absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[ApatheticAustrian]

if FL is locked..... we can "survive" NC/MI defections and maybe even PA.

would laugh endless, if trump sweeps the midwest and loses all in the sunbelt.

[ApatheticAustrian]

#thosepeoplenevervoteRus

[ApatheticAustrian]

people are leaving the line in NV cause they are sick of waiting.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

(ignore the "Democratic caucuses" part)

was there a lot of republican nevada talk when you changed your avatar?

seems prophetic now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

would be intelligent if he were in the lead and wanted to help down-ticket reps...i think a lot of CD could switch this cycle.

[ApatheticAustrian]

cohn says, the missing white voters in 2012 are democrats/younger people....

i am sceptical.

[ApatheticAustrian]

he seems to be right for a loooong time and even EV-projection sceptics like sean trende give him the benefit of the doubt.

especially the urban clark democrats and the latinos....

does anyone think, trump will overperform mostly in latino states?

MI/OH/IA even PA, NH/maine seem much more likely.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ralston also said that the UNAFF this year are less white than ever before.

do you really think, this massive latino surge yesterday come only from card-carrying democrats?

[ApatheticAustrian]

DT doesn't need NV but it kills his NH/ME-2 route.

he is now doomed to win OH/IA/FL/NC/AZ/UT/GA aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand MI/PA.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am pretty nervous and doubtful myself but if the urban centers aren't voting against trump no one is.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the timetable has changed for sure.....dem have voted earlier last time.

the finish is stronger and some subgroups are down and Rs are up in some places.

will be a close win...no trump landslide, that is sure.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact, if the electorate is like 2012, this would mean a democratic win.

[ApatheticAustrian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

[ApatheticAustrian]

could be really bad for trump as long as there aren't groundbreaking numbers of white trumpocrats who have...for some reason...voted for obama in 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if "we" get the ..."taco belt", trump can sweep the middle west and still lose.

[ApatheticAustrian]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

long term latino states aren't latino in that sense anymore.

like someone explained......co/nm are not NV/TX/FL/AZ.

i think it's impossible to call NC/FL correctly....too much voting, too much unknown areas.

[ApatheticAustrian]

hm?

why are dems up about 170k votes now? did i miss something?

[ApatheticAustrian]

does that mean we are more or less in obama area? didn't he win EV by something like 170k?

pardon...i feel.....surprised....

[ApatheticAustrian]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah....i think it is going to be dem +60k.

unaff rule the world.

[ApatheticAustrian]

pub anti-EV sentiment combined with local politics: dem counties in FL vote today, pub counties mostly not.....

i am grateful.

[ApatheticAustrian]

didn't dems lost about 300k registered voters since 2012 on FL?

massive dixiecrat state. (and dems still outregistered pubs)

[ApatheticAustrian]

as i said...won't make any NC/FL projections....too volatile and too.many unknown factors.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the general turnout is high, big cities are favored.

brexit was low turnout in remain-areas as everyone knows.