NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[GAinDC]

Ugh horrible numbers for Biden! NTY/Siena seems to be one of his worst pollsters, but even accounting for that, this is still very bad for Biden.

I still think that fundamentals and Biden running a good campaign can even up a lot of these states in the end, but it’s looking like a tall order.

Also important to remember that polls don’t win an election; voters do. In 2020, everyone thought Biden was inevitable and it ended up being more competitive than we realized. The same could happen this year but in the opposite direction.

[GAinDC]

I think Dems should start drawing up our own Project 2025 as a blueprint to push back on Trump should he win.

[GAinDC]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

The numbers may look a bit extreme, but I think there are enough polls to show that Biden has a problem in the sunbelt

Either the polls just aren’t getting a good sample of young and nonwhite voters who will come home to Biden in the end, or Trump is really gaining with these groups (if not through persuasion then by turnout)

[GAinDC]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

Hmmm, those favorability numbers make me wonder if they got samples that are too R.

Trump’s approval was always underwater as president and now it’s even? Trump has not done anything since 2020 that would endear him to a bunch of voters who never approved of him. It’s not like he’s Jimmy Carter and building houses for charity.

[GAinDC]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

To be fair, Trump also had good leads in GA early in the 2020 cycle and Warnock's 2022 win gives me some hope. Trump for sure is favored in GA as of today.

I was actually looking at the Georgia polls in 2020, and Trump was still getting big leads well into the Spring and early Summer. It wasn't until the late Summer and early Fall that the state started to look more competitive.

At the time, we chalked it up to Biden opening up a big lead, but we now know that wasn't the case. Perhaps in 2020 and this year as well, it's just certain D-leaning groups in the sunbelt not tuning in until late in the campaign.

[GAinDC]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

Lol these are polls not votes but blame the DNC of these are indeed the correct numbers they begged Biden to run again

I need your 303 faith, but no one wants to vote for Biden. He needs a miracle and all these little green haired, unemployed TikTokers need to fall in line fast, or else we are stuck with 4 years of absolute chaos, corruption, and stupidity.

If Biden wins, most Dems will blame is on the pink haired they/thems who threw a temper tantrum all year.

They'll also look incredibly stupid when Trump escalates the situation further in Gaza and imposes another Muslim ban.

I hope the Democratic Party will finally realize that these folks are not good faith partners, and Dems should never listen to them or trust them ever again. We need a coalition with people who understand and respect the realities of governing and how to compete in our two-party system.

[GAinDC]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

[GAinDC]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Good points. Biden is holding up very well with white voters in Georgia, which was actually how Dems were able to crack the state.

Assuming no collapse in Black support or turnout, Georgia should be much closer than this poll suggests.

[GAinDC]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

[GAinDC]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

It's different here because our Presidential elections are more personality driven than parliamentary elections

[GAinDC]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

Once again - I'm gonna need people to really start taking some breaths here. This is not the end all be all of polling, we have literally gotten close polls in AZ and GA just in the last few weeks, let alone Biden leads in WI, MI and PA. You'd think we were getting Trump +20 polls right now and it was the week before the election.

Atlas has always been like this. Sometimes I wish I had never discovered this forum because my friends who aren't as tuned in are absolutely not this fearful every election cycle. They follow the horse race headlines from afar, but it never seems to deter their support for their preferred party or candidate. I want that.