The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

good day for republicans in washoe....won the day by 300 votes.


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793265069756813312?lang=de

[ApatheticAustrian]

some parts of dem coalition vote early-early anfd some late-early...as strange as it sounds.

but yeah....especially young voters ...aaaaaaaad...as schale stated several times,  there are big amounts of requested but unfilled absentee mails laying around.

[ApatheticAustrian]

40% drop...don't be ridicolous.

10-15% sounds more likely.

[ApatheticAustrian]

btw...regarding the graphics posted above...

30% of those EV hispanics are...first time voters.

make your own assumptions.

[ApatheticAustrian]

We have the most racist presidential candidate since wallance of 68 and yet they don't come out??? Boggles the mind.

i would love to hear more about the details.

- first: the black output 2012 was unbelievable and above all expectations.....not realistic to be repeated each time, especially without obama,

- second: which black americans are not voting or less inclined to vote? if i need to guess, i would say millenials and bernie-fans.

- third: is there really a numerical drop-off of black voters or just a massive surge of everybody else?

[ApatheticAustrian]

AA numbers are down across the board but as i have read in the twitter accounts of one of the math people (schale/ralston/macdonald/elecsmith/cohn/silver/enten) today, it is down especiaaaaaaally in the places with restricted EV laws.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this must be a threat....otherwise, i wish them good luck with their new republican overlords.

[ApatheticAustrian]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

funny thing:

dem turnout also has been extraordinarily weak on day 10 and 11 in 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing...Sad.

they must be ahead by 7% to have a chance.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

could be wrong but there have been tons of fear and doubt and panic in 2012 and obama is anything but not likable.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am pretty sure we see a hell of tightening but imho the ABC/WAPO model is too strict regarding who is going to vote. this will be a high-turnout election.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

How do we know this?

was reported yesterday afaik. at least atm.

will be a narrow thing anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

are those numbers valid? do all those midwestern states have full early voting?

otherwise i can't understand why the dems should surge in WI and MI. (even absentee-kingdom PA lol)

[ApatheticAustrian]

MI is in a better shape than usually thought and is less stereotypical midwest today.

OH is and stays ground-zero.

what makes me crazy is that we assume, MI union-voters want to double down on union-death.

[ApatheticAustrian]

crazry how lazy those dems are in IA/FL with returning those requested ballots.

[ApatheticAustrian]

fascinating how suddenly this pattern breaks down..... guess we should count on an equal margin.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

nothing at all, since a clear dem victory in 2012 didn't saved the dem seat.....but he wrote that reid's successor is a better pick than the 2012 woman.

[ApatheticAustrian]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what is the possible maximum for hispanic florida voting share....20%?

[ApatheticAustrian]

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

i don't really believe it is possible to make such generalized claims about racial identity but we are going to see it soon.

cohn and macdonald are btw doubting the claim about 28%....

cohn said, their own models have trump getting support from early voting republicans 80 - 10.

[ApatheticAustrian]

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

maybe in the end but it won't be transparent...many UNAFF are non-white but you wouldn't know.

@trumpista...one or 2 days ago, about 1/3 of the measured vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

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better than yesterday, no republican break even.

[ApatheticAustrian]

funny thing is, that a LITTLE BIT closer race than 2012 in NV could be more dangerous for the GOP.....otherwise there wouldn't be death flags everywhere.

need to check this out sometimes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.

he is but at that time washoe was much closer.

and i don't think day to day comparisons over 4 years make much sense, if your reach the same number. (same advantage over republicans, even with higher number of people overall)