🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

Madeira election campaign: 14 Parties/coalitions will be on the ballot in the 26 May snap election:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right
CH - CHEGA, far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
JPP - Together for the People, center
L - Livre, center-left
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PS - Socialist Party, center-left
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic

[Mike88]

Nominee for the deputy to the Finance minister removes herself after it was reported she is under trial for fraud in EU funds:

https://twitter.com/rtpnoticias/status/1780205244061794498

After the media reported that the Minister of Finance hired a former PSD MP who is being tried for the crime of fraud as deputy, Patrícia Dantas herself decided not to take on those roles.

The story broke this morning in Correio da Manhã newspaper. The nominee for deputy to the finance minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Patrícia Dantas, is under trial in a long running case regarding fraud in EU funds, since 2017. Just a few hours after the story broke, the finance ministry "dropped" Ms. Dantas and sent a press release saying that she had decided to not assume the role of deputy to the minister.

[Mike88]

Headlines of the day:

- Appeals Court "erases" the Prosecutor's case in the Operation that brought down Costa's government:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1780569156439384162

The Lisbon Court of Appeal decided this Wednesday (17) the appeals of the Public Ministry and defendants Vítor Escária and Diogo Lacerda Machado, within the scope of Operation Influencer.

In another "blow" to the Public Prosecutor, the Lisbon Court of Appeal has ruled that the Prosecutor, in the Operation "Influencer" that brought down António Costa's government last November 2023, has no case and that there is no evidence of crimes being committed. The Court says that Prosecutors failed to prove evidence supporting any crime and eliminated basically all the penalties against the suspects. The Court, however, points that the lack of legislation on lobbying can create or envisage dubious situations like those given by the Prosecutor, and criticized government officials for their informality and for using restaurants in order to do business. The question is now, where does this leave António Costa? His well known run for Presidency of the European Council just had a major "boost", but will the Prosecutor speed up/close his investigation or put it "on hold" as it's customary? We'll see;

- The ongoing "IRSgate" had another episode today: The Opposition forced an emergency debate in Parliament in order to press the government on the confusion around tax cuts. A feud began before the debate as the Finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, would not be present due to a trip to the IMF in Washington and the government would be represented by the Parliamentary Affairs minister, Pedro Duarte. The Opposition criticized the absence of the Finance minister and pressed on the accusations of "hoax", "manipulation" and "illusionism". On their part, the Government pressed that they didn't lie and that the tax cut will be above 300 million euros. However, the Opposition wasn't convinced with the minister's announcement and also got few answers as minister Pedro Duarte didn't answer the majority of questions from Opposition parties;

- And in small parties news, a weird one: Joana Amaral Dias will be ADN's main candidate for the European Parliament elections:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1780318137306751178

Joana Amaral Dias is the head of the ADN list for the European elections

The party that surprised everybody on the 10 March general elections, ADN, surprised us again. Why? Because their main candidate in the EP elections will be Joana Amaral Dias, a well known pundit/public figure. And why is this pick such a surprise? Because of Joana Amaral Dias' political background: Started as a BE member and MP, supported Mário Soares' presidential bid in 2006, led a leftwing coalition in 2015, then led a center-right candidacy for Lisbon mayor in 2017 and will now lead a list of a party that, well, makes CHEGA look moderate. On a video on social media, she said she couldn't "be able to sit idly by" faced by the "injustices", "threats to peace and to freedoms". Quite a shift this one;

[Mike88]

Joana Amaral Dias is the living proof that the horseshoe theory is real.

That's true. It will be funny if in the debates she positions herself against some of ADN's policies.

Also, this is hilarious: "Zombie" party PURP accuses Amaral Dias of betrayal because she promised to lead their party list first.

Fernando Loureiro, founder of the United Party of Retirees and Pensioners (PURP), says he is "outraged" and claims to have been "betrayed" and victim of a "plot", after Joana Amaral Dias was announced as head of the party's list National Democratic Alternative (ADN) to the European elections. The former president of PURP also claims that the party, currently called (A)TUA, underwent a transformation, with the promise that the psychologist and former deputy would represent the political force in the June elections, which did not materialize.
(...)
Fernando Loureiro says he was contacted by people who were represented on behalf of Joana Amaral Dias, with the proposal to "grow PURP" and with the promise of investment and "qualified people". According to the politician, these "emissaries" of the former deputy are Bruno Monarca and Miguel Montenegro, clinical psychologist and psychotherapist, who is part of the team at the Carlos Amaral Dias Psychoanalysis Clinic, with whom he has always had contact, although the same would not join the party.
(...)
"You - you and your associates - caused the party to end (...) you just wanted to run in the European elections, but with another party", he argues.

