UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

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What is WEP? The Women's Equality Party?

Yeah

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I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

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I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

Not sure about that. Their model is obviously En Marche, with Chuka (or Soubry?) playing the role of Macron. Modem had been around forever but not really gained momentum because of baggage and a leader without charisma and conviction. A TIG/LD arrangement could work out quite nicely in the UK, with the LD party assuming the role of Modem, and competing only in ancestrally LD seats. TIG runs the tables in the Southeast, and remain voting urban clusters of the Midlands (no idea about Scotland) and you have a formidable force. Obviously they'd need some sort of manifesto which adrdesses all the issues (education, infrastructure, housing, healthcare, etc. in a very third way way without being associated with third way. Perhaps Milliband could play the role of Valls and endorse them? Regardless, France shows the way forward.

Britain has already gone through a major third way era with Blair. While in France, Macron's politics could be branded as something new, in Britain, that'd be a lot harder. Blair is now viewed favorably by only 14% of Brits. Comparisons to him, which are inevitable, are likely to be toxic for TIG.

En Marche had strong and relatively charismatic leader, TIG doesn't have someone who could clearly fulfill this role. Chuka Umunna would probably do best there but he isn't on Macron's level of charisma. This helped Macron could run a strong campaign. Even if they do nominate a good leader, Corbyn has shown that his strength is campaigning and could probably outdo a competent TIG leader.

Also, Macron got quite lucky with his opponents. Scandal-ridden Fillon, a fractured Left and a deeply unpopular incumbent president which ensured that Macron would be the one to face Le Pen in the second round. While the government is unpopular, it certainly isn't at Hollande levels of unpopularity, and the British left isn't nearly as fractured as the French left. Not to mention that if the Conservatives were to have a Fillon style scandal, its unlikely that many of these voters would go to TIG because the vast majority of Conservative voters are pro-Brexit.

The main part of TIG's platform, a second referendum on Brexit, has been adopted by Labour too, so many people who may have switched to TIG to protest Labour's Brexit policy may move back. The rest of TIG's platform hasn't been fully formed yet, so I won't comment on that, but its clear that TIG's main appeal is its support for a second referendum, which has now also been co-opted by Labour.

As for TIG running the table in the South East, its unlikely. They will certainly get their best results there, but alot of the South East also voted leave. I assume you are mainly talking about London, which is a Labour stronghold. London is actually stronger for Labour now than it was during Blair's landslides. Many Remain strongholds outside of London are also university towns, full of young people, Corbyn's strongest demographic. My point being, even if TIG manages to get a significant percentage of voters, it is unlikely that that will translate into many seats, let alone sweeping places.

For your scenario to come true, everything would basically have to go perfectly for TIG, and even then, I'm skeptical for the reasons I laid out in this post and the one you were responding to.