🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

High tensions in Lisbon: Traffic changes against the wishes of Mayor Moedas are creating a "political storm" between him and the opposition.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1527970094088871936

Mobility divides blocks in the Chamber. Moedas accused of victimization for protesting every measure passed on the left

If the relation between Mayor Moedas and his opposition was always bad, in the last few days it became worse. Last week, Lisbon City Council, which has a left majority, approved a Livre proposal to close Liberty Avenue on all Sundays and Holidays, and a reduction of maximum speed of 10km in every road in Lisbon city. The proposal was approved by PS, Livre and BE, and rejected by PSD/CDS with the abstention of CDU. Moedas is furious with this approval and says he will not implement this unless he has proof this will not complicate the mobility and lives of Lisbon inhabitants. Business owners are also furious by the approval and accuse the left of blocking Moedas, an accusation supported by the PSD. On their side, the left, PS+Livre, accuse Moedas of victimization and of trashing every leftwing proposal.

The media, and several pundits, reaction is also suggesting that the left, mainly the PS, is still upset for losing Lisbon last September and are persuing a strategy of "boycott" to Moedas. Some predict that Lisbon could be heading to a by-election at some point in the next few years.

[Mike88]

Observador newspaper, for some reason, made a vote compass for the PSD leadership ballot.

Here it is: https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-qual-o-candidato-a-lider-do-psd-mais-proximo-de-si/

My results were:

62% Luís Montenegro
49% Jorge Moreira da Silva

[Mike88]

2022 budget: Parliament enters in the final phase with the discussion of change proposals by parties.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1528725242419593216

Final global voting is scheduled for May 27th. State Budget 2022: Government welcomes ideas from Livre, PAN and PSD Madeira

Since Monday to this Thursday, Parliament is discussing changes in the draft budget approved by the government. All parties proposed changes, almost 1,500 of them, but the government is only letting pass some policies proposed by PAN, Livre and by the 3 MPs from PSD-Madeira. The Madeira MPs have "in the bag" around 40 proposals that go from tax cuts for some items in Madeira, to a deal to let more companies enter in the Madeira Free Trade Zone. PAN saw some of their proposals approved, like the public disclosure of state funding for all associations, while Livre saw the government approving their proposal for a VAT reduction from 23% to 6% of some menstrual hygiene products.

However, the rest of proposals, as expected, are being blocked by the PS majority and some with strong accusations between Government and Opposition. PAN wanted to approve a menstrual leave, like recently approved in Spain, but it was rejected, twice, with the votes of PS, PSD, CHEGA and IL. Rightwing parties accused PAN of "foolish feminism", while PAN accused them of being "sexists". Other tense situation was when the PS proposed a change to the budget during the debate, which was against the rules. The PSD was furious and accused the PS of "trickery", but the PS majority was enough to change the rules and the proposal passed. The proposal was to raise the debt ceiling for local governments. Another tense situation, that created accusations between PS, PSD and CHEGA, was when a CHEGA MP called the PS "hypocrites" which infuriated the PS caucus. The PS asked for a series of papers with the definition of hypocrite be printed and handed out to MPs. In response, the PSD accused the PS of "playing around" and that Parliament is a place for serious debate.

The final budget vote is schedule for Friday, 27 May.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the PSD leadership election:

Q: Who's the best candidate to lead the PSD?

PSD voters:

41% Luís Montenegro
22% Jorge Moreira da Silva
37% Undecided

All voters:

21% Luís Montenegro
21% Jorge Moreira da Silva
58% Undecided

Poll released on 19 and 24 May 2022. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.45%.

[Mike88]

Final vote of the 2022 budget: Budget passes with the sole votes of the PS, but with a last minute surprise.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1530160982995128321

Budget approved. 120 votes in favour, 5 abstentions and 105 against

The 2022 budget was put to a final vote early this afternoon. After a week of discussions and votes for changes in the budget, with few being approved and the majority were from PAN, Livre and PSD-Madeira, the final vote had the PS being the only party approving the budget, while PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP and BE rejected the final budget. PAN and Livre abstained, but it was the 3 MPs of PSD-Madeira that were the surprise. These 3 MPs abstained after the Madeira government was successful in including in the budget several policies like tax cuts, more support for the region's Free Trade Zone and more money for investments like the new Madeira Central Hospital. However, the PSD caucus leader was upset with the vote and will ask the PSD tribunal what kind of penalties could the 3 MPs suffer.