The biggest surprise would come with the recent announcement that Joana Amaral Dias would represent the ADN in the European elections. "I was betrayed", considers Fernando Loureiro. "They ruined the party when they got involved in this. They made me look bad in front of the people who have known me since day one", he laments.

"He was a big fan of hers and he betrayed me," he said. "I'm being bombarded by all the members who knew me and thought that Joana Amaral Dias would be at the head of the party", he added.
(...)

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV on the 50 years of the 1974 revolution:

Q1: Opinion on these statements:

Strong leader without elections or parliament: 43% Disagree; 34% Agree
Until 1974, Portugal was better in terms of its identity: 43% Disagree; 29% Agree
Portugal would be great again if it returned to Salazar's ideals: 54% Disagree; 23% Agree
Talk of anti-fascism is an outdated thing: 36% Agree; 35% Disagree

Q2: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

57% A lot/acceptable
41% Very little/none
  2% Undecided

Q3: Portugal is a democracy...

44% With a lot of defects
42% With small defects
  8% Full democracy
  4% It's not a democracy
  2% Undecided

Q4: Compared with 1974, rate the improvement of the following areas:

Healthcare: 74% Better; 13% Worse
Standard of living: 71% Better; 16% Worse
Education: 71% Better; 17% Worse
Social Security: 68% Better; 13% Worse
Economy: 62% Better; 19% Worse
Environment: 60% Better; 20% Worse
Social coexistence: 57% Better; 24% Worse
National Independence: 51% Better; 20% Worse
Cultural heritage protection: 48% Better; 21% Worse
Housing: 47% Better; 34% Worse
Social inequality: 46% Better; 23% Worse
Regional inequality: 42% Better; 22% Worse
Justice: 40% Better; 36% Worse
Unemployment: 42% Worse; 34% Better
Crime and security: 66% Worse; 19% Better
Corruption: 66% Worse; 14% Better

Q5: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

45% A lot
39% Considerable
13% Very little
  1% No change
  2% Undecided

Q6: And how would you rate these changes?

56% More positive than negative
35% As positive as it was negative
  9% More negative than positive

Poll conducted between 20 March and 4 April 2024. Polled 1,206 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

[Mike88]

After the "IRSgate", Montenegro presents an income tax cut of 348 million euros:

Press conference after the cabinet meeting

After several days of controversy regarding the tax cut that was perceived as one thing but in reality was another, PM Montenegro announced the details of the tax cut. Approved this morning in a cabinet meeting, the income tax cut is worth 348 million euros, that adds to the 1,1 billion already cut in the current budget, approved by the PS last November 2023. It will have an impact until the 8th bracket, with Montenegro saying it will benefit more those who earn less. In reaction, opposition parties trashed the announcement saying it is "uncomfortable, insufficient, unfair and illusory".

[Mike88]

some of these are extremely concerning.

Some of the numbers are actually an improvement compared with a similar poll made 10 years ago, in 2014, and even another one made 20 years ago. For example, in 2014, just 41% rated the changes in society after 1974 as more positive than negative, and it's now at 56%; In 2014, just 25% were satisfied with democracy, and it's now at 57%.

More info here.

[Mike88]

Weekend of party congresses:

- CDS-PP held their congress in Viseu and it was completely low profile, with Nuno Melo, incumbent Defense minister, being reelected with 89% of the delegates votes. In his speech, Melo criticized the left for the "social crisis" that the AD government inherited and announced that the government will create a commission to mark the 50 years of 25th November 1975 coup, next year. Melo also pointed that a vote for CHEGA is a vote for Putin and against Ukraine. In his other speech, at the opening of the congress yesterday, Melo applauded the return of CDS to Parliament and that CDS was crucial for the narrow victory of AD last March 10th;

Nuno Melo's opening speech.

