mortágua (+0.1)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.4)
2.5 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.4 André Ventura (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 20 May 2024. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

As you can see, it depends on the polling method, but Montenegro is still one of the most popular party leaders, alongside Livre's Rui Tavares, and closely followed by IL's Rui Rocha and PS' Pedro Nuno Santos. He's still a new PM and maybe people still give him the "benefit of the doubt". What both polls match is in the big fall in popularity of President Marcelo, which was already expected.

[Mike88]

Former PM António Costa heard by the Public Prosecutor this Friday afternoon:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1794073138533118067

The former prime minister was heard at his request by the DCIAP, six months after the Attorney General's Office announced that he was a suspect in Operation Influencer and, consequently, resigned.

At Costa's request, the Lisbon Public Prosecutor office, DCIAP, heard the arguments of the former PM this afternoon. He wasn't heard as a formal suspect, nor declared as one, and according to his attorneys, Costa clarified every single doubts asked by the Prosecutor. Nearly two months ago, as he was leaving the swearing in ceremony of PM Montenegro, Costa told reporters that he had instructed his attorneys to request a hearing to the Public Prosecutor at the earliest date.

[Mike88]

Campaign ends in Madeira:

Parties ended their campaign events during the last few hours. The main issue in the last few days has been the governability of the islands after the elections. Every party is "shutting" their doors on the PSD because of Miguel Albuquerque, with Albuquerque saying that one thing is what parties say before an election, another thing is what happens after an election. On the left, the only poll of the campaign seems to show a close race for second place between PS and JPP, but take polls with EXTREME caution. The PS is hopeful in ending the near 50-year rule of the PSD in Madeira, and says that people on the street want change. But, what if JPP surpasses the PS? Further on the right, CHEGA is going back and forward on what to do after election day, "support the PSD or not, that's the question". Ventura says "no" because of Montenegro's "no is no" regarding CHEGA in the mainland, but, what happens in Madeira, stays in Madeira? We'll know on Sunday.

The last campaign events of the main parties:

PSD - Social Democratic Party

After our great Walkabout, what we did together was simply apotheotic, in another memorable Rally of our Party!
This is the strength that Madeira needs to move forward, towards a better future!
Thank you to all Madeirans and Porto-Santenses!
Thank you to all our Militants, who, once again, set an example!
Let's continue together, towards another victory on May 26th!
A victory for Madeira and our future!
We count on everyone!

PS - Socialist Party

Watch the closing rally of the PS-Madeira candidacy campaign for the Regional Legislative Elections.
Let's Turn the Page in Madeira!

JPP - Together for the People

THIS IS THE MOMENT || We are on the verge of conquering the islands of Madeira and Porto Santo
May 26th, let's go together, forward and without fear!

CH - CHEGA

It is on the streets that the true essence of a people is revealed. On the island of Madeira, there are more and more people who believe in change.
Next Sunday, Madeirans, no one stays at home: it's to vote, it's to win! #CHEGA

CDS - CDS-People's Party

Campaign action in the center of Funchal
#responsibilityandrenovation #IBelieve #cdsppp #asafevote #regionais2024 #26May

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition (PCP/PEV)

In this electoral campaign initiative in which several candidates participated, the Regional Representative, Sílvia Vasconcelos, also took the floor, who saluted each of the supporters of this candidacy, highlighting the fact that it is made up of «serious people fully dedicated to the defense public interest”.

IL - Liberal Initiative

WALKABOUT REGIONALS 2024
On May 26th, help MAKE A DIFFERENCE!
On May 26th, vote for the LIBERAL INITIATIVE

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

On our penultimate day of the campaign, we took our measures and proposals to the streets of Funchal! We never tire of repeating how important it is to know who you are voting for and why they should vote for us
Only 2 days left to make the big decision. And we want to remind you of the importance of everyone going to vote!
May 26th! VOTE FOR THE FORCE OF NATURE VOTE PAN

BE - Left Bloc

Thus ended the Bloc's campaign for next Sunday's regional elections. A campaign of joy carried out by young and less young people. On Sunday, the strength of the Bloc vote will be a catalyst for political change in the region. With more Deputies from the Bloc, we will force the construction of a governance alternative that solves the problems of Madeirans and Portosanto residents. Next Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda votes, the second on the ballot.

[Mike88]

As a fellow Southern European, all I can say is that Ventura claiming Turks are not known for being the most hard-working people in the world is a bit of a pot calling the kettle black moment.

This case has actually made me change my vote for the European elections. I was deciding to vote IL, because I like Cotrim Figueiredo and Montenegro's performance has been quite disappointing, but after last week, I've decided to vote tactically in AD, as, IMO, the PS doesn't deserve to win this. This controversy was so forced by the PS and the left, and made, once again, Ventura play the "victim card", which was exactly what he always pretended to do.

[Mike88]

Election day in Madeira:

254,522 registered voters can cast a ballot in this election. Polls opened at 8am and will close at 7pm in 292 precincts. At 7pm, local time, RTP will publish an exit poll. Turnout updates will also be published at 1pm and 5pm.

Official results page: https://www.regionais-madeira2024.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2024: 20.22% (-0.76%)
2023: 20.98%
2019: 20.97%
2015: 17.21%
2011: 23.47%
2007: 24.02%

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2024: 40.52% (+0.62%)
2023: 39.90%
2019: 40.79%
2015: 37.48%
2011: 43.46%
2007: 44.65%

[Mike88]

1 hour until polls close. RTP is reporting that the movement in polling places seems to have decreased a bit after 5pm, the exact hour of the start of the Portuguese Cup final between FC Porto and Sporting.

[Mike88]

Oh right today they vote (again) in Madeira. I am vaguely surprised turnout is keeping up with last time and people aren't getting tired. Did anyone try and make the election coincide with the European one?

For some "mysterious" reason, in Portugal, those who call election dates don't like two different elections on the same day. Yeah, turnout seems to be in line to stand at 52-53%.

[Mike88]

RTP turnout projection: 51-56%

(Trying to follow the Madeira election and rooting for Porto in the cup final, all at once)

[Mike88]

RTP/UCP-CESOP exit poll:

33-38% PSD
21-25% PS
16-19% JPP
  8-11% CHEGA
    2-5% CDS
    1-3% IL
    1-3% PAN
    1-3% BE
    1-3% CDU

Seat projection:

16-21 PSD
11-14 PS
  7-10 JPP
    3-5 CHEGA
    1-2 CDS
    1-1 IL
    0-1 PAN
    0-1 BE
    0-1 CDU

The PSD wins, but every possible coalition is on the table at this point. Let's wait for the results.

[Mike88]

6 out of 54 parishes counted:

40.6% PSD
28.9% PS
14.8% JPP
  6.6% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  1.4% IL
  0.8% CDU
  0.7% PAN
  0.5% BE

(As I was posting this, Porto scored!!!)

[Mike88]

17 out 54 parishes counted:

45.7% PSD, 1 seat
23.8% PS
11.1% JPP
  7.6% CHEGA
  3.5% CDS
  1.5% IL
  1.0% PAN
  0.7% BE
  0.6% CDU