Who won white southerners in 1976? (user search)
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  Who won white southerners in 1976? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who won white southerners in 1976?  (Read 1080 times)
Arbitrage1980
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Posts: 770
« on: November 26, 2019, 04:22:40 PM »

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.
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Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2019, 10:04:29 PM »

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.

This.

The only thing I'd add to this is the increasing influence of the energy industry and the GOP.  As the National Democratic Party became seen as more anti-Big Oil, this pushed TX, LA, MS, and AL (all of which have offshore drilling) toward the Republican Party at all levels.

Correct. And in 2000, Gore's liberal positions on the environment cost him West Virginia, a state that went for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice. Winning that would have landed Gore in the White House.

TX and FL did not become re-aligned at the state level until the 90s under the governorships of the Bush brothers. GA did not elect a GOP governor until Sonny Perdue in 2002 and did not have 2 GOP senators until Johnny Isakson's election in 2004. In the border southern states, the Dems controlled the state legislatures consistently until about a decade ago. It was actually rural areas that converted to the GOP last. The notion that the South magically went from Dem to GOP due to the 1964 Civil Rights Act and white racism, is a liberal myth not supported by data and history.
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