The absentee/early vote thread

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SEPTA now on strike could pose problems on ED in PA if people can't get to polls. Incredibly reckless on unions part a lot of them are so shortsighted when it comes to things like this.

https://twitter.com/pkcapitol/status/792730396882571265

Would be shocked if an agreement of some sort isn't reached. If I trust in anything in this world, it's the deep connection between PA Dem pols and the big PA unions. They'll get done what's necessary.

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So, that's what we're going to do today? We're going to panic? Not-so-great to mixed day yesterday. Let's see how the week keeps unfolding. Been a weird stretch with NV's Friday holiday, the weekend, and then Monday Halloween. And then of course all the oppo flying around and the fact that many GOTV rally stops are in coming (such as Clinton's upcoming in NV).

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And Ralston asks you to stop back from that ledge, my friend, in NV:

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And in fact he also just dropped his daily update:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

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All looks fine in CO:

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What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

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What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

EDIT: misstake...

In 2008, Obama won EV by 9 4% (correct me if I'm wrong), he won NV 9%.
In 2012, Obama    lost EV by  2%                                     , he won by  5%.

EV is not that pretty predictive. With reservation that laws didn't change too much.

Hmmm....do you have a link for that '08 number? Electproject has the party difference in '08 as D+1.

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Cohn is breaking down the Upshot's model and its current stance:

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Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

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Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

CO is all Mail so EV never really ends

And as for the rest, it's all over the map. Column O of this spreadsheet has them all:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vthw8zjKSm1ziPjX50dumTkO2rd4JguC6yxt-KKzgkA/edit#gid=0

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To FL and NV: FL stayed basically at the same margin it has been at and NV produced the same bad numbers for Dems on the same early voting day in '12. So neither of those really do seem to have shown much difference. CO has to get back to even for Clinton to only win by 6, and it was expected to do so. NC is a different beast, and I do think that it will be very very close, and probably tilts R until we see a shift in the EV trend (which may come, as some think it will. I'm a tad less confident in that).

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Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

I don't than really understand what then the model is? As I understand this tweet, it is just a poll, but instead of LV model, thay use actual results, right? Intresting and, actually, a good news for Trump, if it is true.

It's at least not bad news. The model is pinned entirely to Upshot's NC+7, and they have her at +5.5, which she certainly shouldn't love. That said, if she leads polls by more than 1.5 on ED, this model says she wins.

All of that said, if there's anything wrong with the underpinnings of Upshot's demos, the whole thing is worthless.

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Well, the current EV results confirm what we already know:

NV and CO seem to be safe D, FL and NC seem to be lean R.

I still don't see how you can conclude that from NC given who the unaffiliated voters are, much less the public polling showing her ahead in every poll and the internal poll leaks as well.

I don't know how anyone can conclude anything about NC or FL right now. Between new voters, UAFs, current vs historical demos, and tight polling, I can't put the tea leaves into any legible order at all.

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People are reading way too much into these early voting numbers. They certainly don't prove that FL looks good for Trump or that ME-02 is gone for Trump. I'd rather trust the polls, tbh.

With rare exception (CO and NV, as far as I'm concerned), I agree with you.

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"FL still tied", as Murray notes, but 40-40-19 in FL is probably a better look for Dems than 42-42-16. At any rate, this is handy to have all in one place.

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Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

He's already said he banked on today being low, due to historic trends in EV there. He's not forecasting with that last phrase, he's trolling. That's not to say the numbers will or won't end up okay by week's end, but he's having fun right now.

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Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

It amuses him. He tells it a lot straighter in his blogs or when asked by a journo. He's really not worth following during the day.

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Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

But, of course, that tweet was just Jon's irresistible urge to troll. The follow up:

@RalstonReports

Comparisons for Washoe (Reno) after 11 days of early voting:
2016: Dems +1,900
2012: Dems +300

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Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

Damn

fascinating how suddenly this pattern breaks down..... guess we should count on an equal margin.

I think my post about his follow up tweet got lost in the mix. Per Ralston's cold-water follow up tweet,  after today, Dems are up 1,600 votes in Washoe from 2012.

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Don't knee-jerk react to Ralston. He gets off on it.

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Thanks for such a thorough update, NOVA! These numbers are indeed encouraging.

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This sounds good out of FL:

@joshuarhicks

@steveschale in other FLA news , Broward was stronger in turnout today & Palm Beach had their best EV day yet! still waiting on Miami-Dade.

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I just saw a tweet which made me think about all the worry in Florida with black voters.  Turnout among them is up compared to 2012, however due to huge surge in both whites and Hispanics it isn't showing up in the percentages. 

If (***and only if***) the white growth is a split growth between educated and not, it's a great sign.

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Those WI numbers look good indeed.

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If early vote results are available for Ohio please report them.

I'm afraid I haven't seen much today, but that's one state where I don't have any of the connections. Hopefully we'll hear soon.

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The selected results earlier already implied this, but:

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When a heavy partisan writes an article with such pessimistic outlook, it continues to solidify the fact that NV is gone.