2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Ehh, it still might be the best longterm play

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

I’m pretty sure that’d be a hard pass. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Until Republicans support a national gerrymandering ban, my only response to this is: “Take your crocodile tears somewhere else.  What goes around comes around.”

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Until Republicans support a national gerrymandering ban, my only response to this is: “Take your crocodile tears somewhere else.  What goes around comes around.”

I'll personally support a national gerrymandering ban when Democrats acknowledge that districts drawn that disintegrate regions to ensure the election of a person from a certain ethnicity qualifies as gerrymandering and will likewise be banned.

It's New Jersey. Why are people surprised it's corrupt?

No offense, but when I say that, I mean congressional Republicans.  That’s what really matters in this context.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone who supports a gerrymander and says "Well if Republicans supported fair maps we wouldn't have to do this" obviously does not care about a fair redistricting process in the first place.

I don't agree with this at all. Democrats do support a fair process, there's just no reason for them to unilaterally disarm.

If you support Democratic gerrymandering, then you do not support a fair process. Either you support a fair process, in which you would oppose all gerrymanders, or you support a fair process only when it benefits Democrats and support gerrymandering only when it benefits Democrats.

Supporting fair maps in GOP states and gerrymanders in Dem states just means that you're being a partisan hack. Any thinking that arrives at a different conclusion is delusional.

I support a national ban on partisan gerrymandering, but until that happens, Democrats should gerrymander the hell out of everywhere they can whenever they can using any and all means at their disposal.  There's nothing inconsistent about opposing unilateral disarmament.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Brittain33 is being honest here but national Democrats goals are Pr or efficiency gap in MI and PA and Wi but in states like CA minority seats come foremost. We would never see the south Brooklyn seat because it it probably takes away the north Manhattan seat even though a south Brooklyn seat is both great on COI grounds and great for partisan responsiveness

Based on a "challenge" by Sol, who opined that it seemed difficult to unite Woke White Park Slope with similar hoods in Manhattan, without messing up minority CD's and so forth, I drew a COI map that I think did the job, which just using neutral redistricting metrics and hewing to COI's, turns out to be pretty much of a Pub wet dream, but hey it gives them a proportionate share using the proper metric (1- ((.6076-.5) x 2) +.5) x 26 = 7.4048 seats).

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fe817ecb-ce7f-405e-8a00-6e2fcc802294

How did I do? 

FWIW, I've come around on a Republican Southern Brooklyn seat.

Why?  There’s no good reason to make one.