November 2018: New Caledonia independence referendum

[Lord Halifax]

Yeah, it looks like a majority wants to remain part of France. Which, as pointed out, they have good financial incentives to. This is far from an ideal situation obviously, but it's understandable.

The problem is the majority of the indigenous population doesn't want to, and they naturally feel it's rightfully "their country".

[Lord Halifax]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

[Lord Halifax]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

It was merely a prediction based on how post-colonial societies usually develop and the Kanaks natural desire to assert themselves and their culture, I think it would be more or less inevitable over time, but hopefully it would be a slow and gradual process with more Kanaks getting a higher education along the way to make up for the brain drain.

[Lord Halifax]

Oh, wow, this was close. I genuinely had no idea pro-independence sentiment was so strong, and it's frankly a little worrying, both because I do think New Caledonia is currently better off within France (that wasn't always the case but French policy has improved considerably since the Nouméa accords) but more importantly because a bitterly divided society isn't good for either side.

Oh well. I think it's only fair to have a final referendum in a couple years to settle the matter once and for all. In the meantime, I hope tensions don't continue escalating.

It's a little optimistic to assume a third referendum will settle the matter "once and for all", if the "Yes" side increase their vote there'll be a push for a fourth referendum.