I really do think that Trump would win if he had the same ground game that he had in 2020 but that he will lose because he is too distracted on the criminal trials. Even if a conviction does not move any votes, not having 'Black Voices for Trump' backing him means the least likely Black voters that say they support him will not actually show up at the polls (and you could say likewise for other groups unless there is some micro-targeting game for conservative Hispanics that I have not seen any coverage of).
I've mentioned this before, but in addition to the distraction of his trials, there seems to be an element of laziness in his campaign, as if they feel "entitled" to win and have it already in the bag. Ironically, the closest recent equivalent in that sense is probably Hillary in 2016.
His campaign feels very lazy this time around. I’ve said on here before that, as much as it pains me to say, I’ve always admired Trump’s hustle on the campaign trail. But this year, I’m not seeing it.
It’s actually Biden/Harris who seem to be doing more rallies and campaign events right now.
I’m also seeing better message discipline from their campaign — It’s jobs, abortion, climate, democracy and character.
I’m not really sure what the Republicans’ main message is. Sometimes it’s inflation, but it’s not as effective as it was in ‘22/‘23. Sometimes it’s immigration, but they don’t seem to have a real plan about it other than reheated Trump policies.
Perhaps the most salient talking point is “there were no wars when Trump was President,” which I guess is good, but that’s also not really true because we were still at war in Afghanistan when Trump was President and they criticized Biden for pulling troops out. Meanwhile, the US has no boots on the ground in Ukraine and Israel and Republicans continue to support aid for those two countries’ wars, while Trump is asking Bibi to “finish the job,” which means escalation. So what exactly is the contrast compared to Biden?
