NE-2: Change Research/Action Nebraska (Vargas internal) Vargas +3

[Hollywood]

Change Research has a D+3 National polling bias, and a D+5.6 Bias in NE-2 Congressional Race. Actually, all the D PAC polls under-estimated the Republican in a district that has been trending towards the right over the last 4 elections.  This particular poll over-estimates women by +4, and swings the demographics by 8 points.  Additionally, Change over-estimates Bachelor and Graduate Degree Voters by 10%, and this presents an additional swing of 20% in favor of a group more favorable to the Democrats.  Yet, Vargas can only manage a 42-39% lead in a poll where Republicans outnumber Democrats 47-43%, and abortion is tied with the economy as the number 1 issue for voters.   This poll was rigged for the Democrats, and Vargas still looks weak. How is it that a least 8% of Republicans are not sure?  https://314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NE-2-314-Action-Toplines-May-6-10-2022.pdf

In NE-2, Bacon is leading 52-41% after plugging in the correct demographics per ballotpedia, This makes sense give that Bacon won this race by 4.6 points in 2020 despite Trump losing that district by 6 points, and that the national polling has shifted 7 points away from Ds and 3 points in favor of Rs.  Democrats can't even win this race even if the Morning Consult/YouGov GCB numbers are correct.      https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022