absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Speed of Sound]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

[Speed of Sound]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

It is not good.

He has to outperform Mitt when it comes to white voters, if he doesn't he is toast.

That just can't be right.....it would be a complete blood bath in FL if those numbers hold. No way.....right?

[Speed of Sound]

Guys, there is a huge difference between people who REGISTER as independents and people who IDENTIFY to pollsters as independents.  In most of these states, Democrats win the former, but Republicans win the latter. Nate Cohn has tweeted about this quite a bit.

Yeah, I'm kind of surprised it took this long for someone to mention this. Frankly, right now the overlap between ID independents and actual UFAs may be like 30% or less.

[Speed of Sound]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

If (Iiiffffff) UFAs are doing what we think they are, Orange could be a real killing with those numbers.

[Speed of Sound]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

[Speed of Sound]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

Unless he wins ED whites by 60, 30% won't move the needle enough.

[Speed of Sound]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Game. Set. Match. Trump needs WI/PA. He cannot (he. cannot.) win with just NH and ME02. NV has blocked that path.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

you got it wrong
trump has it in the bags

Lets it play it this way:

2012 D 893
2016 D 887

2012 R 585
2016 R 644

Clinton is underperforming Obama in 2012 at this point in early voting by some 70,000 votes. FYI Obama lost NC.

(i'm trolling you mate)

[Speed of Sound]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

oh waow

[Speed of Sound]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

There's no indication at all that Clinton is in big trouble in Colorado.  Not sure where you heard that from.

In fact, I like the numbers in CO a good bit. They aren't "it's over" numbers like NV is showing, but they're very good. If I had to rank the "high level info states" (I'm missing some) in decreasing odds of Clinton winning, I'd go something like: NV>CO>FL>NC>IA>OH>AZ, with NC/IA as the barrier: everything left of it is increasingly lean Clinton, everything right is increasingly lean Trump.

[Speed of Sound]

Don't derail the thread guys, just ignore his comments that are not about the EV. Let's keep talking about updates on NV, FL, NC, and CO.

Youre right, Arch. Thanks. I'll delete my post and keep my eye on twitter.

[Speed of Sound]

CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.

CNN's "poll" also put Trump ahead in Clark County (!).

And, once again, self-ID indies and registered UFAs are really really different polls of voters.

[Speed of Sound]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

[Speed of Sound]

Since our Trumpers hate Ralston now, here's McDonald's view on NV this morning:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Speed of Sound]

Going out with a bang in NC!

@seangallitz

People at the front of the early voting line @NCState told me they have been here for 3.5 hours. Easily a thousand people behind them still

[Speed of Sound]

This is a really fascinating Politico piece about how much of the real benefit of concerts to the Clinton campaign involves ticket distribution:

"Ahead of President Barack Obama's appearance with James Taylor, for example, the local operatives handed out tickets across the street from an early voting site in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Voting turnout there jumped 80 percent compared to the previous day, making it the single largest voting day there so far — and bumping up county-wide turnout 16 percent by itself."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-concerts-strategy-230784

That's what a "GOTV machine" looks like.

[Speed of Sound]

Politico on FL early voting: Lean Clinton

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

[Speed of Sound]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

Very proud of the effort put in here in Travis County. I saw "I voted" stickers on students all week long. We broke records bigly this year in Austin!

[Speed of Sound]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

You're absolutely right, of course. But one of the issues is I think NC has a "if you're in line, you can vote" rule for today. If that's true, he's cannibalizing a bit to have people at a rally who could be in line instead. Just seems poorly planned, as usual.

[Speed of Sound]

Can we get a Sparks-style megathread for this guy? Thanks.

[Speed of Sound]

@miguelmarquez  4m4 minutes ago Pittsburgh, PA

NC Sec State says 3 million early votes cast. That's 44% of registered voters.

[Speed of Sound]

Finishing FL strong, too. Close the door!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Speed of Sound]

@steveschale  9m9 minutes ago Orlando, FL

Obama effect...

Don't look now (ok do), but Dems have almost caught the GOP in #DUUUVAL.

[Speed of Sound]

Obama lost Duval by 4, but I can't find 2012 EV numbers for Duval for comparison. Does anyone have them?