NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[GAinDC]

So if Republicans can’t run on the economy or immigration this year, what can they run on?

[GAinDC]

Where are all the blue avatars this evening??

[GAinDC]

Where are all the blue avatars this evening??

Seen a few make posts, but generally those that don't have Trump banners on their sigs...

Let alone on their pickup trucks, but that would be naming names.

Lol

Whenever we get a new Trump +10 lead from “America First Patriot Polling Firm” the blue avatars can’t wait to share it. But when Democrats actually WIN they are nowhere to be found.

[GAinDC]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

Now you know how I felt ahead of election night 2020 when everyone was insisting Fitzpatrick, Wagner, Hill, Van Taylor and Rodney Davis were all in serious trouble.

The difference is that in 2022, there was a mountain of GOP aligned polls that pointed falsely to a red wave. That also tipped the election models and fueled the media narrative.

In 2020, I recall some chatter on social media and leaks from 'unpublished polls' that showed many suburban Republicans in trouble, but that was about it.

These days, there truly is a massive, coordinated disinformation campaign that is meant to give Republicans momentum heading into election season, and the mainstream media is still buying it.

I mean, Dems just won this seat by as much as Biden did in 2020, and we're supposed to believe Trump will gain massive ground in New York State this year?? If that was going to happen, NY-03 would be the epicenter, and last night's election results don't show that at all.

[GAinDC]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

This is an impressive cope. You've got made up data and everything!

[GAinDC]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607

Hate to say it but that’s sort of how the average, not Atlas person sees this race.

They don’t know how much Biden won the district by in 2020 or that Suozzi outperformed polling. They just know that the last person who held this seat was a complete joke of a Republican, and yet the race to succeed him was competitive. So they see this win as underwhelming for Dems, which makes it easy to wrap into the “dems in disarray” narrative.

It’s unfair, but I think Biden should use these lowered expectations to his advantage.

[GAinDC]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.