- With just a month until Madeira's snap regional elections, PSD-Madeira held their congress also this weekend. There was a strong turnout, but tensions were high and the divisions in the party were clear. Albuquerque said he has no red lines regarding parties, clearly pointing at CHEGA, although he said the PSD's main rivals are PS and CHEGA, confused?. However, this wasn't well received by many within the party and Albuquerque was criticized in several speeches. Albuquerque also created more controversy for saying that some people in the party cannot be resentful and that the internal elections are in the past. Some people in the hall booed Albuquerque because of these remarks. The Public Prosecutor was also very criticized in several speeches by many party members. To note that Luís Montenegro, PM and national PSD leader, was absent for being in a state visit to Cape Verde and the party's national caucus leader, Hugo Soares, was also absent due to health reasons. The national party was represented by Miguel Pinto Luz, Infrastructures minister;

Part of Albuquerque's speech.

[Mike88]

Post quoted from the European Parliament election thread:

Portugal: PS and AD head list candidates announced. Former health minister Marta Temido for the PS; TV pundit Sebastião Bugalho for AD.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1782480863772438677

Marta Temido will be head of the PS list for the European Championships

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1782485031195160962

Sebastião Bugalho will be the head of AD's list for the European Elections. CNN Portugal knows that the invitation was made by Luís Montenegro and Sebastião Bugalho's name could be announced this Monday.

Frankly, two very weak candidates, but Bugalho as AD candidate?? Whatever.

[Mike88]

What in the world are these choices. It's like they both want to lose.

Porto mayor Rui Moreira seems to have been invited to be second in the list and he refused. Or first or nothing. And that he was upset because the PSD build up momentum in the press that he was set and done to be the lead candidate. So, Bugalho was a last minute pick.

Marta Temido, besides being a polarizing figure do to her role as Health minister (2018-22), was poised to face Lisbon Mayor Carlos Moedas in the 2025 local elections. And she was forging her path to that election, and now this decision to go to Europe, it's also a strange shift. Maybe the PS has data that shows that anyone who faces Moedas in 2025 will be cannon fodder.

I don't know, I'm starting to lean in favour of Cotrim Figueiredo (IL).

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- The 8-year "Tutti-Frutti" corruption investigation had a new chapter. The Public Prosecutor has asked for the removal of the Parliamentary immunity of 3 PSD MPs who have long been suspects in this investigation: Luís Newton, Carlos Eduardo Reis and Margarida Saavedra. The three are expected to be formally charged afterwards. The investigation, that started in 2016, investigates shady deals between PS and PSD in Lisbon city hall in exchange for both parties to secure "safe" seats in local government. Other suspects, from both parties, are also expected, according to the media, to be officialy charged by the Prosecutor;

- The EP election picks of the the two main parties are dominating headlines: The AD's pick, Sebastião Bugalho, is "raising eyebrows" in the PSD and many are also criticizing the way Luís Montenegro treated Porto's mayor, Rui Moreira, in the whole process. For months, Moreira was seen as the "presumptive" candidate of the AD, but in the end that wasn't the case. Moreira says that there are "no hard feelings" regarding this, but criticizes the PSD for the "rumours" about his candidacy that they never denied. In the PS, Pedro Nuno Santos "fired" the entire European parliamentary group of the Socialists, and this is not being well received by the current PS MEPs, who were totally caught by surprise. Nuno Santos, however, refuses to label the list as a "rupture" with the present;

[Mike88]

some of these are extremely concerning.

Some of the numbers are actually an improvement compared with a similar poll made 10 years ago, in 2014, and even another one made 20 years ago. For example, in 2014, just 41% rated the changes in society after 1974 as more positive than negative, and it's now at 56%; In 2014, just 25% were satisfied with democracy, and it's now at 57%.

More info here.

I assume this is influenced by Portugal being in an obviously worse state in 2014, when the sovereign debt crisis was the present and not the past. I am not sure if this fact is relieving or even more concerning, but I like to be an optimist.

Yes, in 2014, the country was in the tail end of the sovereign debt crisis and there was a feeling of letdown, fury, a pretty misarable mood. 10 years later, the mood is better, although many problems remain, or have gotten worse, like housing or public services. But, social issues like high unemployment or economic downturn, that were dominant in 2014, are not the case as of now.

[Mike88]

Do you have comparisons to 2004? That might be more apples-to-apples.

