The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

my biggest fear atm would be that the party-registration data is going to be useless at the end, cause there has been more crossover-potential than ever.

especially true in OH.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess SC whites are even more lopsided anti-dem, otherwise reps couldn't win that state like that.

[ApatheticAustrian]

not underwhelmung...more like deadly for republicans.

dems only lead by about 1k votes in 2012 in washoe early voting, but "cancelling" the second largest county, which has a rep edge, was enough to make all of nevada blue, since clark county is such a giant that all the rest can't compete.

killing all rep edge so early is the reason, the rep congressman from CD3 panicked.

[ApatheticAustrian]

washoe county 2012.....




comparison is deadly atm.

and schale is atm deconstructing bloomberg's FL poll:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/with_replies?lang=de

[ApatheticAustrian]

How is it at the moment? More favorable to D?

yeah, about doubled their advantage and without reps really winning a single day. (and i guess weekends are dem-friendly days anyway)

[ApatheticAustrian]

ofc there are...some states have changed laws and accessability of early voting.

[ApatheticAustrian]

not early voting in general....mail votes, and i guess this is about the dispositions of old people.

old iowans still hate the GOP i guess...and old inhabitants of FL are more conservative.

[ApatheticAustrian]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

[ApatheticAustrian]

at this point/in general/on november 7th/only in-person-voting?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Republicans seem to win Washoe County (NV) today by about 300 votes....guess we are going to need the weekend vote to learn which direction the wind is blowing.

But:

Also Clark County turnout slowed today....low turnout days advance Republicans.

[ApatheticAustrian]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

[ApatheticAustrian]

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

you are absolutely correct, i am just not sure if this is his personality as a professional democratic personality or a honest broker.

while...i am a natural doubter anyway. weekend will be great!

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is this normal for a Candidate that is supposedly 6-9% ahead nationally to be having a hard time in Nevada and Ohio.

she is NOT having a hard time in NV.

(OH is to the right of the nation and one of the most perfectly-tailored states for trump at all)

in fact....she is weak in the northeast compared to obama and stroooong in the south and in CA.

so yeah, this works out just fine....just not at the same pacing in every state.

[ApatheticAustrian]

EXCLUSIVE FL early vote stat: Of the 2.47m votes cast as of this am,
1/5 (514k) cast by voters who didn't vote in 2012

 D 37%
NPA 24%
 R 34%
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791835826153979904

i wonder where they found soooo many unaffiliated voters in FL...hahah ahah ahaha......

[ApatheticAustrian]

more FL fun....

EXCLUSIVE: Of the 514k EIP & VBM who've voted in FL but who skipped 2012 or registered subsequently:

67% white

8% black

17% Hispanic


In FL, 53% of registered "Active" voters are women, 45% are men.

Of those who have voted as of this am...

54% women

44% men

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791837496954978304

[ApatheticAustrian]

Of 998.2k Ds voted,

59.5% w

13.4% H

22.3% b

Of 1.01m Rs voted,

85.7% w

10.5% H

.7% b


https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791841359892213760


seems like a strong hispanic GOP vote right now...and an abysmal black vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Where is this?

pardon, still florida.

tons and tons of data....

[ApatheticAustrian]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems are going to win the coasts this time in unseen fashion.

[ApatheticAustrian]

NC are in a good position right now to overtake their 2012 numbers soon.

have halved their 2012 deficit the last 48 hours afaik.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What's all the rest supposed to be?

"unknown", a category mostly filled with rarely voting latinos.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I would not really overthink absentee and early voting to predict final results. There are still a significant amount of voters who vote on election day.

depends on state and year.

this year it will be record-breaking and settle some states for good.

[ApatheticAustrian]

relax.

hispanic turnout increased and florida started with EIPV just a few days ago.

if it is still the same next tuesday, you can worry.

[ApatheticAustrian]

after this weekend dems should be FAR AHEAD of their 2012 numbers in NC if the last 2 days are a symbol of anything.

[ApatheticAustrian]

from michael:

turnout up everywhere...besides midwest.