CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO  (Read 4684 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« on: September 25, 2016, 12:05:14 PM »


It seems Red Avatars noticed 12% of Hispanic LV answered 'Not Sure'(Undecided)
Meanwhile 11% of white LV answered 'Not sure'

Colorado 2012 exit Poll - White 78%  Hispanic 14%

so,
White 78% x 11%(undecided) = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x 12%(undecided) = 1.68%

Even consider Hillay has higher +% margins of Hispanics.
It looks TRUMP has bigger spaces to expand than hillary.

This Poll:
White - TRUMP 43% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2% |
Hispanic - Hillary 46% | TRUMP 20% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%

Oh my god, would you stop capitalizing "Trump" every time? It almost looks mocking, to be honest
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 02:08:43 PM »

Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.

If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15%  undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).

He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).

There's no such thing as game over when he's tied in Florida, especially with what we know about trying to poll Spanish speakers accurately.  If Clinton takes Florida, that's the election right there, regardless of what happens in CO or NV or ME or NC.


Absolutely right about Florida. If Clinton takes it, them even this map:

results in a Clinton win with 282. Trump would need to take MI, PA or VA to win, and all of those look pretty doubtful.
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