Party reactions to the budget showed a clear division PS vs the rest of parties left to right: PS said this budget was a budget of "dialogue" and "humility" as the opposition's voice was heard, but accused the opposition of talking of a country that not exists. The PSD accused the government of creating a budget that "enriches the State and impoverishes the Portuguese", adding that the government is making deaf ears to inflation and the consequences of the Ukrainian war. CHEGA trashed the budget as a plan to give subsidies to everyone and predicted that Costa will lead Portugal to bankruptcy, while IL said that the budget is bad for families and businesses. PCP labeled the budget as a "farce" and that the government didn't want a real dialogue with the opposition. On their part, BE accused Costa of having a budget that hurts workers and that big businesses with big profits will be scot-free with this budget. PAN said that the budget was improved by some of their policies, but was sorry that the PS was against a menstrual leave and other policies, while Livre said it will continue to help the PS in improving policies, but hopes that the PS continues willing to dialogue.

In the end, the final vote was as follow:

120 In favour (PS)
105 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP, BE)
    5 Abstention (PSD-Madeira, PAN, Livre)

The new budget is set to come into force on July 1st.

[Mike88]

If the PS loses its absolute majority for the next elections. Which parties would be the most likely to join a coalition with them or to support them from inside? PAN I Guess? What about the far left parties or the liberal party?

That's a tricky question because it's almost certain that Costa will not run for a 4th time, and in that event almost everything changes in terms of the PS position regarding the left parties. If it was now, Livre would be the PS preferred choice as the party is becoming more and more close to the PS. PAN could be an alternative, but their relationship with the PS is complicated because of some topics like bullfighting, and that would create problems between them. BE and PCP are completely "divorced" from the PS for reasons everybody knows, and, in the case of PCP, their pro-Russian position in the ongoing war made things even more toxic. IL will never align with the PS as it would be political suicide for them as they want to grow on the right and even, if possible, surpass the PSD. Making deals with the PS would end that "dream" and would probably kill them, I mean, their whole platform is that Portugal is living in a "Socialist Nightmare", so, yeah, it would be a disaster for them.

Now, by the next general election, either in 2024 or 2026, the most likely successor of Costa in the PS leadership, continues to be Pedro Nuno Santos who wants closer links between the PS and the leftwing (BE+PCP). Costa doesn't want Nuno Santos as leader, that's why many consider that he "flooded" the government with possible successors in order to test them, and of them Medina seems his favourite, but he's still very unpopular plus he has literally no charisma, and is still involved in the whole Russiagate thing, that the DA now wants to send to the Courts. If Medina somehow succeeds Costa, he would pursue Costa's strategy.

So, with Costa, the PS is having very good relations with Livre, and is tolerating PAN. But, in a post-Costa election, things become complicated as Nuno Santos wants a more leftwing PS, while the Costa moderate faction doesn't.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot today:

Around 44,500 PSD members are registered to vote in the ballot. Polls open at 2pm and close at 8pm. A live vote count tracker will be available in a the PSD website.

Results page: https://resultados.psd.pt/

The media characterizes the campaign as "dull" and "turn off", adding that the party is deeply apathetic and still in shock with the 2022 election results. Many pundits believe the next PSD leader will have a hard time in opposition, mainly because the two candidates on the race are not seen as "Prime Ministerial material", and also because Costa still dominates the political scene. Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas popularity could also haunt the next leadership within the party.

[Mike88]

This budget confirms my impression that Costa has been mediocre lately - I sure hope Nuno Santos becomes PS leader (maybe sooner rather than later if Costa leaves for the EU in 2024? that sounds like a win-win as a leftist although I'm not sure how the electorate would take it) and moves the party leftwards again. Medina is also a total dud and terrible for non-ideological reasons so... Of course after all of this I also hope that among the left-wing parties, one of them dies and the other rebounds - the PCP's behaviour has been amazingly bad.

