UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Good Habit]

Well, basically there are only TWO possible options: Hard (most likely "no deal") Brexit with PM Johnson - or - (possibly) a delay with PM Corbyn.. - as Corbyn is not really a remainer, and Labour is quite split on the Brexit issue, he - and Labour - doesnt have an incentive to pay a high price for a second referendum - so Labour won't support an alternative government without the official Leader of the Opposition becoming PM.

So - the options are:
1. no agrement about a vote of no confidence, October 31th passes with no deal Brexit. In the week that follows, Johnson calls for a snap election for december 5th, purges the Tory from his internal opponents, realigns with Farage (I have delivered) and wins with >40% a clear majority against a split opposition-
2. There is a vote of no conficence (succesful) - but no agreement about a interim PM. (For Labour it has to be Corbyn..) So Johnson remains as acting PM und calls a Snap Election for November 14th... - October 31th passes without an extension.. (just may be - the EU offers one against the wish of the British Goverment - "as there is an Election ongoin, we grant the future Government the right to unilaterally ratify the (old) Brexit agrement or to recall article 50, until end of march 2020..) But most likely, Johnson unites with Farage, wins the Election with a strong majority, and most goes as under 1#.
3. There is a succesful vote of no confidence, parliament shows that the Leader of the Opposition (Corbyn) would have a majorty, so he moves to number 10. He asks for an extension of at least 6 to 12 months, "as the UK parliament has just started to do serious business..." - and gets it... An elections is called - say - for January 23th, 2020.
now - Johnson - who can claim to have been "backstabbed" - remains Tory Leader and manages to de-select the internal opposition, but re-conciles with Farage..
So the options are: the Lib-Dems sacrifice themselves - "vote Corbyn - because thats the only way to stop Johnson" - or they don't. If they don't, Johnson likely wins a Landslide, gets back in power and stays for 5 years... If they do, there is a change that Labour wins a majority, Corbyn remains in number 10 for quite some time. He will likely propose a softer Brexit as alternative to remain, but will not put the party to the whip on that question. So the second referendum most likely goes to the Corbynite soft-Brexit - with Brexiters having no alternative - unless, of course, the Torys will campaign for "remain", in the hope that the EU will put brakes on on the economic plans of a Corbyn government...

Theoretically, a new BEP (British European Pary) could become the official opposition - result of massive defection from both Labour and the Torys. This seems, however, rather unlikely... This ship has most likely sailed a long time ago - the obvious time would have been just after the last general election, when Theresa May failed to win a clear majority.. (If she had, Brexit could be treated as a purely internal question of the Torys..) - but farsightedness is usually not among the qualities very common in politics...