What does a second Trump term look like?

[GAinDC]

Obviously we can't predict the future, but what do you think will happen if Trump gets another term?

[GAinDC]

Not much. If a trifecta, then just tax cuts, otherwise if Democrats win the House then nothing but another impeachment.

Foreign policy wise we might get ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza.

How would Trump broker a ceasefire in both wars?

[GAinDC]

Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.

In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.

Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.

Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.

On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.

Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).

This all seems plausible and it's terrifying

[GAinDC]

I'll start with a sliver of silver lining: I don't think he gets much done legislatively.  My current expectation is that the Democrats win back control of the House regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election so he at least has a check on that front.

But on the flipside, I think its borderline a foregone conclusion that the GOP will take the Senate.  In which case he gets to appoint more conservative judges that continue to issue rulings out of step with the majority of the country.  Alito and Thomas both retire and the current conservative majority on the Supreme Court is cemented even further.

Faced with a Democratic House, he governs mostly by executive order.  The federal bureaucracy becomes exponentially politicized following massive layoffs.

The 2026 midterms are a Blue Wave with Democrats growing their House majority and winning back the Senate.

MTG and her ilk propose repealing the 22nd Amendment which ultimately goes nowhere.  Trump pays lip service to running again but is privately vindicated that he was able to stage a comeback in 2024 and surprisingly makes no concerted effort to run again in '28

The 2028 Presidential Election is a 2008 redux with a progressive Democrat being elected.  Trump says he would've won in a landslide had he ran again.

So in sum, I'm naively optimistic the country survives but is undoubtedly worse off.

How does 2026 go for Dems? Is it like a 2018 or a 2010 in terms of seats gained?

[GAinDC]

I agree with pretty much all of the predictions so far.

As much of the current polling shows, a lot of Trump's support is based on his "image" and "branding" than anything else, and I think a second Trump term would be really detrimental to him and the GOP in that regard:

High chance we enter a recession or a period of sluggish growth in the next five years, which erodes Trump's advantage on the economy.

Trump also will likely be forced to deal with some sort of punishment if he is convicted. A President under house arrest or on probation is a very bad look. If Trump tries to fight it, he looks like he's above the law and focusing more on his legal troubles than governing. If he doesn't, it will be embarrassing for him, his supporters and the country to have a President locked up.

As we've seen on the campaign trail, he's not as sharp tongued as he used to be. He's made a lot of weird gaffes that will probably become more frequent and more public if he's president again. That probably leads to his handlers hiding him away more and propping him up only when necessary. That gives aging cult leader/dictator vibes that will not make people feel any better about his leadership.

Best thing for the GOP is to take the L in 2024 and come back stronger, without Trump. I know that means another Biden term will be tough for Dems, but I'm ok with that if it means Trump is gone for good.

[GAinDC]

Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.

In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.

Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.

Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.

On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.

Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).

Pretty much this, and he will also again try to finally repeal Obamacare, which may actually pass this time around.

Additionally, he would definitely get away with all the pending trials and indictments.

It may not pass because he’ll have narrow majorities in the house and senate at best.

Small majorities might be enough since the moderate wing is pretty much gone from capitol. And in a scenario with Trump winning, I doubt the GOP has anything less than 52 seats in the senate (which they would need with Collins and Murk voting against).

They’ll still be some institutions lists like Mitch McConnell, Bill Cassidy, Shelley Moore Capito, Todd Young in the senate who could block some of Trump’s more radical ideas.

And in the house you have the likes of Fitzpatrick, Kean, Bacon, Valadao.

That's not many and none of them will be in leadership, so not much of a firewall, assuming they even serve as a firewall

[GAinDC]

I can be sure of one thing:

Suddenly, all those college students will forget all about Palestine the day Trump is swown in