Also congratulations in advance to Luís Montenegro, who in a few hours is going to become new PSD leader barring a catastrophic collapse and polling error. Of course, even if it may be dull, I am eagerly awaiting a map of the results .

Well, there's almost universal consensus that when Costa leaves the PS leadership, the party could go downhill. I mean, Costa to a vast section of the electorate is a safe bet, someone who will not rock the boat, will not make a lot of changes and just manages things calmly. But if he resigns in 2024 to go to the EU, he has denied such intentions but, who knows, the electorate response may not be positive. In 2004 when Durão Barroso resigned to become Commission President, the electorate was pissed and interpreted it as an escape, as in "things weren't going well, so he fled". Costa has a majority, Marcelo warned him to not "escape" in the middle of his term, so Costa is a bit trapped and any excuse will be a bad excuse, if he decides to go to the EU. In that even, Nuno Santos, which isn't also a very popular figure, plus has the toxic TAP airlines dossier is his hands, a "kind" gift from Costa , would probably suffer the electorate's fury for a snap election and could lose that election. Adding to that, his more left wing approach may be a turn off to voters, plus possible divisions within the PS. On the leftwing PAN and PCP are completely on the ropes, BE is totally bankrupt and, so far, only Livre is holding on and could make gains in the short term. We'll see.

Polls for the PSD ballot opened 2 hours ago.

Observador newspaper has a live news update: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/psd-escolhe-este-sabado-sucessor-de-rio/

SIC Notícias also has one: https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/especial-eleicoes-psd-montenegro-ou-moreira-da-silva-quem-vai-suceder-a-rio/

Moreira da Silva has already voted but didn't talk that much to the press. Montenegro hasn't voted yet. President Marcelo also commented on the PSD ballot, hoping that a strong opposition emerges from this ballot, as, according to the President, "a strong democracy needs a strong opposition".

Yes, Montenegro is the overwhelming favourite to win, but we'll have to wait. Like I said many times before, this is the PSD we're talking about. Expect the unexpected, and sometimes, weird.

[Mike88]

Some turnout updates in the PSD ballot:

There is no official numbers, but reporters in some polling stations say that turnout is in line with previous elections. In Porto, just before 6pm, around 50% of PSD members had cast a ballot, according to RTP.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed for the PSD leadership ballot. At 7pm, a RTP reporter on a polling station in Porto said that turnout had stalled and was now bellow previous elections. We'll have to wait to see if the overall turnout drops.

Counting is now beginning.

[Mike88]

First results: 9% counted

76.8% Luís Montenegro
23.2% Jorge Moreira da Silva

Observador newspaper says that turnout is low in some important districts.

[Mike88]

With 31% of polling stations counted, turnout is at 65% and Montenegro continues to have a wide lead:

72.1% Luís Montenegro
27.9% Jorge Moreira da Silva

[Mike88]

I've seen enough: Luís Montenegro wins the PSD leadership. By a landslide, but with a low turnout, around 62% so far.

[Mike88]

Montenegro, so far, leads in all districts. The closest is Beja, where Montenegro leads 54-46%, but with just 90 votes counted.

Moreira da Silva only leads in 28 municipalities, out of 308.

[Mike88]

Almost final results, 99.9% reported:

72.5% Luís Montenegro (19,225 votes)
27.5% Jorge Moreira da Silva (7,304)

  1.6% Blank/Invalid (435)

60.4% Turnout (26,964)

[Mike88]

Montenegro finally made it. It was the wrong choice imo and I don't think I will keep voting for PSD under him. But I wish him the best of luck rebuilding the Portuguese center-right, he will need it.

He was the least bad choice between two very weak choices, IMO. I continue with my prediction, he will be a "transition leader" until Moedas feels confident in running for the leadership. His only chance to reach the PM office is if Costa resigns in 2024, other than that, no chance at all, in my opinion.

[Mike88]

Candidates reactions:

Luís Montenegro celebrated his victory saying that tonight "Portugal won":

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1530666142620176396

Cm ao Minuto - "Today, Portugal won", says Montenegro in his victory speech

Newly elected PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, thanked his supporters and said that tonight it wasn't his campaign that won, rather Portugal as it will now have an "alternative to the Socialism that has led us astray". He thanked the PSD base for the overwhelming victory and that he now has a big responsibility. He went on to say that this day starts the beginning of the end of the PS hegemony in power and that he wants to be the voice of those who are left behind by the government. He thanked Jorge Moreira da Silva for his kind words and also thanked Rui Rio. During the Q&A with the press, Montenegro said that he wants to be the PSD candidate in the schedule 2026 general elections.

