Describe a Dole 1996/Obama 2012 voter

[Lechasseur]

Sure! A college-educated voter who was alienated from the GOP during the Bush era and started voting Democrat. Exhibit A: Colorado.

Colorado was more about changing demographics than it was about GOP voters there becoming Democrats. That was probably especially a phenomenon you'd have seen on the East Coast and Upper Midwest.

But yeah I agree Dole 96/Obama 12 voters would have been socially liberal college educated Republicans who left the party in the 2000s.

[Lechasseur]

Fairfax County

Counties can flip because of people turning 18, dying, turning out, not turning out, moving in, moving out, etc. All of that is distinct from an individual voter flipping.

Yeah, I have to agree. Obviously some people flipped from having supported Dole in 96 to having supported Obama in 2012 (especially in the regions I mentionned), but I think they would have been a relatively small proportion of the population. I think Clinton 96/Romney 12 voters would have been a lot more common.

I think the story about areas that voted for Dole in 96 and Obama in 2012 is really more about the demographics having changed than anything.