Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Mike88]

Podemos got PSOED real hard.

Good riddance.

[Mike88]

And the threats started:

Puigdemont threatens to bring down Sanchéz government in the next budget or in a possible motion of censorship.

The former Catalan president and leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, has threatened the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, with his party voting against the Government's laws or even supporting the PP in a hypothetical motion of censure if he does not see "sufficient progress." "in the agreement between his party and the PSOE for the investiture. A possibility that the leader of the 'popular', Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has already ruled out.

"We could vote with the PP to tear down the budget or for a resolution on Israel, where our position is actually more aligned" with that of the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Puigdemont told 'Politico' this Tuesday night during the ceremony held by this medium to reveal its list of the '28 most influential personalities' in Europe in 2024, in which the Catalan appears in second place among the nine 'disruptors'.

As this media outlet reported to Efe this Wednesday, Puigdemont also told the president of the European People's Party (EPP) and leader of that group in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, that he could even reach an agreement with the PP to overthrow the government. of the socialist Pedro Sánchez in the middle of his mandate with a motion of censure.
(...)

[Mike88]

Will the Basque Country election be also on February 18th?

[Mike88]

Galicia election: The coalition between Sumar and Podemos falls: Podemos membership rejects a coalition with Sumar, as 62% voted against it.

[Mike88]

The goal of Junts continues the same: stretch the rope to see how far it can hold and force the PSOE to concede more and more and more.

Nothing changed basically.

[Mike88]

The surge of BNG is really "crushing" the PSOE. With one week to go, I wouldn't be surprised if PSOE ends up in single digits seats.

[Mike88]

"Everything for power, nothing against power". Indeed, Feijóo just humiliated himself with all these revelations, showing he's not that different from Sanchéz after all, however, not sure if the allegations are credible, are they?

I don't think he would resign in the scenario of a bad result in Galicia, but, what are the chances of "Ayuso's wing", if she even has it, of initiating a challenge to Feijóo's leadership?

[Mike88]

First turnout update:

12:00pm:

2024: 17.12% (-2.30%)
2020: 19.42%
2016: 15.01%

Results from here: https://resultados2024.xunta.es/es/avances/0/0/30

[Mike88]

Second turnout update:

17:00pm:

2024: 49.17% (+6.20%)
2020: 42.97%
2016: 42.49%

[Mike88]

TVE poll:

39-40 PP
25-26 BNG
  9-10 PSOE
    0-1 DO

45.9% PP
33.0% BNG
12.5% PSOE
  0.7% DO

[Mike88]

Other polls, not exit polls:

Sigma Dos:

38-40 PP
24-25 BNG
10-12 PSOE
    0-1 DO

Sondaxe:

39 PP
25 BNG
11 PSOE

[Mike88]

Yep, easy win for the PP. PSOE, well, what a disaster.

[Mike88]

Bildu could poll ahead of PNV, but it's unlikely they will lead the government. The problem is if the PNV-PSE coalition fails to win a majority. Sumar or Podemos could be called to form a majority, but not sure what's PNV stand on this.

[Mike88]

Turnout seems much higher than 2020, although turnout that year was a low watermark due to Covid.

[Mike88]

Turnout stood at 51.03% at 6pm.

[Mike88]

"Sondeos":

TVE/Gizaker/EiTB

26-28 PNV, 35.7%
26-28 Bildu, 32.9%
10-12 PSE, 14.3%
       7 PP, 8.4%
    1-2 Podemos, 3.6%
    0-2 Sumar, 2.6%
       0 Vox, 1.6%

El Mundo/Sigma Dos

27-29 Bildu, 33.4%
26-28 PNV, 34.2%
10-11 PSE, 13.7%
    7-8 PP, 8.6%
    1-3 Sumar, 3.6%
    0-2 Podemos, 3.0%
    0-1 Vox, 2.3%

[Mike88]

Why do both Sumar and Podemos exist as separate entities? I’m just not very well versed in this.

Classic disease of the Spanish Left; the lower they are in the polls, the more parties they divide themselves into.

Plus, there is the personal "feud", let's call it that way, between Iglesias and Díaz.

[Mike88]

Most voted party by municipality:

https://twitter.com/europapress/status/1782162537330389251

The results in Euskadi, municipality by municipality. This is the map of the most voted parties in each location with Bildu winning the majority

[Mike88]

There seems to be no case, as the Prosecutor is asking for the case to be closed.

Maybe this a "cleaver political move" by Sanchéz. To be fair, I don't like him at all, but I acknowledge that he's an "inteligent chess player" and this move, in a period where he's way down in the polls, could be a kind of "reset" in order for all these attacks to backfire on his opponents, as they hit on a personal level. We'll see on Monday.

[Mike88]

It could be that the personal strain is now becoming too much, Velasco, but one cannot put aside the "perfect" timing of all of this, if Sanchéz wants to rebound from the last complicated months: Catalonia elections in two weeks, which could give PSC a strong result; An Opposition that "throws" a lot of stones but that has glass ceilings also; And who knows, "restart" the falling PSOE EP election campaign.

[Mike88]

PP fearful of a "moderate" shift in the PSOE that could make them lose swing voters? It's a possibility, no doubt.

[Mike88]

In the end, all of this was both personal and strategic. Sanchéz "took the rug away" from his opposition, making them like "what did just happen?" and, like I wrote above, reset the political environment in his favour, so it seems. If this gives a boost for the PSC in Catalonia and starts "crushing" Puigdemont and his cult, not bad.

Also, António Costa gave a huge sigh of relief.

[Mike88]

Sure hope that Junts is being overpolled. They are still very close to PSC seat wise.

[Mike88]

Election day in Catalonia.

Turnout at 1pm:

2024: 26.91% (+4.14%)
2021: 22.77%
2017: 34.69%
2015: 35.10%
2012: 29.43%
2010: 24.79%
2006: 25.49%
2003: 26.27%
1999: 24.21%
1995: 25.96%

Official results page: https://resultats.eleccionsparlament.cat/ca/inici

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm:

2024: 45.79% (+0.18%)
2021: 45.61%
2017: 68.26%
2015: 63.12%
2012: 56.30%
2010: 48.39%
2006: 45.30%
2003: 51.17%
1999: 46.41%
1995: 51.59%