Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Lord Halifax]

Warren is out. Not that a 70 year old woman who would have a GOP replacement would be particularly appealing in the first place. We also forget that she constantly butted heads with the Obama administration. It’s not going to be her.

I think the 6 are all Senators/Governors: Amy/Kamala/Duckworth/Baldwin/CCM/Lujan Grisham

Lujan Grisham is never mentioned in any leaks/info from the Biden camp, I think that eliminates her. It's CCM if he wants a Hispanic. Whitmer is more likely.

He has made it clear he wants someone who agrees with him on healthcare and education, which rules out Baldwin.

I don't think you can rule out Bottoms and Demings, simply because he may end up viewing Harris as too problematic/too much of a liability (the vetting process is going to involved some polling) and he still decide he needs a black woman on the ticket.

[Lord Halifax]

538's discussion of the running mate choices: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity/.

TL;DR: they think it will be Harris.

I'm sure Bernie bros will be apoplectic reading that Harris is actually one of the most liberal senator.

"Liberal" is an utterly meaningless term that needs to be retired. It's measured as a combination of things that aren't related.

[Lord Halifax]

538's discussion of the running mate choices: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity/.

TL;DR: they think it will be Harris.

I'm sure Bernie bros will be apoplectic reading that Harris is actually one of the most liberal senator.

"Liberal" is an utterly meaningless term that needs to be retired. It's measured as a combination of things that aren't related.

Yeah, who cares about her senate votes when your gut says otherwise?

That has nothing to do with what I said.

[Lord Halifax]

Why can't people just accept that Kamala Harris sucks and move on.

[Lord Halifax]

How Will Biden Choose His Running Mate?

Goal 1: Help with electability, real or imagined
Helps: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Hurts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Goal 2: Balance the ticket demographically — particularly on race and ethnicity
Helps: Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Abrams, Cortez Masto

Hurts: Baldwin, Klobuchar, Warren, Whitmer … basically anyone who is white

Goal 3: Balance the ticket ideologically
Helps: Abrams, Harris, Warren

Hurts: Klobuchar

Goal 4: Help Democrats gain a Senate majority
Helps: Duckworth, Harris

Hurts: Baldwin, Warren

In any case, looking at the party-based criteria, here’s how things shake out for Abrams, Harris, Klobuchar and Warren, who The New York Times recently reported are senior Democratic Party officials’ leading choices for Biden’s running mate. (We’ve also included Duckworth, who’s a more obscure senator than Warren, but we wanted to note how favorably she looks compared with her in terms of these party-based metrics):

Harris: three positives, no negatives.
Abrams: two positives, no negatives.
Duckworth: two positives, no negatives.
Klobuchar: one positive, two negatives.
Warren: one positive, three negatives.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity

Hopefully Biden will end up picking someone other than the ones "senior Democratic officials" prefer. Abrams, Harris, Klobuchar and Warren are all bad choices. Abrams is unqualified and unimpressive, Warren and Harris both ran bad campaigns and provide perfect targets for Trump (and Warren is too old), and Klobuchar is too awkward, comes with a lot of bagage and has no appeal to PoC.

Jim Clyburn reportedly wants Keshia Lance Bottoms and Harry Reid wants CCM, hopefully one of the two grey eminences will get their way.

[Lord Halifax]

Harris is establishment but not the woman who has been in the U.S. Senate 10 years longer than her?

K.

establishment = those who control the party

it has nothing to do with seniority.

[Lord Halifax]

honestly, realistically, I think it's down to Harris or Klob. No one else IMO, if we're being real here, has a realistic shot

Why do you think that?

[Lord Halifax]

I disagree, Dems are connecting with Warren candidates, it's no accident that Barb Bollier and Gov Kelly whom are Warren candidates are winning in blue KS. We also need Pressler and Joe Kennedy in the Senate. Also, the Rs cant complain, Pence and Trump are in the Senior age group as Biden and Warren, it's a good pick.

Pressley, not Pressler.

[Lord Halifax]

I disagree, Dems are connecting with Warren candidates, it's no accident that Barb Bollier and Gov Kelly whom are Warren candidates are winning in blue KS. We also need Pressler and Joe Kennedy in the Senate. Also, the Rs cant complain, Pence and Trump are in the Senior age group as Biden and Warren, it's a good pick.

Pressley, not Pressler.

Maybe he meant Larry Pressler?

Nah, he has changed it to Pressly (without the -e, apparently her name has to be spelt wrong in some way).

[Lord Halifax]

I think Biden is realizing he needs to make significant overtures to the Bernie camp. Warren does make sense.

Wrong choice then. Most Berniecrats don't trust Warren at this point. Baldwin is the only prominent female Democrat they'd be comfortable with - and she's younger and would be less controversial.

[Lord Halifax]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

[Lord Halifax]

Would I be correct in assuming the top 5 are:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar
Abrams
Lance-Bottoms or Cortez-Masto?

With more serious consideration of:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar

I doubt Abrams is being considered anymore.

[Lord Halifax]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's hopefully not true. Picking Harris or Klobuchar would be a mistake.

[Lord Halifax]

A Latino is a must.
Biden already has black support and he can get Kamala and Obama to campaign for him. He lacked Latino support in the primary (relative to Hillary) and needs to be aware of this weak spot. If Biden loses, it will be because he doesn’t listen/takes-for-granted Latino voters in the same way Hillary ignored some of her base.

