COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[JA]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

[JA]

Here’s an article from WP with a lot of stats about who is dying from the virus in the US.

This quote really stood out to me:

Data that shows at least 96 percent of those who died as of Wednesday had underlying conditions

Is it possible that by focusing on the age of the victims, we are actually missing what is really determining who gets seriously ill from the virus?  Based on this data, if we successfully shielded everyone with preexisting conditions from the virus (young and old), we would eliminate almost all fatalities.

60% of all Americans have at least one chronic condition and 40% have two or more. Even among the non-senior adult population (18-65) up to half (~129,000,000) have a chronic underlying condition.

America is a particularly unhealthy nation with a high percentage of its population part of a vulnerable category. The mortality rate in China for covid-19 patients with heart disease was 10.5%. 12.1% of American adults (~30,300,000) live with heart disease. If even half of this population (and that's being conservative) contracted the virus (~15,700,000) with a mortality rate of 10.5%, just think what could happen. That doesn't account for patients with diabetes who constitute 10.5% of the population (34,200,000) whose mortality rate is 7.3% (commonly occurs alongside cardiovascular disease) or the other chronic underlying health conditions that can make this particularly deadly.

America is the most unhealthy affluent country in the world; we have also proven that with Trump we are the least prepared affluent country in the world. This will not end well.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1243395633081274376

That article is actually quite terrifying.

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31

[...]

We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average.

[...]

In the hypothesis - not at all remote - that all citizens of Nembro have caught the virus (with many asymptomatic, therefore), 158 deaths would equate to a lethality rate of 1%. That is precisely the expected and measured lethality rate on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and - made proportionally by demographic structure - in South Korea. We have made exactly the same calculation for the municipalities of Cernusco sul Naviglio (Mi) and Pesaro using exactly the same methodology. In Cernusco the number of anomalous deaths is equal to 6.1 times those officially attributed to Covid-19, also in Pesaro 6.1 times. But even more staggering are the Bergamo figures, where the ratio reaches 10.4.


It is extremely reasonable to think that these excess deaths are largely elderly or frail people who died at home or in residential facilities, without being hospitalized and without being swabbed to verify that they have actually become infected with Covid-19. Given the decline seen in the last few days after the peak, flock immunity has likely been attained in Nembro. To a certain degree, Nembro represents what would happen in Italy if everyone were infected by CoronaVirus, Covid-19: 600,000 people would die.

[...]

Our fear is that not only the number of infected people have been largely underestimated due to the low number of swabs and tests carried out, and therefore the number of asymptomatics from the statistics have «disappeared», but that the case is also – through the data of the Municipalities - that of the dead.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/msmacb/status/1243410452220006400?s=19



I'm quite certain now that my fiancee and I had it. She developed all of those symptoms (not sure about loss of smell) and had practically sudden onset pneumonia (diagnosed by x-ray) while testing negative for influenza and strep. Her symptoms first emerged the night of the 28th and only slowly got worse until the 1st. By the 10th day she was in the hospital with her SP02 in the 76-93 range.

As for me, I only recall having the symptoms very mildly.