Yes, they have that info:

Q1: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

2004: 39% A lot/acceptable; 58% Very little/none

2014: 25% A lot/acceptable; 72% Very little/none

2024: 57% A lot/acceptable; 41% Very little/none

Q2: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

2004: 39% A lot; 33% Considerable; 23% Very little; 4% No change

2014: 41% A lot; 45% Considerable; 11% Very little; 2% No change

2024: 45% A lot; 39% Considerable; 13% Very little; 1% No change

Other comparisons:

Q3: How should the political regime before the 25 April be remembered?

2004: 17% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

2014: 18% A period with more positive things than negative; 28% A period with both positive and negative things; 42% A period with more negative things than positive

2024: 20% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

Q4: How should the 25 April go down in history?

2004: 58% More positive than negative; 23% Both positive and negative; 14% More negative than positive

2014: 58% More positive than negative; 27% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

2024: 56% More positive than negative; 32% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

Q5: The way the transition to democracy was made is a source of pride?

2004: 77% Yes; 14% No

2014: 79% Yes; 12% No

2024: 81% Yes; 13% No

[Mike88]

In the meantime...

President Marcelo puts "his foot in his mouth", again: Marcelo labels PM Montenegro as "rural" and "unpredictable", and former PM Costa as "slow" because he's "oriental".

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1783190700471038338

The President of the Republic said that the new Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, has “rural behavior” and that António Costa was “slow” because he is oriental, in a meeting with international journalists at Vila Galé Ópera, in Lisbon.

President Marcelo is being news, again, for "speaking too much". In a foreign press dinner, yesterday 23 April, Marcelo made a series of comments about current affairs in Portugal, that were tapped by someone and have now been leaked to the national press: He said he's no longer speaking to his son after the whole Brazilian twins scandal, and then started comparing Montenegro and Costa. Of Montenegro, he said the PM has "rural behaviors", that he's an "old school politician" with different timings and that he's unpredictable. Costa, on the other hand, according to Marcelo, is much more predictable, but at the same time "slow", probably because he's "oriental", as, according to Marcelo "orientals are slow". Marcelo added that Montenegro will give him "much more work" than Costa, as the latter talked a lot with him, while Montenegro doesn't.

Marcelo being Marcelo... But, com'on, this is becoming embarrassing and sad.

Oh okay, so the pro-democracy, pro-Revolution sentiment has actually steadily grown over time. Very good to see.

Seems like most likely the product of generational replacement, with older people nostalgic of the Estado Novo dying out.

The numbers seem broadly stable, only the satisfaction with democracy has shifted over time, but the environments during these periods may have had an impact: In 2014 there was the bailout, economic problems, high unemployment; In 2004, economic stagnation, a lot of scandals, a sense of being stuck.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

A series of events will, or have, occurer during the day. The media coverage is still focused on Marcelo's controversial comments, on a dinner for foreign press in Portugal, regarding Costa/Montenegro, the Prosecutor, the possibility of financial compensations to former colonies, something an official source of the government labeled as "toxic and inappropriate". The media is criticizing a lot Marcelo for his comments.

The day started with a military parade in Terreiro do Paço square in downtown Lisbon:

The ceremonies then continued in Parliament, with the traditional speeches by political parties and the President of the Republic:

PAN, the first party to speak, remembered the legacy of the 25 April, that during today has a new meaning due to the ongoing war in Europe, climate change and the rise of political forces that jeopardize human rights; CDS criticized Marcelo's idea of compensating former colonies, saying that "history is history" and that "our duty is the future"; Livre leader Rui Tavares talked about his mother's nightmares with Salazar and his uncle arrest by PIDE, saying that "fear supported the regime" until one day that "a man" had a dream that created the most "beautiful revolution" in the 20th century; PCP said that the revolution was a "dream", that constructed the hope for a better life; BE said that the 25 April saved the country and criticized the "Salazar mourners" and "former regime nostalgics"; IL, like CDS, criticized Marcelo's tone regarding the former colonies saying that "history is not debt"; CHEGA, rather Ventura, didn't had a prepared speech and gave an impromptu speech. He said all the freedoms conquered have been lost or been leftdown, talked about the current "rotten regime in Portugal" and also criticized Marcelo for the colonies controversy; PS said that the 25 April is not "only history or memory, but victory" and criticized those who want to cut women rights; The PSD said that parties should "refuse to allow extremists to radicalize society" and that much more than remembering the past, we should "renew a commitment to the future".

