2020 South Korean legislative election (April 15th)

[Lord Halifax]

Latest Realmeter poll now that Party for Future Integration has been formed by the merger of New Conservative Party and Onward for Future 4.0 with Liberty Party.

Democratic Party                     41.5
Party for Future Integration      31.6
Justice Party                             4.4
Bareunmirae                             3.7

On February 24 Bareunmirae merged with the Party for Democracy and Peace (People's Party dissidents that didn't approve of the merger with Bareun) and the New Alternatives (a splinter from the Party for Democracy and Peace) as the Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang). Uniting all of the centre-right (mostly Jeolla liberals and various moderate SoCons) who don't want to be in the Party for Future Integration.

[Lord Halifax]

For what its worth the Impact seems to have been rather small.

Realmeter (Mar 19):
President Approval
approval 47.9 (up 0.7 week-on-week but down overall)
disapproval  48.9 (down 0.2)

Democratic Party: 40.9% (-0.6)
United Future Party: 35.1% (+?)
People's Party: 3.9 %
Justice Party: 3.2%

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/19/c_138894985.htm

It's Ahn Cheol-soo's new People Party which split from Bareunmirae on February 23, the day before  Bareunmirae merged into the Party for People's Livelihoods.

The Korean name is the same as the 2016-18 People's Party, but they prefer People Party.

[Lord Halifax]

The full Realmeter poll

Democrats (Minjudang) 40.9% (0.6↓)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 35.1% (3.0↑)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.9% (nc)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 3.2% (1.1↓)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 2.5% (new)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 1.6% (0.5↓)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.5% (0.3↑)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.0% (1.4↓)
Others 1.7 (0.1↑)
Undecided 8.6% (2.3↓)

The Democrats and UFP's new satellite parties (established to allow the big parties to get a share of the 30 of 47 list seats that now function as top-up seats for parties running for constituency seats - as part of the partial/half-assed reform of the electoral system) are included in the two parties.

The Party for People's Livelihoods is the Bareun/People's Party merger, but since People's Party founder Anh Cheol-soo left it his new People Party seems to get most of the centrist/moderate vote.

The Minjung Party is a merger of two small de facto pro-North Korean ("left nationalist") parties descended from a party that was banned in 2014 for being pro-North Korean. It might still be prevented from running due to violating the National Security Act (a leftover from the dictatorship).

The Justice Party is Social Democratic and the biggest left wing party, but apart from Minding five minor ones are running (Greens, Labor, Women's Party, Basic Income Party and a youth party with a middle aged comedian/talkshow host as "advisor"), all presumably siphoning votes away from Justice. The Basic Income Party is allied with the Democrats.

There are two far right parties running, both "pro-Park". The Pro-Park New Party is a slightly more moderate right wing populist breakaway from Our Republican Party, which has merged with the even nuttier Christian Right and Korean ethnic supremacism (Ilminism, which SK's first president Syngman Rhee advocated) party to form the Liberty Republican Party.

[Lord Halifax]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

[Lord Halifax]

The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

This may be wishful thinking on my part given the MoE, but according to the polls they have lost half their support in a week. Pro-NK parties generally have difficulty keeping up support outside a few pockets (and families) where there is a legacy vote from the extremely brutal suppression of red guerillas by the Syngman Rhee regime during the Korean War.

[Lord Halifax]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

I think this poll asks for party support and not voting intention.  The same Realmeter poll asked for voting intentions which took into account the recent Democratic Party splinter Open Democrats.

Democratic Party      28.9%
Future Korea Party    28.0%
Open Democrats       11.6%
Justice Party              5.4%
People Party              4.9%

It seems that Open Democrats are taking a good chunk of the Democratic Party vote.

The internet based Dailian Daily poll has the PR vote with Future Korea Party in the lead

Future Korea Party    32.3%
Democratic Party      26.9%
Open Democrats       12.6%
Justice Party              7.4%
People Party              6.0%

It is clear that the Center-Left vote is still well ahead of the Center-Right vote but how well Open Democrats and Justice Party eating into the Democratic Party will determine if Future Korea Party can pull of coming in ahead of the Democratic Party.

I think voting intentions from Realmeter about the PR vote.
Open Democrats are only running on PR section and I think they are trying to get voters who think that they are real satellite party for the Democratic party.

The Open Democrats are trying to attack the Democrats from the left saying they've become too Conservative. After an energetic start with lots of reforms Moon's government has largely stalled the reform process after criticism from the business community (and some workers).

But the people behind the Open Democrats aren't that credible (as mentioned before).

[Lord Halifax]

It should be noted that given votes for constituency seats determines the distribution of 30 of the 47 PR seats you can't completely separate the two categories, which is why the first poll asks for "party support" and the second specifically about PR seats (in reality the 17 PR seats determined by parallel voting).

In general "party support" is what matters as a lot of the 30 PR seats linked to the general result (acting as top-up seats) will go to minor parties competing for constituency seats. So the designated "PR parties" are fishing in a small pool, only 17 seats are set aside for parallel voting.

According to the National Election Commission (cited in The Korea Herald), a total of 1,118 candidates have registered to run for the 253 electoral districts while 312 candidates will compete for the 17 proportional representation seats. The remaining 30 PR seats will go to candidates for constituency seats from underrepresented parties.

[Lord Halifax]

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

Are you sure they aren't running in any constituencies? When they were set up a big part of their pitch was a protest against UFP setting up a satellite party, but I'm not sure that means their leaders will refrain from running in constituency seats. The deadlines for running in constituency seats tend to be very late.

If they don't run for any constituency seats they won't have access to the 30 top-up seats, but only the 17 seats allocated via parallel voting, so it doesn't seem like a rational strategy to only go for PR seats.

