Weighted Presidential Election Trends by State (2000-2016)

[JA]

Drawing from the data provided by the Results section of Atlas, I created the weighted Presidential Election trends by US state from 2000-2016. Merely finding the mean of those results or just looking at the past election or two seemed, to me, unlikely to yield the sort of data I was seeking, so I decided to use weighted data to develop the results. The methodology I utilized was simple...

a=b(c)+d(e)+f(g)+h(i)+j(k)/c+e+g+i+k

Where...

a = Weighted trend from 2000-2016
b = 2000 trend (positive for Democratic, negative for Republican)
c = 1 (for year 2000)
d = 2004 trend (positive for Democratic, negative for Republican)
e = 2 (for year 2004)
f = 2008 trend (positive for Democratic, negative for Republican)
g = 3 (for year 2008)
h = 2012 trend (positive for Democratic, negative for Republican)
i = 4 (for year 2012)
j = 2016 trend (positive for Democratic, negative for Republican)
k = 5 (for year 2016)

I'm not a statistician or mathematician or anything like that, so perhaps there is an easier method for obtaining these results, but that worked well enough for me to get what I needed. Anyway, on to the results...

Positive (+) results signify a positive Democratic trend/negative Republican trend
Negative (-) results signify a negative Democratic trend/positive Republican trend

+6.7% | Utah¹
+5.1% | California
+2.9% | Alaska
+2.8% | Maryland
+2.8% | Virginia
+2.6% | District of Columbia
+2.6% | Texas
+2.1% | Colorado
+1.9% | Hawaii
+1.9% | Washington
+1.6% | Georgia
+1.5% | Arizona
+1.4% | North Carolina
+1.4% | Oregon
+1.1% | New Mexico
+1.0% | Vermont
+0.6% | Illinois
+0.5% | Massachusetts
+0.4% | Kansas
+0.4% | Nevada
+0.2% | New Jersey
+0.1% | Idaho
0.0% | Nebraska
-0.2% | Florida
-0.4% | South Carolina
-0.5% | New York
-0.7% | Connecticut
-1.0% | Delaware
-1.1% | New Hampshire
-1.8% | Pennsylvania
-1.9% | Minnesota
-1.9% | Wisconsin
-2.0% | Montana
-2.4% | Indiana
-2.7% | Alabama
-2.8% | Michigan
-2.8% | Ohio
-3.0% | Louisiana
-3.0% | Maine
-3.3% | Oklahoma
-3.5% | Rhode Island
-3.9% | Wyoming
-4.3% | Iowa
-4.5% | South Dakota
-4.6% | Kentucky
-4.8% | Missouri
-4.8% | Tennessee
-5.4% | North Dakota
-5.7% | Arkansas
-10.5% | West Virginia

1: Utah's trend numbers have been particularly disturbed by third party candidates - specifically, 2016 Independent candidate Evan McMullin.

The corresponding map looks rather interesting...

*Red = trending Democratic, Blue = trending Republican*
Electoral Votes: 271 (D), 260 (R), 7 (No Trend)

Does anyone have any interpretations of the results? The most obvious to me is that the Democratic Party is trending strongest in the West and "New South," along with a few other states in the Midwest and Northeast. It is the center of the country that has trended firmly towards the Republicans, along with Maine and Rhode Island in New England.

[JA]

1. Several Northeast states trending Republican as much or more than the core Obama->Trump Midwestern states is noteworthy and somewhat surprising.  The margins may be deceiving in parts of New England.

2. Texas being in the same league with VA and CO on this timescale is surprising.  Even with Bush being from there it barely moved relative to the national margin during the Obama years.  This is the counter to the small NE states in #1.  I would not underestimate how fast the GOP margin could evaporate there going forward.

3. Nevada sticks out for not moving left as much as its neighbors.  2008 is basically the entire Dem trend there.

4. Florida comes out looking a lot better for Democrats than I would expected, especially with 2000 as the 1st year.  

5.  It is interesting that the 2008 anomaly doesn't even register in Indiana.  It's still rather amazing that Obama won there.

All of that stood out to me as well - especially numbers 1 and 2. It appears that the sole reason Democrats are not discussing a general northern problem is the high margins in those states with which they have been fortunate enough to start this century. But, if this trend continues, states such as Maine, New Hampshire, and perhaps even Rhode Island may become problematic for the party. On the flip side, the party seems to be building a solid base in the Western part of the country and Texas is likely to become competitive within the next 2-4 election cycles. That would be seriously devastating for the GOP and would pressure them to either pivot to the Southwest or focus on taking more northern states. There are so many possibilities available going forward but, based on present trends, if they continue, it looks like the Democratic Party will be reorienting itself towards a base in the Mid-Atlantic and Southwest.

[JA]

13 states had a 3.0+ trend for the GOP. The GOP has won all but two of these states in a presidential election from 2000 onwards (Maine and Rhode Island being the exceptions).

Only 2 states had a 3.0+ trend for the Democrats. California and Utah. And Utah won't be won by a Democrat anytime soon

While that is true, those 13 states amount to 78 electoral votes; California alone accounts for 55 electoral votes and Utah makes 6, so that is 61 for Democrat 3.0+ states. However, if you change those numbers to 2.5+ states, you get 121 for Republicans and 128 for Democrats. Those numbers are likely to improve for Democrats as well, following the 2020 Census.

[JA]

I also calculated the 2000-2016 trends, but looks like I did it in a different way:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253993.0

Our results appear pretty similar, save for a few states. What was your methodology?

[JA]

^ True, the presidential race with the electoral college would give Democrats a slight edge. But the senate would be tougher since 27 states are trending GOP while 22 are trending Democrat.

I think we'll have a realigning election soon enough though. The Reagan alignment can't last forever and Trump is a very dysfunctional figure leading it.

As more people concentrate in fewer states, the undemocratic nature of the Senate will become increasingly problematic - especially since we are in an era of where the notion of America as a democracy is widespread.

Hopefully, there is a realignment coming soon. Our current party politics seems to be reaching a breaking point; how much longer can we continue down our current path without killing each other or our institutions completely erode their democracy and legitimacy? Besides, we have just about reached the end of a normal party system cycle (36 years since Reagan's inauguration).