Speaker Aguiar-Branco said that if the 25 April had failed, the country would have "a worse tomorrow", and paid homage to the last victims of PIDE during the 25 April 1974, which were assassinated by shots fired from the political police headquarters. President Marcelo said "we must have the humility to always prefer democracy, even imperfect, to dictatorship", and paid an homage to the "fathers of democracy", Soares, Sá Carneiro, Cunhal, Freitas do Amaral and also Ramalho Eanes.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

Alongside the state protocol ceremonies, the traditional march through downtown Lisbon also took place. This year, the turnout appears to have been the highest in recent decades, with people filling the entire Liberty Avenue and the Restauradores Square:

https://twitter.com/sicnoticias/status/1783855757546463298

“It is not possible to give a certain number, but it will most likely be one of the biggest ever”: this is how SIC Notícias reporters described the sea of people who paraded in Lisbon on the 50th anniversary of the 25th of April.

The aerial images captured by SIC Notícias show Avenida da Liberdade completely filled, from the Marquês de Pombal roundabout to Restauradores.

[Mike88]

First poll after the election:

Intercampus poll for CM/Negócios newspapers and CMTV:

Vote share %: (after 7.4% of undecideds are excluded and compared with the March 2024 election results)

28.7% PS (+0.7)
24.3% PSD/CDS/PPM (-4.5)
15.6% CHEGA (-2.5)
  9.7% BE (+5.3)
  7.9% IL (+3.0)
  5.7% Livre (+2.5)
  2.9% PAN (+0.9)
  2.3% CDU (-0.9)
  2.9% Others/Invalid (-4.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 April 2024. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Government says "NO" to President Marcelo on compensations to former colonies:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1784277472923861460

Government responds to Marcelo and says there is no "reparation process" for former colonies

After Marcelo's controversial statements regarding compensations to former colonies, earlier this week, and with the President pressing on the topic today, saying that the country needs to repair the consequences of colonialism, even giving suggestions like debt pardons, cooperation and/or credit lines, the government gave an official response. Luís Montenegro's government said, in a statement, that there are no previous or current plans in this matter, following the line of previous governments, pressing that the Government, and the President of the Republic, have been having "gestures and cooperation programs for the recognition of historical truth with exemption and impartiality". The government also listed a series of projects financed by the Portuguese State in former colonies, like reconstruction of heritage sites.

[Mike88]

First poll after the election

PS back ahead already?

Well, the last few weeks have not been a "success" for the new government, to put it mildly. However, the poll still has both PS and AD within the margin of error, so it's basically a tie, just like the March election results were. Plus, take Portuguese polls with a grain of salt, as in this poll, BE, and also IL, have odd results that don't make sense, but Intercampus has a history of oversampling minor parties, especially BE and IL.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- 17 parties and coalitions are on the ballot for the 9 June 2024 European Parliament elections:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology, European group

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing, none
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing, GUE/NGL
CH - CHEGA, far-right, ID
E - Rise Up, far-right, none
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right, Renew
L - Livre, center-left, Greens/EFA
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, left-wing, none
MPT - Earth Party, center-right, EPP
NC - We, the Citizens, center-right, Renew
ND - New Right, rightwing, none
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left, Greens/EFA
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing, GUE/NGL
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - AD - Democratic Alliance, center-right, EPP
PS - Socialist Party, center-left, S&D
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left, none
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic, none
VP - Volt Portugal, center-left, Volt Europe

- The day was also marked by the long running controversy surrounding the financial situation of the Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting industry in Portugal, as the Government fired the current management, nominated by the PS:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1784994243099885595

Government dismisses provider of Santa Casa da Misericórdia

The AD government has "fired" the current administration of Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting/lottery business, due to the bad financial situation of the institution. The current administration, nominated by the PS and headed by fomer PS Health minister Ana Jorge, already inherited a "ruinous" financial situation with the Santa Casa in near bankruptcy after the administration before Ms. Jorge, invested in betting deals in Brazil and everything went bust, making the institution lose millions and millions of euros. The then administration then entered in "blame war" with the previous PS government, with the then government saying they knew nothing about the deals, while the administration pressed that the government was always informed. Because of the bad situation, Santa Casa was receiving "money injections" by the State to be at float and, now, the Government "fired" the whole administration citting no strategic plans plus cuts in social supports for people in need. The Government will now have to nominate a new administration, but accusations of this being a "political cleansing" are starting.

