GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

fulton finally moving?


edit: 100% dekalb.

[ApatheticAustrian]

may i remind everyone that ossoff is 1,6% ahead of clinton in dekalb and still 1,7% ahead in cobb...

meaning, if ossoff is also up 2% in fultin, that coould - theoretically - be enough, eh?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Cobb at 96% now and Ossoff at 50.4%

meaning, ossoff HAS improved 1.5 points compared to clinton.

trump/clinton difference was about 1 point, eh?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yes, but there's also the third party and non-votes from the Presidential race to account for. I haven't checked but it's likely the Republican field of 11 is getting more votes than Trump.

good point, correct, the strong third parties are mixing it up, which crushes my easy equation.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i got 10 open twitter feeds and no one is as nightmarish about ossoff than wasserman.

not saying that he is not correct, he is just kind of doing a rain dance all day, while more dry types state "too close to call".

[ApatheticAustrian]

Highlight of the evening: Sean Hannity endorsed Amy Kremer for #GA06. Amy Kremer currently has 239 votes out of 135,000 cast. #gapol
https://twitter.com/CodyHall09/status/854516286692483078

[ApatheticAustrian]

Wrong. harry enten is saying the result is in line with expectations, and Nate COhn is saying it's going to be around 48% for Ossof.

yeah, yeah yeah, doesn't change in any way how amazingly negative and full-scale nostradamus wasserman is. he is not even really informing us, how the specific precincts are playing their part in the bigger scale of things.

[ApatheticAustrian]

So, Ossoff ran 1.6% ahead of Clinton in DeKalb. Running 1.5% ahead of her in Cobb with 96% in. Would work out to 48% overall.
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/854517533306736641


The Ossoff party has turned off CNN and is now playing When Doves Cry. In other words, it's a runoff.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/854519157513216000

[ApatheticAustrian]

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nate cohn, again, being bullish on ossoff.


I don't know if I noticed when this happened, but Ossoff at 48.7 percent in our estimate--which is a little higher than it has been/was

That's getting in the range where it's worth checking in on the cumulative .8 percent going to non-Ossoff Democrats.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/854520087436546050

[ApatheticAustrian]

just mentioning, this is the third seat which moved like...+15-20 dem since the election.

this pattern isn't healthy for republicans.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What is left in Fulton?

84%, so like...everything.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i wanted to go to sleep when i got a glimpse of "fulton feeling" but this is getting absurd....

[ApatheticAustrian]

It looks like most of what's left in Fulton are areas Hillary went more or less 50/50 in, or around there.   I don't think Ossoff is "totally" out of this to win outright.    

as i was schooled - totally correct - the third parties are what could make the difference and johnson and co added up to about 4.2 points in georgia.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if i read this nate cohn comparison correctly, there seem to be lots of republican votes left.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It is very, very, very, very likely that Jon Ossoff faces a runoff against Karen Handel in #GA06. Just waiting on a few precincts.
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/854527292302905348

[ApatheticAustrian]

Significant to note that among the GOP tonight in GA06, the more closely aligned a candidate was with Trump, the worse said candidate did.
https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/854516664209215489

[ApatheticAustrian]

People REALLY overrate how many rural voters there are, period.

yeah, rural voters need to vote in spectacular high numbers and for one single candidate to make a difference.

that was "strange" about 2016 - would be hard to repeat.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Agreed, Tom and sorry for misunderstanding your point.

it is ofc a simple truth, that trump could never ever win against all cities/urban places - the rural margins just were unseen and made all takes center about rural suffering and accepting rural cultur and bla.

even while i have to say, IL is a rather bad ecample....after all there aren't many states who are more rural and TRENDED dem in 2016. 

[ApatheticAustrian]

Dinesh D'Souza has been making that analogy for years now, and it played a prominent role in Hillary's America.  It's nothing new at all.

mister d'souza was in jail and couldn't be elected as dogcatcher.