absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

[Speed of Sound]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

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Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

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Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern

Woah if true.

No kidding. If Dems win Duval even after the great Dixie purge....wow.

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Can someone summarize why everyone is so confident about the Florida early vote when it looks basically tied to me.

It's on the assumption that UFAs, since they experienced a huge surge in non-white and younger voters, will swing towards HRC. Two-party tie=HRC win in that scenario. Also, I wouldn't call it "so confident" (or, if some people are, they shouldn't be), but some of the excitement comes from the fact that it looked early like it was going the other way. To have it leaning HRC instead is a great turn around, and maybe a sign of the GOTV's strength in general.

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41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

Yeah, I think that's right. We're already well over the 2012 #s.

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Since we've had this talk a lot, here's Nate Cohn on the Upshot NC projection (I hate helping you, LBP. ):

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Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

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Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

Maybe, but that certainly won't save us from Governor Bathroom and Senator Useless GOP Hack.

I admit, I really haven't watched Gov/Sen races this year like I used to. You may well be right on both counts there.

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Ralston has made his official prediction:

HRC 46
Trump 40
Johnson 7
NOTA 7


http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/05/ralston-how-deep-does-blue-wave-go/93349220/

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i think it's impossible to call NC/FL correctly....too much voting, too much unknown areas.

I agree. Glad that insiders all seem to like what they see for HRC in FL, but so many things can't be modeled there...

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Schale's daily post is up.

Excerpt:

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http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

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It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

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It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

Wasn't that the number out of FL? Or did I get that wrong?

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As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

Wow.......!

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/05/the-early-vote-scenario-is-by-no-means-uniformly-good-for-hillary-clinton/

Nice read

GA and NC polls performing better than 2012 yet black electorate dropping steeply may indicate that it's not so much black votes that matter but educated whites' votes.

Yeah, educated counties, especially ones that have been lean-R counties before, will be worth watching very closely.

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Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

"something"

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Yes, but that hardly means she's screwed. Intra-party switches are mostly voters that were already voting another way anyway and IND going up looks to be good given the demos of registered INDs.

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Meanwhile, Democrats now lead Duval by over 800 votes. Should crack 1,000 today.

Going to be very hard for Trump to match Romney in Duval.

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The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

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Schale crunches the numbers on Saturday's FL voters:

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Steve trying to resist making a call...

@steveschale  31s32 seconds ago Florida, USA

Been wrong before, but it's hard to see a path for Trump if it's more diverse than 12 with t/o levels near 08.  But that's where we're going

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Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV? 

I'm not sure why it is that Steve doesn't seem to think so/be worried about it. One thing that helps is that more than 2/3rds of all votes will already be in by ED.

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Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

FL is really moving hard at the end. That Obama-Clinton Machine.

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@Saahil_Desai

4,000 people are waiting in line to vote in Cincinnati right now. This is how long the line is.