[Mike88]

Day of tough accusations between PS and PSD:

- On the cabinet briefing, this Thursday afternoon, Finance Minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, accused the former PS government of signing spending bills worth 1 billion euros that were not programmed by the budget:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1786024493439455432

Deficit of 600 million in March: "The budget situation is much worse than the previous Government announced"

The Finance minister said that the previous government, besides leaving some social services in a state of "chaos", he said, also failed to control spending while it was under a caretaker capacity. In fact, the last budget numbers until March 2024, shows that in just 3 months, the surplus has turned into a deficit of around 300 millions euros. Miranda Sarmento pressed that the numbers are worse than what has been announced by the PS and these millions and millions of euros of signed expenses are not within the budget. In response, former Finance minister of the PS, Fernando Medina, accuses Miranda Sarmento of being "unprepared" for the job and of spreading "falsehoods";

- At the same time, the Government faced another "defeat" in Parliament as PS and CHEGA voted to end tolls in several highways:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1786080826997792860

The PS proposal aims to end tolls on the A4 - Transmontana and Túnel do Marão, A13 and A13-1 - Pinhal Interior, A22 - Algarve, A23 - Beira Interior, A24 - Interior Norte, A25 - Beiras Litoral and Alta and A28 - - Minho on the sections between Esposende and Antas and between Neiva and Darque.

It was a very schizophrenic debate, this one of ending/reducing highway tolls. The Government had a proposal to reduce prices in highway tools, while PS had a proposal to end tolls in highways that, prior to 2011, were free. Tolls in these formerly free highways were introduced by PM José Sócrates (PS) in 2011 and in the last 9 years, the PS refused to end tolls in these highways, but now, the PS itself proposed to end them. CHEGA was at first against the idea of ending these tolls, but at the last minute, Ventura changed his mind and decided to vote alongside the PS. The PSD/CDS are pressing more and more on the "negative government coalition" between PS and CHEGA, accusing the PS of blocking the government and of hypocrisy for their change of position. An accusation also supported by all parties, left to right, that despite supporting the PS proposal, the Socialists change in position is embarrassing. The proposal passed with the votes of PS, CHEGA, BE, PCP, Livre and PAN, with only PSD, CDS voting against and IL abstaining. This measure is set to cost the State between 157 to 180 million euros;

Well, if nothing changes, I will have no highway tolls next year. But, I will only believe it when I see it.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- The last few days have been very tense politicaly. The "clash" between PS and PSD regarding the deficit is not going away, with the PS insisting that the current Finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, knows "nothing" about public finances, while the government insists that Costa's government, under a caretaker capacity, signed more than 1 billion euros in expenses beyond the budget. The media is reporting that in the last 3 months of Costa's government, 1,2 billion euros in new expenses were signed and that the monthly budget updates show this. The PS presses that there is a difference between the numbers given to the EU and those in cash. Who's right? Only time will tell.

- Proof of this "surprise" budget info, seems to be the gridlock in the negotiations between the Government and several unions, from police, to teachers and others. Police unions are rejecting the government's proposal to increase supports to police officers, saying it is an "outrage", the government proposes a 1,050 yearly support, while unions demand a monthly 1,026 support. Negotiations will continue, but the mood is tense. On teachers, the government will start giving back frozen career and wage progressions in September, but only 20% per year. Unions wanted more and point that in the process, teachers will lose some rights;

- The "negative coalitions" between PS and CHEGA are also in the news, with Pedro Nuno Santos rejecting any kind of coalition and pointing that, in the last 30 days, the PS in opposition did more than the PSD in government and that never has a government started this badly. PM Montenegro, in a speech at a dinner, said that despite all of the "negative coalitions" and "deficit surprises", the government is firm, even though one of his government members, Secretary of State for Agriculture, Emídio Sousa, told party members in a meeting that "new elections will happen soon". Adding to this, one of Costa's former Finance Ministers, João Leão (2020-22), said in an interview that without a majority and with the constant votes against the government in Parliament, things could go out of control and undermine public accounts;