Does an English-speaking half-Italian Senator whose paternal grandfather happened to immigrate from Mexico solve that problem?

Probably as much as a half-Tamil whose father happened to immigrate from Jamaica will help with ADOS turnout.

For what it's worth there is a recent poll showing that putting Cortez Masto on the ticket would make Hispanics a lot more likely to vote for Biden.

[Lord Halifax]

I think Demings is the best pick. She’s a southern African-American, perfect for turnout in FL GA NC. Her moderate record and law enforcement background will help her in the suburbs and even with WWC. Riding the motorcycle can’t hurt as well, A LOT less elitist than Harris.

A law enforcement background is not exactly going to be an advantage with young voters (regardless of race), and that's the group Biden will have the most trouble turning out. Apart from a few years in Congress she doesn't have any obvious advantages over KLB.

Whoever gets picked will Biden's designated successor and the party's likely 2024 candidate. Demings will be 67 in 2024 and the Democrats need to stop running "senior citizens" for president, even Harris will be 60 on election day 2024. KLB will only be 54, which is a more reasonable age, even if I would prefer someone who would be in their late 40s.

[Lord Halifax]

The two prospective picks that could tip certain states over the line are KLB and Baldwin. KLB would boost turnout in metro Atlanta (which is GA's main metro area unlike Orlando), and possibly Georgia's black belt. This is the right combination for flipping Georgia.

That's an important point, and Demings won't have nearly the same effect. Florida is a big and diverse state with no dominant metro like Atlanta.

[Lord Halifax]

Biden isnt picking Val Demings since she isnt a Senator and Harris isnt that great of a pick, the same people like President Johnson who didnt want her as Prez are lobbying her to be picked as Veep.  Its gonna be Warren

Why do you keep saying it's destined to be Warren. What indication is there that it will be Warren.

In the heat of the BLM movement right now, I don't know how and old white guy that's running as a democrat just picks and an old white woman as his VEEP.

Not to mention he and Harris are more in line in policy, something that he has stated is very important to him. Also, She has been great in joint fundraising with him

OC is meant to be appreciated not understood.

OC?

Olowakandi (Cory Booker, Charles Booker etc). A forum institution.

[Lord Halifax]

New CNN ranking:

10. Whitmer (new)
9. Raimondo ( 8 )
8. Baldwin (new)
7. Duckworth (7)
6. Rice (6)
5. Warren (5)
4. Demings (3)
3. Lujan Grisham (4)
2. KLB (2)
1. Harris (1)

Out: Klobuchar, Abrams

It's interesting that he has KLB and MLG in his Top 3, and thinks KLB is closing in on Harris.

[Lord Halifax]

Jerk of the Week

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1274010762349084674

Well, he's right. Pick KLB if it has to be a black woman.

[Lord Halifax]

KLB seems.to be getting a nice raise in profile but no one thinks she's ready to be VP,  for some reason I think with her being Chair of the Platform, Biden might want her as Chief of Staff.

She is 2nd on Chris Cillizza's Top 10.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/18/politics/biden-vp-harris-demings-lance-bottoms-warren-vice-president/index.html

[Lord Halifax]

Seems like Chris Cilizza had discontinued his weekly "The Top 10 women Joe Biden might pick as vice president" series.

[Lord Halifax]

Though at this point I think Biden picks a woman of color so you're down to Harris, Rice, Duckworth, Demings & Grisham really. I'm sure you could still float the Abrams & Bass' of the world but I think they could possibly snag an Administration job.

What about KLB? She seems more likely than Grisham, Bass and Abrams at least.

[Lord Halifax]

Does anyone think Kyrsten Sinema might be dark horse? She's a swing state Senator and fairly charismatic.

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/biden-kamala-harris-2020-vp-keisha-lance-bottoms-elizabeth-warren/index.html

It's been a minute since this weekly article has come out, but I always find it interesting, it's changed somewhat and there's a major slip for Elizabeth Warren in this ranking system. But this is just an opinion piece so we always take it for a grain of salt.

Top 5
1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Keisha Lance Bottoms
3.) Susan Rice
4.) Tammy Duckworth
5.) Michelle Lujan Grisham

This is the sh*ttiest Veepstakes analysis I've seen to date. KLB at #2 because she got COVID? Really, Chris...? His equally irrational analysis of the primary debates always boiled my blood. Having him on staff really drags down CNN's credibility. If he's not a troll, then he's most certainly the worst pundit in the game.

That's not his reason for having KLB at #2 just an update of the situation, he has had her at #2 for a long time now based on her status within Biden's inner circle/"Bidenworld" (being his "go to" person on race, "spokesperson", early backer etc.). He doesn't move candidates up and down unless something has changed and apparently he doesn't think Rice and Duckworth have passed KLB.

[Lord Halifax]

Bernie bros are going to Bernie Bro.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1286462426142187525

Honestly, this makes me favor Harris and Duckworth even more.  I love Warren, but if the Bernie bros think she'd be an acceptable running mate that's a good sign she'd be a bad pick.

Lol. Imagine of Bernie won the primary and the Hillary-aligned groups put out a list of acceptable/unacceptable VP picks. Totally finksing absurd.

Nah, quite reasonable. There are two wings in the party, both should be represented on the ticket.