NH-SEN GOP primary 2022: Who would win?

[Lechasseur]

Sununu obviously, and then he'll win the GE against Hassan.

[Lechasseur]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke  à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Wyden's not losing, but could retire. In MD, Van Hollen is almost certainly not retiring after just one term and will be safe. The Democratic bench in VT has too many strong candidates for Scott to find an opening (if he wins reelection this year, Lt. Gov Zuckerman will be out of a job and probably winning to go for an open Senate seat).

There are uncertainties in the above and room for upsets if trends shift dramatically, but I feel reasonably confident that the fundamentals will ensure the target list is as above; enough to forecast the rest of the Democratic seats as 'safe inside the realm of Joshua Collins not getting the WA nomination'.

As much as Democrats want it to happen in 2022 if Biden is POTUS the GOP ain't going to lose NC or WI for that matter in a Republican favorable Midterm. Republicans still have the better bench in both States. I wouldn't be surprised depending how 2021 shapes out if Walker and Johnson swap Jobs with Walker running for Senate and Johnson for Governor. The only Republican-held Senate Seat I can see us losing in 2022 is Pat Toomey if he retires or runs for Governor.

Young in IN will be reelected. Rubio in FL will be reelected. Blunt if he retires will be filled with a Republican.

Yeah in 2022 PA I think is the only state the Democrats could realistically pick up if Biden is president.

But that being said, I think NH, AZ and maybe NV are the GOP's only realistic pick up opportunities as well.

This isn't going to be 2010, 2014 or 2018; the vast majority of both parties' senators are in states that are safe for their party.

My feeling is the days of massive blowouts for one party or the other in midterm Senate races are about over.