- The Madeira snap election has been very low profile, but, in the last few days it was revealed that CHEGA's main candidate, Miguel Castro, was caught, by the police, driving under alchool influence and paid a 500 euros fine. The case is still not closed and Mr. Castro can still be punished with a driving ban;

[Mike88]

CHEGA files bizarre criminal complaint against President Marcelo due to his idea of reparations to former colonies, but... it's dead on arrival:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1787900031766511830

Chega advances with complaint against the President of the Republic

After President Marcelo's "trainwreck" statements two weeks ago, on possivel money reparations to former Portuguese colonies, Ventura has been constantly accusing Marcelo of "betrayal to the homeland", and warned that he could file a criminal complaint against the President. Many "rolled their eyes" to this bizarre threath as it doesn't have any legal path, but, this Tuesday, Ventura announced that the party would indeed file a criminal complaint against President Marcelo for crimes of betrayal to the homeland, and pressed that several legal experts agree with the party, but refused to name "these" legal experts. Ventura accused Marcelo of making serious accusations saying that many people told him that Marcelo's remarks were a "betrayal of Portugal, its memory and its history" and that the President no longer represents the national interest.

Of course this will go nowhere, as even CHEGA's caucus was divided on this move and even Ventura, himself a well respected law expert, showed in his press statement, doubts of his own decision. Plus, it needs a 2/3 majority to pass in Parliament and PSD and PS will block it. Just another ludicrous presentation from CHEGA.

[Mike88]

A few more updates:

- Government approves support for poorer pensioners, but PS says the government is "stealing" their policies:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1788557115570655526

Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly increases by 50 euros in June

PM Montenegro announced this afternoon a series of policies directed to poorer pensioners, from an increase of the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly (CSI) to 600 euros, free prescription drugs for pensioners with this support and the scrapping of the rule which relates offspring's income to the allocation of this support. Montenegro says that this policy is a "justice policy" that it will reach to 145,000 pensioners and will start as of next June. The PS says that this is a good policy but points that the government is using their policies, with caucus leader Alexandra Leitão saying "it's a PS policy, not an AD one";

- The government faced another "defeat" in Parliament, this time regarding housing as CHEGA sided with the PS and approved the Socialists' tax policies for housing. The housing debate was called by IL in order to revoke the controversial "More Housing" package from 2023, but the PSD did not join the Liberals and CHEGA decided to support the PS' tax policies of deductions of rents in income tax. CHEGA also rejected the PSD/CDS housing policy advise to the government;

- And at the same time, PSD and PS are trying to reach a deal regarding the IRS tax cuts fiasco from two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1788339768373227820

PSD admits calibrating IRS reduction and changing the lower levels. Negotiations with the PS are already underway

Two weeks ago, the government lost the "first round" in Parliament regarding tax cuts as the Socialists' proposal approved, again with the help of CHEGA. Now, the PSD is negotiating with the PS a "common solution", but, here both parties are trying different tactics: PSD wants to give the image of a "dialogue" party, while the PS does not want to be seen as too attached to the PSD and instead is suggesting presenting their own final tax solution;

How will this end? Well, everyone is coming to the conclusion that a January 2025 snap election is becoming a foregone conclusion. The EP election results could very well decide the fate of this Government.

[Mike88]

After the housing vote defeat, the Government presents a new housing package called "Build Portugal":

The Government's press conference announcing the policies

PM Montenegro presented this afternoon a new housing policy package, called "Build Portugal", that erases and changes many of the housing policies presented by former PM Costa in his "More housing" policies a year ago. The policy package has 30 measures that, according to the government, will be implemented in the next four months. Some of the policies are: Changes in soil laws allowing the use of rustic land to build houses; Credit lines for "build to rent" schemes; VAT reduction to 6% for housing rehabilitation and construction of houses with limits in cost; Speed up the construction of 25,000 new houses; Repeal of the mandatory lease of vacant houses; Repeal of Airbnb taxes and devolution to city halls of the power to issue licenses for new Airbnbs; Exemption of housing taxes for young people until 35 years old;

Luís Montenegro said that not all is bad, regarding current housing policies, but much more needs to be done, inviting all parties to give their contribution saying he's open to add some Opposition policies to the housing strategy. He added that the new policies intent to give more "confidence" to the sector, pointing that Costa's previous policies damaged a lot the trust in the State.