absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

FL is really moving hard at the end. That Obama-Clinton Machine.

Awesome!

Seconded! I honestly didn't expect Clinton to win Duval County, but now I'm not so sure. It's at least 50/50 at this point. Don't forget Obama just barely eked out a win here during his 2008 landslide.

Nope, McCain carried Duval County 51-49.

Indeed. This would be win #1 in a while.

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!!!!!


@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA

Looks like Broward will set a record today for in-person.

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Still can't believe that Rick Scott allowed this extra Sunday of early voting to happen. It might bury Republicans in Duval.

Didn't the courts force it on him?

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As long as FLAWLESS BAEAUTIFUL MARCO<3<3 wins Florida, I don't care!

Gotta love his odds; Latinx split-tickets should be through the roof.

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Broward's gonna railroad this thing.

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Broward won't be the only star. It's records everywhere as Souls to the Polls demands that the black voice be heard.


@steveschale  13m13 minutes ago Florida, USA

Hillsborough & Duval will also set records today. Turnout is very strong

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Judge has ordered a heavy polling booth stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

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Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

I believe only one location has extended hours.

Corrected, thanks.

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Schale keeps trying to bite his tongue on outcome. Doesn't think Dems will take Duval.

@steveschale  2m2 minutes ago Florida, USA

My win models for HRC generally have Duval at Trump +10% as a baseline. I think she beats that based on EV.

@steveschale  5m5 minutes ago Florida, USA

Dems end up +4200 in Duval. No chance they win county, but also no chance Trump gets Bush04 margins he needs to balance Dade either

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once again:

if trump wins....

don't blame blacks, don't blame latinos and i may be wrong but it won't be women....

most likely still white men college-educated or not and idealistic third-partiers.

Yep, that'll be your culprit right there.

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Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

I'll translate:

"Those -----'s and damn lazy ---------'s are allowed to vote. I don't believe they should be allowed to. Whites will vote on ED. To hell with every obvious attempt to suppress voting. To hell with the thought that voting is our most inalienable right and duty. I don't want to make the pillar of our government and identity stronger because I hate non-whites for voting D"

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https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/795348672460505088

The GOP belief in democracy in a nut shell. They despise the voting process.

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Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

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Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

Smith sounds pretty confident that Clinton is winning Florida at the moment.

The more you listen, it's hard to find people not seeing that, really.

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@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

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Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

I wanna hear the full breakdown first. Let's see if Schale gives us a last update in the morning. Then we'll know a lot more.

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The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

That was always coming. Still good to hear.

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The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

Oh, thank God.

For the last time, this would've had a negligible effect anyway. But at least all the bedwetting will stop now.

And, as I noted often:

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As I mentioned in the early vote thread, anyone who thinks that the Democratic bigwigs and the union bigwigs in PA won't strike a deal to protect the election outcome knows nothing about PA politics.

Like the Philly union thugs will let this give the election to Trump lmao

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Seriously. I know PA quite well. Union leaders and Dems aint gonna let that happen. If she loses PA, unions wont be the problem.

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Do we have the percent that Clinton won EV in FL by yet?

Ignoring all of your #analysis, no we don't know anything about candidate %s since they won't release any vote information until the polls close.

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Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

There's Steve's magic number, right on time.

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Why is it so shocking and horrifying to you guys that Republicans hate liberal democracy, and only favor gerrymandered, safe-space democracies, in which the worldview of white America is insulated from an increasingly diversifying country?  Haven't we known that for a while now?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^