Moreira da Silva congratulated Montenegro for his "expressive victory":

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1530671076040122369

Jorge Moreira da Silva, who lost the PSD presidency to Luís Montenegro, did not reject a new candidacy for leadership in the future, but assured that he will contribute to the unity of the party.

In his concession speech, Moreira da Silva thanked PSD members for their support and congratulated Luís Montenegro for his strong victory, adding that his victory will be the victory of all the PSD. He thanked his volunteers for their tireless work adding that his campaign didn't have a lot resources. Moreira da Silva went on to say that he's ready to help Montenegro, but will not accept a post in his leadership. However, he didn't close the door to future possible bids for the leadership.

PM António Costa also called Luís Montenegro to congratulate him:

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1530673673195048968

@ppdpsd chose its new president today. I already congratulated Luis Montenegro on his victory.

[Mike88]

And now, maps:


Image link

[Mike88]

2 local by-elections this Sunday:

- Perre parish by-election, Viana do Castelo: Around 2,600 registered voters will elect a new local assembly after the previous one, elected last September, was unable to form an administration. There are 2 Independent movements on the ballots, plus CDS and CDU. The previous administration was an Independent one;

- Santa Maria parish by-election, Manteigas, Guarda: Around 1,300 voters are also electing a new local assembly after, just like Perre, the previous elected parish was unable to form an administration. There are 3 lists on the ballot: PS, PSD and an Independent movement. In the 2021 election, the Independent movement, Manteigas2030, defeated the PS;

Polls close at 7pm and results are expected shortly after.

[Mike88]

2 local by-elections this Sunday:

Perre parish by-election: Independent "Gostar de Perre" hold.

41.4% Gostar de Perre, 4 seats (nc)
31.1% CDS, 3 (-1)
21.9% Amar Perre, 2 (+2)
  4.7% CDU, 0 (-1)
  1.0% Blank/Invalid

52.6% Turnout (-11.3)

Santa Maria (Manteigas) parish by-election: Independent "Manteigas2030" hold.

44.0% Manteigas2030, 4 seats (nc)
27.4% PS, 3 (+1)
26.5% PSD, 2 (-1)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid

56.6% Turnout (-15.3)

[Mike88]

"Turmoil" in local government: Porto mayor, Rui Moreira, wants to leave the mayors association because of the decentralization process.

Porto is set to leave the mayors association after a final vote this evening.

For the first time ever, a city is set to leave the ANMP, National Association of Portuguese Municipalities. After threatening to leave a few weeks ago, Porto mayor Rui Moreira is going to propose a final vote, this evening, regarding Porto's departure from the association. In video on Facebook, Moreira accused the ANMP of being a "a PS drive belt" and that it doesn't serve the city's worries. In this vote, Moreira has the support of the PSD, which according to the media, is going to vote in favour.

Other PSD mayors from Trofa, Póvoa de Varzim and Coimbra are also considering leaving the ANMP. The main point of criticism is the ongoing decentralization plan in which local governments will be responsible for dossiers like education and health. But, mayors accuse the government of not giving funds to manage these dossiers, so, many are saying that with no money they will not accept the decentralization plan.

[Mike88]

A bit off topic, but Sábado magazine, has a hilarious report about "Luís Montenegro".

It seems that one of André Ventura's erotic novels (yes, the leader of CHEGA wrote, around 12 years ago, two erotic novels that has everything from gay relationships, drugs, submissive women, AIDS, etc) is called "Montenegro" and the main character is literally called... Luís Montenegro. In this novel, Montenegro is a drug addict, HIV positive, nymphomaniac that also wins La Vuelta.

How the hell can you mix winning La Vuelta with being a drug addicted nymphomaniac in a book? xD

[Mike88]

Truly the most normal man in the world.

If André Ventura didn't exist it would be necessary to invent him (for our amusement only).

