The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

I don't really understand what ideology has to do with early voting? Education/income - yes, but ideology?

some parts of the republican coalition think early voting is a bad idea and should be controlled/blocked.

[ApatheticAustrian]

mormon-latino-state is trump kryptonite.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact this means the turnout is the same....but 200000 more people now live in clark county.

so you can say ...the turnout atm didn't decrease...AND there are more people there voting...


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790001943699525632

[ApatheticAustrian]

Remember, these tweets were sent 2 hours before the polls closed.  So more are going to vote.

i meant didn't decrease anyway, just a typo.

as long as nevada-indies don't suddenly break haaaaaard for trump, this is great news.

[ApatheticAustrian]

drip drip drip

gop turnout down in swing country with republican reg. edge in NV


More democrats than republicans voted today in @washoecounty. Dems=4,809. Reps=3,078
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790006894307848192


9,429 people voted today in @washoecounty. That's just 18 more people than the first day of early voting in the 2012 General Election (9411)
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790005513371185156

[ApatheticAustrian]

first day is surely too early for assumptions but if dems are more energized to vote than reps, it's telling...and a total turnaround to the major narrative of this campaign.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't think anyone can decipher OH right now.

as far as i have read, much easier for "smaller" states or states with a bigger early-vote tradition......so VA/NC/FL/NV can be followed easier.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Speaking of Black turnout, what are the numbers looking like so far because I heard that it was still high anyway?

about the same in GA and a little bit down in NC but that comparison is unfair cause of the decrease of early polling stations.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Nevada:

22,000 people had voted in Clark County by 3 PM. Looks as if total will be bigger than 26,000 on second day in 2012.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790321227139125248


NC and FL:


Republican Lead in Two Early Voting States Will Be Tested
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/republican-lead-two-early-voting-states-will-be-tested-n671396

 At first glance, these numbers look promising for Republicans. However, Republicans in Florida and North Carolina did much better with mail in absentee ballot voting than in person voting. The 2016 early voting numbers reported here include only mail in absentee early votes in both states.

One way to benchmark the current 2016 early voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina is to break out the early vote from 2012 by early voting method. This break out allows for a comparison of mail in absentee voting versus in person voting in both states. In 2012, Republicans in Florida cast 3 percent more ballots than Democrats by absentee mail in voting. Results in Florida so far in 2016 show very similar results for mail in voting with Republican down 1 percent compared to Democrats from the 2012 numbers.

North Carolina, however, shows that Democrats are significantly outperforming their 2012 mail in absentee voting numbers. In 2012, Republicans held a 22 percent advantage over Democrats in mail absentee ballots cast. The Republican advantage currently is only 5 percent - a net drop of 17 percentage points from the final 2012 mail in voting numbers.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Democrats now lead in NV by about 12000 votes. (combined early-in-voting and the small rep-lead with absentees)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790350942805725185

[ApatheticAustrian]

well, how long does it usually take until the dems lead in florida?

[ApatheticAustrian]

i know, NV starts getting boring, but...


Third straight day of 30,000-plus voters turning out for early voting in Clark County. 32,500 had voted by 6 PM. 30K voted on Day 3 in '12.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790722043620630530?lang=de


how do you step up from titanium?

[ApatheticAustrian]

mcdonald regarding the dallas stuff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/790740761901867008

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess there is a big enough pool of lazy conservative voters who would vote if the state is in "danger" of becoming blue (yaya, atlas-red :-P)....but it is going to be much closer than usual anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's a big data point regarding motivation imho.

[ApatheticAustrian]

obviously millions and millions of cross-voter trump voters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't know why but afro-americans have been some of hillary's biggest fans early this cycle.....so i won't worry about that.

hispanics are a much harder lift usually.

[ApatheticAustrian]

which dat points would lead to that assumption? north carolina wouldn't be a good talking point.

otherwise...this year all "races" seem to surge.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah...not nearly enough stations.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

[ApatheticAustrian]

from ralston...another 30k out of clark county today, still going.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/791084516748189696

[ApatheticAustrian]

since ralston explains that hispanic unions beat the tacos out of republicans in NV, maybe latinos are the last hope for unionized america.

[ApatheticAustrian]

on the positive side for reps....atm they lead washoe county, Nv today with 5 more votes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems now leading in nevada with 24000 votes..

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

obama's overall advantage over romney before election day 2012 has been 34.000 votes....

[ApatheticAustrian]

Apparently @seanspicer said GOP up 8 in EV on I-4. Nope

VBM+EV -> Counties on I-4: Dems +30K (+7%)
Entire TPA/ORL DMA: Dems -15K (-1.5%)

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/791291220836356096?lang=de