[Lord Halifax]

The government has announced an aid package which should secure its support among workers and poor people.

It'll supply disaster relief funds to low-income households and send a one-time cash payment to 10 million households earning less than the median income. The median income of a four-member household is estimated at nearly 4.7 million won ($3,885). The amount will vary depending on the size of the household, a four-member household is eligible for up to 1 million won. The exact amounts and other details will be determined during the third emergency economic council session tomorrow.

Starting next month, the government will also reduce the cost of health insure and workers’ compensation insurance for low-income households and small-business owners, by up to 50% for three months, monthly payments for the national pension plan and employment insurance will be suspended for two months.

Job seekers in low-income households will receive monthly stipends of 500,000 won for three months to adults younger than 70 whose income falls below the 60th percentile.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare has also partnered with the municipalities to offer vouchers to children and senior citizens in the lowest income brackets for four months. A four-member household can receive up to 1.4 million worth of vouchers under this plan.

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from 30/3 with changes from their last poll. Not big changes, but more undecideds.

Left: 5.6% (+0.1)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.0% (+0.2)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.6% (-0.1)

Centre-left: 44.6% (-0.4)
Democrats (Minjudang) 44.6% (-0.4)

Centre-right: 35.1% (-0.4)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.3% (-0.3)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 1.8% (-0.3)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 30.0% (+0.2 )

Far Right: 3.4% (-0.2)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (nc)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.8% (-0.2)

Others 2.8% (+0.2)
Undecided 8.4% (+0.6)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Together Citizens' Party 29.8%
Future Korea Party 27.4%
Open Democratic Party 11.7%
Justice Party 5.9%
People Party 4.3% 
Pro-Park New Party 2.3%
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.2% ,
Liberty Republican Party 2.0%
Minjung Party 1.2%
Others 2.5%
Undecided 10.9%

Just 60% of the Democrats' supporters go to their satellite party (Together Citizens' Party), 22.3% go to the Open Democrats and 4.5% to Justice. 

56.1% of self-described Conservatives go to the Future Korea Party, 4.7% to the Pro-Park New Party and 3.6% to Liberty Republican Party.

46.9% of self-described Progressives go to the Together Citizens' Party,19.6% to the Open Democrats and 8.6% to the Justice Party.

[Lord Halifax]

The official 13 day campaigning period designated by the National Election Commission has started today .

The campaigns have been restricted due to the pandemic, and slogans and visual communication will be more important than usual. 

The Democrats are focusing on capitalizing on President Moon Jae-in's handling of the pandemic under the slogan "Workers against COVID-19" while the UFP is calling for the people to "Judge the Moon government" claiming the real crisis is economic and currently overshadowed by COVID-19.

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from April 2 with changes from their last poll. The two big parties are losing support to minor ones and there are more undecideds.  

The moderate conservative Korea Economic Party, which was originally founded to back former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon for president, but has recently been reestablished, has gotten ballot access and is included.

Left: 6.2% (+0.6)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.3% (+0.3)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.9% (+0.3)

Centre-left: 43.0% (-1.6)
Democrats (Minjudang) 43.0% (-1.6)

Centre-right: 36.4% (+1.2)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 4.3% (+1.0)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.5% (+0.7.)
Korea Economic Party (Hanguggyeongjedang) 1.3 (new)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 28.2% (-1.8 )

Far Right: 3.0% (-0.4)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.7% (+0.1)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.3% (-0.5)

Others 2.3% (-0.5)
Undecided 9.1% (+0.7)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Future Korea Party 25.1% (-2.3)
Together Citizens' Party 20.8% (-9.0)
Open Democratic Party 14.3% (+2.6)
Justice Party 8.2% (+2.3)
People Party 5.1% (+0.8 )
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.9% (+0.7)
Korea Economic Party 2.0 (new)
Pro-Park New Party 1.8% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party 1.7% (-0.3)
Minjung Party 1.2% (nc)

Others 3.2% (+0.7)
Undecided 13.5% (+2.6)

[Lord Halifax]

The undecided voters in the Realmeter poll are mainly from low status groups and a lot of them are typical non-voters (voters with no ideology etc.), but the right seems to have a slightly higher reserve (more retirees and more conservative leaning among the undecideds) than the left. There are notably fewer voters below 40 among the undecideds than 40+.

By ideological orientation (share of group)

None 28.8%
Conservative 11.8%
Progressive 9.0%

The groups with the highest share of undecideds:

60+ 12.2%
40s 10.2%

unemployed 19.5%
office worker 13.7%
housewife 13.1%
manual laborer 12.5%

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from today with changes from their last poll. Justice back above 5 percent.

Left: 6.8% (+0.6)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.4% (+0.1)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 5.4% (+0.5)

Centre-left: 43.2% (+0.2)
Democrats (Minjudang) 43.2% (+0.2)

Centre-right: 36.2% (-0.2)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.8% (-0.5)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.2% (-0.3)
Korea Economic Party (Hanguggyeongjedang) 1.4 (+0.1)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 28.8% (+0.6 )

Far Right: 3.0% (nc)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.7% (+0.1)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.3% (-0.5)

Others 2.8% (+0.5)
Undecided 9.0% (-0.1)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Future Korea Party 25.0% (-0.1)
Together Citizens' Party 21.7% (+0.9)
Open Democratic Party 14.4% (+0.1)
Justice Party 8.5% (+0.3)
People Party 4.7% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.8% (-0.1)
Liberty Republican Party 2.1% (+0.4)
Korea Economic Party 1.9 (-0.1)
Pro-Park New Party 1.6% (-0.2)
Minjung Party 1.6% (+0.4)

Others 3.2% (+0.7)
Undecided 12.4% (-1.1)