CNN interviews Ohio Democrats, and they LOVE TRUMP more than ever.

[JA]

Ohio is becoming more and more like Missouri. Also they are going to lose a bunch of electoral votes so obviously they won't matter as much in the future.

Like how your views about American politics don't matter because British Columbia has no electoral votes?

Ohio is becoming more and more like Missouri. Also they are going to lose a bunch of electoral votes so obviously they won't matter as much in the future.

tru

Gonna go out on a limb and say you've never been to Ohio or Missouri.

 

Thank you.

... That proves nothing, except that you guys almost certainly never visited Ohio. Neither have I, for the record, but at least I don't proclaim to know the future political orientation of a state based on one Presidential election and a couple of out-of-context maps.

Ohio wasn't some massive swing towards Trump; Clinton hemorrhaged former Obama supporters, due to a variety of reasons. Let's take a look at turnout in the state from the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections. Overall, 54,387 fewer people voted in 2016 than 2012.

5,590,934 - 5,536,547 = -54,387

Now, look at the change in raw numbers from Obama to Clinton and from Romney to Trump. There were 433,540 fewer people who voted for the Democrat in 2016 than 2012, but only 179,569 more that voted for the Republican.

2,827,709 - 2,394,169 = -433,540
2,661,437 - 2,841,006 = +179,569

So, where did voter turnout drop the most?

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): 645,262 - 608,879 = -36,383
Summit County (Akron): 268,358 - 260,346 = -8,012
Stark County (Canton): 181,746 - 176,165 = -5,581
Mahoning County (Youngstown): 121,584 - 115,971 = -5,613
Lucas County (Toledo): 210,621 - 198,830 = -11,791
Montgomery County (Dayton): 266,707 - 259,876 = -6,831
Hamilton County (Cincinnati): 418,894 - 409,109 = -9,785

What really happened in these counties?

Cuyahoga County
447,273 (Obama) - 398,276 (Clinton) = -48,997
190,660 (Romney) - 184,212 (Trump) = -6,448

Summit County
153,041 (Obama) - 134,256 (Clinton) = -18,785
111,001 (Romney) - 112,026 (Trump) = +1,025

Stark County
89,432 (Obama) - 68,146 (Clinton) = -21,286
88,581 (Romney) - 98,388 (Trump) = +9,807

Mahoning County
77,059 (Obama) - 57,381 (Clinton) = -19,678
42,641 (Romney) - 53,616 (Trump) = +10,975

Lucas County
136,616 (Obama) - 110,833 (Clinton) = -25,783
69,940 (Romney) - 75,698 (Romney) = +5,758

Montgomery County
137,139 (Obama) - 122,016 (Clinton) = -15,123
124,841 (Romney) - 123,909 (Trump) = -932

Hamilton County
219,927 (Obama) - 215,719 (Clinton) = -4,208
193,326 (Romney) - 173,665 (Trump) = -19,661

In counties where the Democrats lost the most voters, there wasn't a significant shift towards the Republicans. Voters simply went third party or, more often, stayed home.

It's also important to note that even though Trump won Ohio with a higher percentage of the vote than Bush in 2004 (51.31% for Trump, 50.81% for Bush), Trump didn't even reach Bush's raw vote totals (2,841,006 for Trump, 2,859,768 for Bush). And, this is not due to population decline in the state, since Ohio's population was 11,353,140 at the 2000 census and 11,613,423 in 2015.

Voter turnout in Ohio since 2000...

2000: 4,705,457 (2,186,190 = Gore | 2,351,209 = Bush)
2004: 5,627,908 (2,741,167 = Kerry | 2,859,768 = Bush)
2008: 5,721,831 (2,940,044 = Obama | 2,677,820 = McCain)
2012: 5,590,934 (2,827,709 = Obama | 2,661,437 = Romney)
2016: 5,536,547 (2,394,169 = Clinton | 2,841,006 = Trump)

Basically, Trump experienced a decent increase in votes over Romney, but Clinton experienced a dramatic decline over Obama - especially from his 2008 peak, and even from Kerry's results. There's nothing to indicate that (a) there were a significant number of Obama-Trump voters and (b) the next Democrat cannot recreate the results that Obama received simply by turning out the vote. Even if Trump held all of his voters, if the next Democrat could slightly increase Obama's 2012 numbers, the Democrat would win.

[JA]

Speaking as someone whose family is from Ohio, the only people who live in Ohio these days are the ones who don't have the good sense to move somewhere else. No shock that figure disproportionately includes Deplorables.

Tough talk from someone who lives in a state that gave us Joe McCarthy, Jeffrey Dahmer, Aldrich Ames, Ed Gein, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, the most drunk driving arrests of any state in the country, and has one of the highest unemployment rates in the midwest.

Wisconsin still does better than Ohio on human indicators like obesity, life expectancy and education level.

Better beer, better food, better public schools, better professional sports.

At least Ohio's not Right-to-Work and beat back its Act 10 equivalent.

Are Democrats in here honestly trashing Ohio for its quality of life indicators and wealth? Is there no conception of or appreciation for the affects systemic factors that affect states and local communities? Belittling Ohio for its alleged failures is no better than doing the same to poor people in general; it ignores larger causes and effects that are attributable to forces outside of their control. Ohio was a state heavily dependent upon heavy industry; when manufacturers were done exploiting the human and natural resources of the state, which once made it one of the best middle-class places in the world, they left it to rust and decay while the pharmaceutical industry helped to get its workers addicted to opioids to alleviate the pain caused by their physically demanding, shuddered careers.

However, with that said, all is not bad in Ohio. Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton are frequently mentioned for their strong economies and low cost of living. Cleveland is still a leader in the medical field, Columbus is making a name for itself as a popular education and financial center, Cincinnati is attracting numerous businesses, and even places like Youngstown have seen transformations of their urban centers. Ohio also has a pretty sizable and growing pool of college-educated millennials that businesses look for when expanding; so Ohio's future isn't bleak.