He has to be one of the most "peculiar" far-right leader currently in Europe. Like we say here "Who doesn't know you, buy you!

Anyway, Porto city is now officially out of the Mayors association and there's an ongoing PS vs PSD war of words:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1531408174393212929

It's official: Porto leaves the ANMP. “This proposal is no longer mine and becomes the city’s”, says Rui Moreira

As expected, Porto city assembly voted to withdraw the city from the ANMP, the National Municipality Association, with the votes of Rui Moreira's movement, PSD and CHEGA. The rest of parties voted against and criticized Moreira. Several PS mayors in the North region are accusing Moreira of "giving up in being an active voice for the region", while Gaia's mayor, also from the PS, says that no one wins with this decision, adding, however, that Moreira has some points in his complaints. But, several PSD mayors across the country are supporting Moreira and of the cities considering also leaving the ANMP, basically all are from the PSD. Trofa, Pinhel, Coimbra, Póvoa de Varzim, and other are considering leaving the association, while Portalegre's mayor, also PSD, said that Moreira's decision is coherent as local governments are deeply upset and angry with the decentralization plan.

Also, another controversy that has been dominating headlines, is the election of a new Constitutional Court judge that has some, well, controversial views:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1531621316150927361

From limits on press freedom to anti-abortion positions. In 1984, he cited a medical investigation by the Nazis that raped women do not get pregnant. Controversies with the candidate for the Constitutional Court

The Portuguese Constitutional Court has 13 judges, 10 are elected by Parliament and the other 3 elected by the other 10 judges. This system of election is proving controversial as the current candidate to fill a vacant seat, Judge Almeida Costa, is being news for his controversial views on abortion and freedom of press. Judge Almeida Costa wrote an essay in the 80's in which he condemned abortion in case of rape or risk for the woman or the fetus, but it was he's deposition in Parliament, in the last few weeks, that created even more controversy. Judge Costa was asked about the violations of the secrecy of justice during investigations, and his answer raised eyebrows as he proposed punishments for press reporters and judicial workers that violated the rules, adding that there should be limits in the freedom of the press.

But, the controversy is deeper. There is criticisms coming from both major parties, but the new judge was proposed by the PSD/CDS appointed judges in the Court and his name was approved by the PS in a previous list for another post, so the two main parties are a bit "embarrassed" and with their hands tied. The election will be this afternoon.

[Mike88]

The Portuguese Constitutional Court has 13 judges, 10 are elected by Parliament and the other 3 elected by the other 10 judges. This system of election is proving controversial as the current candidate to fill a vacant seat, Judge Almeida Costa, is being news for his controversial views on abortion and freedom of press. Judge Almeida Costa wrote an essay in the 80's in which he condemned abortion in case of rape or risk for the woman or the fetus, but it was he's deposition in Parliament, in the last few weeks, that created even more controversy. Judge Costa was asked about the violations of the secrecy of justice during investigations, and his answer raised eyebrows as he proposed punishments for press reporters and judicial workers that violated the rules, adding that there should be limits in the freedom of the press.

But, the controversy is deeper. There is criticisms coming from both major parties, but the new judge was proposed by the PSD/CDS appointed judges in the Court and his name was approved by the PS in a previous list for another post, so the two main parties are a bit "embarrassed" and with their hands tied. The election will be this afternoon.

The Court has rejected Judge Almeida Costa election. In a statement, the Court says that "the process regarding the proposed name was concluded without cooptation", meaning that the election failed and Almeida Costa didn't get the 7 votes needed to be elected to the Court.

The seat remains vacant, and it's now uncertain if a new proposed candidate will be announced.

[Mike88]

Final and Certified results of the 28 May 2022 PSD leadership ballot:

72.48% Luís Montenegro (19,241 votes)
27.52% Jorge Moreira da Silva (7,306)

  1.62% Blank/Invalid (437)

60.46% Turnout (26,984)

As usual in PSD leadership ballots, there are already doubts about the results in some areas. In Castelo de Paiva, Aveiro, Montenegro got 100% of the votes, but Observador newspaper found out that at least 4 votes were "ghost votes", as someone cast them all at once. In the party's England section, there was also an issue about the counting of ballots.