Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
Posts: 770
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« on: August 20, 2019, 12:20:59 PM » |
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Trump won Maricopa by 3, so yes, Jeb would have won it. The last Democrat to win Maricopa was Truman 1948.
Orange, most likely yes, due to Jeb being stronger with Latinos and affluent white suburbanites.
San Diego is more liberal than Orange. Went blue with Obama 08, and it's now a double digit Dem county.
Harris is now solid blue. Along with Dallas, it was one of the first Southern counties to go red in presidential elections due to the influx of affluent migrants and the new economy of post-WWII America. Obama won it by small margins, but Hillary won it by more than 12. Jeb would have kept it closer but still would have lost it by a few points.
Miami-Dade, absolutely not. Has not gone GOP since HW Bush 1988 when he won FL by 22 points. W Bush lost it by 7 in 04 when he crushed it with Latinos in southern Florida, so that's probably the "upper limit" of GOP performance there.
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