Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

No way. Clinton wins by double Gore's margin, deliciously establishing that Trumpists will always be in the minority

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

He won't, which renders the whole idea of a blue firewall silly. Clinton never had an electoral college advantage this cycle and fivethirtyeight called this the entire cycle.

Yeah, this is what I'm trying to say. Trump didn't win anything, he just took advantage of the map.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

All of the states you mentioned except for Nevada trended D (might change a bit with the final count), Texas had the second biggest D trend of all states.

I'm talking about trend, not margin which are two distinct things. Even I was talking about margin, you'd still be wrong with regards to them all trending D because they only one that did that was Texas. North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida all trended Republican margin wise as well.

Yes, he doesn't know what he is talking about.  First of all, Clinton is likely to win the final PV by 1, not by 2.

Actually I do, I'm talking about trend, not margin. You can apologize for attempting to lambaste me when you didn't know what I was talking about. Second of all, according to the NYT, her margin is currently at 1.7%, and as you should know the general rule of thumb is to round up past 5.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Margin wise? Absolutely. Trend wise, however? It's actually the opposite if I'm doing the Cook PVI calculations correct. Let us look, shall we?

Texas -
Going into this cycle, Texas had a PVI of R+10. With Clinton at a 2% margin, this means Texas was 11% to the right of the nation which gives it a PVI of R+11. Now, under Cook's forumla, you add the 2012 PVI with the 2016 PVI, then divide by twp (Again, if I understand it correctly). This gives you 21/2, which is 10.5 and thus you round up to get R+11. So, a slight shift to the right in the Lone Star state.

Florida -
Florida's PVI going into this was R+2, and for this cycle was R+3. Add the two together, divide by two and you get Florida likewise nudging up to R+3.

Nevada -
Going into this election, Nevada held a PVI of D+2 while their PVI for this cycle was EVEN. Add the two together, and Nevada's PVI falls to D+1.

Colorado -
Going in, Colorado was D+1 and ended up being D+1. We don't even have to do the math on this one to realize their PVI remained the same.

North Carolina -
Going in, they were R+3 with the final result being R+6. Add them up, and then divided them and you get a new PVI of R+5.

You're missing the important step: the margin needs to be halved to get PVI. It is a representation of how many points above 50 the candidate would get, with the same margin in a 2 way race. So you are utterly wrong.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The Electoral College should be abolished.  The argument for keeping it is that without it the candidates would just focus on states like California, New York and Texas.  Well guess what, now we just have candidates focusing on states like New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida every single cycle.  Why are their votes more important than states where a large portion of the population lives?  Because they are more politically diverse?  Not so much, California and Texas are just as diverse.

This is why the CA/TX/NY argument falls flat. Even with 80% in all of the most 11 populous states, which is an absurd notion, you still get only 45%. The best thing about NPV is that a diverse coalition really will matter, because there is no overriding and cohesive social group in the US at large, as opposed to the WWC which decides all elections nowadays.