Just released: consumer sentiment falling again. Big miss. Should Biden be worried

[GAinDC]

Not sure if this has more weight than actual economic data, but regardless the current consumer sentiment is already baked in. People may think the economy is bad, but they’re spending like it’s good, and that’s the real benchmark.

And even with lower consumer sentiment, Biden is still competitive. Barring an economic crash, this election won’t be fought over the economy. It matters, but as 2022 showed (when inflation and economic uncertainty was even higher) other issues mattered just as much if not more.

[GAinDC]

All part of the Biden boom, Its working. Trust the process.

Inflation is transitionary

It was. In 2022 it was 8%. Now it’s hovering between 3 and 4%. That’s a huge decline, but go off Kween.

[GAinDC]

Biden’s economy polling is lower because Republicans won’t give him credit for anything and Dems have more complex views on American capitalism that make us hesitate to approve of any President’s economic management.

But like I said, inflation has cooled and unemployment is low, so voters may prioritize other issues when they go to the polls. If we were deep in a recession I’d feel differently, but we’re not. (Sorry Riverwalk, wherever you are)

And besides, even when the economy was more prescient back in 2022, it still wasn’t enough for MAGA candidates to win.

[GAinDC]

Not sure if this has more weight than actual economic data, but regardless the current consumer sentiment is already baked in. People may think the economy is bad, but they’re spending like it’s good, and that’s the real benchmark.

And even with lower consumer sentiment, Biden is still competitive. Barring an economic crash, this election won’t be fought over the economy. It matters, but as 2022 showed (when inflation and economic uncertainty was even higher) other issues mattered just as much if not more.

Perceptions about the economy are arguably more important than true economic conditions, which have also degraded in the past six months. Biden's JA on the economy is lower than his overall JA, as voters are judging him on how they think the economy is as a whole than their personal circumstances. Maybe Biden gets some credit for consumption being high or people feeling comfortable about their own circumstances, but clearly not very much given his economic approval is 35%.

I don't think the economy will be especially significant this election compared to how it typically is, but it's definitely hurting Biden, not helping him. Trump's ratings on the economy were always much better than his overall ratings and that massively buoyed his 2020 campaign. Do you not remember the disaster that was Trump's final year in office and how he almost won the election despite that? Positive feelings about Trump's handling of the economy is still his greatest asset and if Biden loses that will be an easy thing to point to as to why.

Trump also wasn’t selling bibles and sneakers back in 2020. I think the luster has worn off.

[GAinDC]

Biden’s economy polling is lower because Republicans won’t give him credit for anything and Dems have more complex views on American capitalism that make us hesitate to approve of any President’s economic management.

But like I said, inflation has cooled and unemployment is low, so voters may prioritize other issues when they go to the polls. If we were deep in a recession I’d feel differently, but we’re not. (Sorry Riverwalk, wherever you are)

And besides, even when the economy was more prescient back in 2022, it still wasn’t enough for MAGA candidates to win.

If gas prices fall in a close enough time frame to the election, and if interest rates finally get cut, that could make a difference for Biden, positively. Obviously they're big "ifs" though.

Biden will be fine. Even if the economy is total s**t in 6 months (it won’t be) there will still be enough voters who don’t think electing Trump is worth the risk.

Yall really don’t understand how much Jan 6 and MAGA have turned off the swing voters Trump has to win. 2022 was a warning but the GOP didn’t listen. Too bad!

[GAinDC]

All part of the Biden boom, Its working. Trust the process.

Inflation is transitionary

It was. In 2022 it was 8%. Now it’s hovering between 3 and 4%. That’s a huge decline, but go off Kween.

3-4% is still considerably higher than the historical norm and even if the actual rate of inflation has come down from its peak, things are still more expensive.  

Things are never going to go back to 2019 prices. Deflation is arguably worse for an economy than inflation.

Telling Americans 'get used to higher prices' doesn't strike me as a politically savvy thing to say.

I'm not running for president. I'm merely spitting facts, bro

The only way for prices to return to what they were 5 years ago is a very painful recession. People certainly wouldn’t want that.

Also, that’s insane. If a President is expected to literally reduce the cost of everything then of course people won’t think they’re doing a good job because that’s pretty much impossible in a growing economy.

[GAinDC]

All part of the Biden boom, Its working. Trust the process.

Inflation is transitionary

It was. In 2022 it was 8%. Now it’s hovering between 3 and 4%. That’s a huge decline, but go off Kween.

3-4% is still considerably higher than the historical norm and even if the actual rate of inflation has come down from its peak, things are still more expensive. 

Things are never going to go back to 2019 prices. Deflation is arguably worse for an economy than inflation.

Telling Americans 'get used to higher prices' doesn't strike me as a politically savvy thing to say.

I'm not running for president. I'm merely spitting facts, bro

The only way for prices to return to what they were 5 years ago is a very painful recession. People certainly wouldn’t want that.

Also, that’s insane. If a President is expected to literally reduce the cost of everything then of course people won’t think they’re doing a good job because that’s pretty much impossible in a growing economy.

Even if we had a severe recession (see GFC, Covid recession), the Fed will slash rates to 0 and flood the market with liquidity to avoid deflation. Prices are never returning to 2019 levels. I don't care if Trump wins or not. His supporters may be dumb enough to believe he can waive a magic wand and things will be 2019 again, but that's their own problem.

True. And if he does win, his supporters will magically think the cost of living has never been better! And the media will applaud Trump’s “economic miracle.”

[GAinDC]

I think Biden's had it. He's cooked.

Well then it’s settled!

[GAinDC]

I think Biden's had it. He's cooked.

Just saw this online:

Why Biden Can’t Outrun this Aussie’s 2024 Prediction

By Chris Cillizza

In perhaps the greatest blow to his reelection campaign yet, President Biden has been deemed “cooked” by noted Australian political guru, GoTfan.

In a post on popular campaign message board, Talk Elections, GoTFan said that they see no possibility of the President winning his rematch against former president Donald Trump, despite strong economic growth, a list of policy achievements, massive fundraising hauls, a solid primary performance and Mr. Trump’s litany of controversies.

The esteemed expert did not give any explanation for their bold prediction made six months out from Election Day, but GoTFan doesn’t need to because they’ve never been wrong.

After this devastating setback and additional votes of no confidence from other experts such as Redban and Snow Labrador, Biden will need a miracle to win this November.

It’s not too late to do the right thing and bow out gracefully, Mr. President

.

[GAinDC]

I think Biden's had it. He's cooked.

It was you screaming on election night 2020 that they should call Wisconsin for Trump already, right?

What did that NYT/Siena poll say today . . .

Oh yeah, that's it. Trump up in every swing state comfortably and within the margin of error in Wisconsin.

It's called being realistic.

I'm still reading the thread on election night 2020.  It gets better - you didn't just want Wiconsin called, but the entire election.

"CALL THE DAMN ELECTION ALREADY."

Forgive me if you have zero credibility.

For f**k's sake, if you want to act like a schoolyard bully,  take it somewhere else.

Sure, using your words is bullying.

GoTFan also called me a bully for bringing up election night 2020. How is bringing up a person’s own words bullying?