The absentee/early vote thread

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What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?

In the polls of early voters...

PPP polled NC twice with the early voter question. Obama led by 17 about 10 days before the election and by 9 in their final NC poll. The party ID difference was about 17-18 points in favor of Democrats through the 2012 early voting period

Interesting. Those are encouraging numbers, then. Thanks for the info!

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Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

What timing! Schale just posted his pre-weekend thoughts on FL.

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/29/florida-day-10-and-it-is-fsuclemson.html

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Badger drops in and absolutely lays it down. Nice.

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This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

No updates on the site yet. I've been tracking sporadically throughout the day.

Yeah, it'll probably be 8 or 9 when Schale, Ralston, etc. come in with their info for the night.

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Those numbers are from the mid morning, just as an FYI.

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@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

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Today's voting did not change the Upshot NC tracker projection. Clinton's projected final vote share went up by .1%, still ~49-43.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792545190976323584

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So today's news wasn't that great?

I'd say it's more that the end of last week wasn't that great and we haven't really heard anything for today yet. Upshot's NC not moving sounds fine to me; it should have already been predicting what a weekend day would look like, so if the projection didn't move, we got the votes we expected to. They still see her winning NC by 6% after today's tallies. We're still waiting to hear out of FL, NV, etc., so far as I can tell, anyway.

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In-person registrations for this week in NC, per Michael McDonald. Looks young and like a lot is from recently hard swinging Wake County.

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The new numbers for GA are in, though I haven't followed GA close enough to know if they're significant in any way.

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I suspect we won't have a clear picture of EV numbers until we see the results from the "Souls to the Polls" as well as a surge of weekend numbers from states rolling from Texas to Ohio...

Meanwhile, Atlas will roll on and debate and discuss every infinitesimal movement in the numbers, but we will likely have a much better picture come EOB Monday....

Just sayin'

fair enough - this is the first election I've really dug through early vote numbers so I don't really know what to look for.

Same. Plus, the forum's been a graveyard today, so what else is there to do then ramble on with whatever we get? We're nerds without numbers today.

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Good reminder from Nate Cohn about early voting:

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do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

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Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

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https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

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https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the clarification. We'll see what Schale has to say if/when he updates today. Thanks!

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This is why you build a ground game:

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nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

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Which should look similar in the other big early vote states. It's hilarious how everyone touted the ground game as a huge decider when the race was clearly out of hand and didn't need it, and now that they think the race is close (it actually isn't), they have no confidence in that exact same thing.

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the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.


btw.....RIGGING AND BUSSING IN NV!!!!!!

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https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792776594657939457?lang=de

My trusted sources say that they are all "that sort of people" (you know who I mean, America) from out of state getting bussed in by the millions to turn NV for TRUMP. #MakeAmericaWhiteAgain

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Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

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Some explanation for why Upshot showed T+4 in FL:

"@natecohn
This is a big difference between our FL polls: we found no split.

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"

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Ralston has updated on NV:

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http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

He has noted on twitter that it's been a slow morning so far and Trump is in town, so it could be a mediocre day for Dems. Still, they ended up turning around a slow morning yesterday, so we'll have to see how day's end looks.

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Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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After looking for 20 minutes after the rally ended, Meghan learns that the buses are on the way and showing up at the main valet hall. Between the time and confusion, have to imagine they'll have lost some possible votes on this one (in a state they desperately need help in).

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Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.