Best campaign: Clinton 1992 Reagan 1980 or Obama 2008

[Arbitrage1980]

reagan 1980 he did way much better then expected.


Polling back then weren't as nearly as extensive and sophisticated as they are now, and I've never been able to find state pollings from 1980 so didn't know what the expectation of Reagan's electoral vote count was going into election day. He was leading by a few points before the only debate between him and Carter. Reagan won decisively, and his numbers surged, but the debate was just a week before the election, so the polling didn't fully capture that impact.

[Arbitrage1980]

In terms of organizational strength and effectiveness, Obama 2008 was the best run campaign, but Clinton 1992 had to overcome much steeper odds than Obama or Reagan.

In 1980 Carter was an extremely unpopular incumbent President in the midst of double digit unemployment and inflation, rising Soviet power, humiliation by Iran, and Ted Kennedy crippling him during the democratic primary. Likewise, 2008 was a horrible year for the incumbent party. Bush was at around 25% approval rating, Iraq War, worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, McCain was a terrible candidate, Palin was a joke. I mean, Obama's victory was guaranteed. It's worth noting that even then, Obama and McCain were virtually tied before the financial crisis, a testament to the strength of the GOP and the voters' concerns over Obama's inexperience.

Although HW Bush was not terribly popular in 1992, he was at 70% approval rating when Clinton announced his candidacy in October 1991. And the economy was in a mild recession but not a severe one. Also, while nearly any reasonable Republican would have beaten Carter in 1980 and a Democrat would have beaten McCain in 2008, I don't think the same can be said for 1992. It took a charismatic moderate Democrat of Clinton's skills to run successfully against an incumbent President and convince white suburban GOP voters to go for him. 1992 was a re-aligining election.