absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

As I explained to you in the other thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.0

where did you get theses numbers? source?

I have separate posts with links for all of these polls earlier in this thread.

So if you don't believe me, by all means double check the numbers yourself.

[Ozymandias]

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

If you look closely, some of them are single-digit leads.

GeorgiaModerate, sorry if my earlier reply seemed a little brusque-- I thought you were replying to me, not RalstonSucks!

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

PPP: 73% (514 EV)-- Clinton +11 (52-41)

Keating: 68% (414 EV)-- Clinton +4 (44-40)

Magellan: 64% (322 EV)-- Clinton +6 (46-40)

Denver Post: 54% (300 EV)-- Clinton +17 (53-36)

YouGov: 28% (279 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)


There's a lot more variance in Clinton's polled EV leads in Colorado (though note that Trump's share is always between 36-41), but I think it's reasonable to assume that Clinton has at least a 6-pt lead among the 77% of the voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote).

[Ozymandias]

IOWA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Emerson: 37% (262 EV)-- Clinton +23 (57-34)

Selzer: 34% (272 EV)-- Clinton +22 (53-31)

Loras: 26% (131 EV)-- Clinton +28 (57-29)

Quinnipiac: 21% (166 EV)-- Clinton +34 (61-27)


So even though Democratic early vote share is down vs. 2012, and Clinton is behind in most Iowa polls, she actually appears to have at least a 20% lead among the 40% of voters who have already voted  (based on total 2012 vote).