German Elections & Politics

[ApatheticAustrian]

Everyday nonsense and return of ctitical Merkel voters, shocked by the possbility of a SPD chancellor.

as you may see, the little parties are weak, weak, weak.

[ApatheticAustrian]

word is, höcke now triest to get petry expulsed from the party.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Petry is no messias but she is capable, educated, speaks amazing english for german standards and is no woman who can easily be vilified.

her enemies are mostly grey, boring, old men or radicals.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

Especially Weidel and Meuthen. Totally grey, boring, uneducated and radical. Lmao, you're embarrassing yourself...

i said mostly.

weidel is part of the alliance trying to oust höcke, as you know, even if she is not part of the shrinking petry camp. she has the best chances right now cause she is laying low.

meuthen is kind of strange - after the stupid "war" against petry re: the splitting of the AfD faction in the BW parliament, he seems more like another kind of "petry-ish" politican.

well, he is better than gauland anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i can't wait to see the storch - höcke ticket.

[ApatheticAustrian]

weidel HATES höcke, would be splitting the anti-petry-coalition again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it is btw quite possible, that schulz hasn't lost even one voter - the close results just persuaded cdu-friendly afd-moderates, fdp voters and non-voters to "come home".

[ApatheticAustrian]

chief of the pro-höcke wing and the major anti-höcke voice....welö played.

[ApatheticAustrian]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

[ApatheticAustrian]

going out on a limb but....not in germany. not on the national level.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Wait, what? It can't be Gauland, so is Alice Weidel LGBT?

you answered it your self but...yeah.

and she obviously never pointed it out but this is germany for you.

we may not be seen as liberal in some ways than france but we actually don't really care about this topic anymore in the german world....no big rallies or stuff.

[ApatheticAustrian]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be fair, the afd is pushing a little but further to the right each yea right now, while the FN tries to do the opposite.

[ApatheticAustrian]

  That FDP number for NRW is pretty strong. Any reasons for its strength there?

fdp chief and resurrection artist Christian lindner's homebase is NRW and since the cdu is running a reaaallly lousy campaign (this poll company is an outlier showing a close race), fdp is getting quite some cdu-friendly votes too.

[ApatheticAustrian]

cdu and ssd don't like one another, the last cdu government tried to roll back the minority privileges.

big coalition is unlikely, traffic light or jamaica coalition, i guess.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just want to add that this was the result of a treaty between germany and denmark and germany does the same with the german minority in denmark.

[ApatheticAustrian]

new trend:

big, underpolled pro-cdu-vote.

i guess ashamed afd-voters who wouldn't talk about their cdu-vote in public.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is Kraft still regarded as a possible future SPD leader or did her window close? Losing the state elections surely would put an end to that speculation.

she secluded herself for years from the national spotlight and was seemingly not interested...and really meant it...so no, she shouldn't be seen as a schulz/gabriel successor anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

kraft hast rejected a coalition with the linkspartei anyway.

lindner has promised not to do an "ampel coalition" and the greens have vetoed the jamaica coalition in NRW....

meaning: either the cdu outperforms their polls massively and the FDP is winning too and they narrowly edging out a majority (only possible if your believe in the current under-polled trends of the last 2 state elections) or groko forever.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nrw is a structural problematic federal state, coal country and hard to reform.

[ApatheticAustrian]

This result would be quite impressive for CDU as my understanding is that Kraft is fairly popular. 

albig was also very popular last week....this is imho mostly the national trend which trumps local trends.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why did FDP perform so well?

it's lindner's own country and one with a high fdp-floor in "normal" years.

[ApatheticAustrian]

grand coalition was be horrible atm, imho.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Well, I told you so. There's no Schulz Hype outside the MSM and you all laughed. But as always, I was right ^^

i disagree.

more likely the schulz hype resulted into millions of conservative non-voters/afd-voters switching to the CDU again ouf of fear. ^^

[ApatheticAustrian]

Lol. The Dutch PM won reelection with something like 60% of voters saying they don't want him to win another term at the start of the campaign.

well, the dutch voters voted accordingly, in NRW the national trend prevailed. ^^