Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Movies that are basically done now (IMO), that will be nominated for Oscars but won't win:

- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women (still tiny chance for Score, Supporting Actress)
- Ford V Ferrari (can still win technical stuff, no acting directing screenplay)
- The Two Popes
- The Farewell (Awkwafina won but Drama actresses are all "better")
- Knives Out

Definitely disagree on Jojo Rabbit, that one is gonna play far better with the guilds and Oscars than anyone else.  If Taika Watiti gets a Best Director nomination tomorrow (sadly, I don’t think he will) and Johansson also gets a supporting actress nomination (I do think this will happen) then Jojo Rabbit is one of the frontrunners for BP.  Otherwise, it’ll have to make due with having like a 40% chance of winning Best Adapted Screenplay and various nominations.  In other words, the jury is still out on that one.

Did anybody else like Ricky Gervais ripping into Hollywood and all the actors/actresses? I was amazed with how hard he went after everybody. Good for you Ricky.

Full opening monologue, audio only
(NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE)
https://youtu.be/o2y99o99GTg

He’s always been one of the few good awards show hosts for this reason.  The Globes let him do his thing.  If you have Chris Rock, you gotta let him do race jokes.  If you have Jon Stewart, you gotta let him do political jokes.  If you have some random old person or two random actors, you’re doing it wrong and would be better off with no host.

I can't see Jojo Rabbit (Taika) winning Director. It would need Best Adaped Screenplay to win Best Picture.

(EDIT - Oops, keep thinking Hollywood is Adapted, but that's The Irishman. Scratch all of that about Hollywood being a lock moreso than before for Adapted Screenplay)

The Irishman will probably still beat Jojo Rabbit. All that being said, I hope I'm wrong. I LOVED Jojo Rabbit.

Also, Oscars nominations aren't being announced Monday (today), they're next Monday (January 13th). Unless you meant BAFTA / PGA / some other nominations which are coming Tuesday (tomorrow).

Taika doesn't need to win Best Director for Jojo Rabbit to win BP, just a nomination.  Jojo Rabbit is a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay if that happens.  Also, my bad re: when they'll be announced.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DGA:

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Jojo Rabbit just might pull off a BP win after all

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  

Parasite is struggling a bit yeah, whereas The Irishman and Marriage Story are really sinking fast. The PGAs on Saturday and the BAFTAs in three weeks are probably Parasite's last couple of chances to show it can hang with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (and to a lesser extent 1917).

I think Best Picture at the Oscars will play out one of these ways now:

via Original Screenplay - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (most likely scenario)
via Director - 1917 or maybe Parasite
via Adapted Screenplay - this winner won't win Best Picture this year, unless it's a huge upset

I do think that Jojo Rabbit is probably the most likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay at this point, although Little Women winning wouldn't surprise me.  I actually don't see The Irishman winning at this point, it's slowly going the way of Marriage Story (lots of nominations, but few wins).  I agree though that Jojo Rabbit won't win BP, it needed a Best Director nomination for that to be in the cards imo.  As I've said all along, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood feels like the slight frontrunner for Best Picture.    

Fun fact: If Tarantino wins Best Original Screenplay, I believe he'll have tied Woody Allen's record for most wins in that category.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So who's supposedly the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor? I suppose that Phoenix, Ronan and Johannsen are for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What does the Best Director race look like?

Probably a toss-up between Tarantino, Bong-Joon Ho, and Mendes with the latter two being slightly favored.  Small chance that Scorsese wins here, but that means The Irishman is already winning Best Adapted Screenplay, BP, and perhaps even Best Supporting Actor.  Phillips is the only one with no shot, but the nomination is the win for him here.  

Anyway, key take-aways:

- Joker's performance is a great example of how the Academy's very weird voting system often favors relatively mainstream contenders that are still much rougher-around-the-edges than typical Oscar fare and thus have a really passionate support base in the academy...albeit one that is numerically too small to win in most categories (The Wolf of Wall Street is another great example of this sort of surprise over-performance).  Joker probably wins Best Actor and maybe Best Original Score, but nothing else.

- Marriage Story is tanking hard

- Glad De Niro didn't get a lazy (and quite undeserved) nomination

- Taika Waititi's Best Director miss means no BP win for Jojo Rabbit, but I do think it'll get Best Adapted Screenplay as a consolation prize.  As I suspected, the Academy and guilds clearly liked it far more than the critics did.  

- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the slight BP frontrunner

- Parasite doesn't have the below the line branch support to win BP imo.  It needs to win Best Ensemble (SAG) or Best Picture at the PGA to have any shot there.

- The 1917 surge is real and Mendes probably has a small lead for Best Director, but it depends whether more people want to reward 1917 or Parasite with a consolation prize...or if Tarantino is just running the board (less likely).  

- Frozen II missed

- Kitbull got nominated for best animated short

- Glad to see The Lighthouse get a much deserved cinematography nod

- American Factory is probably winning Best Documentry

- Really annoyed Luptia N'yongo missed for Best Actress

- Us, The Farewell, and Uncut Gems got completely shut out

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Same as yours except 1917 as Best Picture.

Cinematography is correct.

Has Brad Pitt ever won an Oscar.

It's a shame Lighthouse was snubbed.

Brad Pitt won Best Picture; he was one of the producers of 12 Years Slave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.

I still say Parasite is a long-shot and it’s a two-way race between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Last Thing He Ever Wanted is a The Accountant-type commercial thriller, not an awards play.  Also, I keep reading rumors that The Last Duel has some really gross/problematic gender politics (specifically regarding a rape scene).  I mean, it was written by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, but IIRC the initial script somehow raised so many eyebrows (in Hollywood, so that tells you how bad it was) that the studio pressured them to hire a female co-screenwriter to help clean it up.  Did she succeed?  We’ll see, but I don’t know that I’d call it a top-tier BP contender until we know how this likely controversy shakes out. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And now it's time to play If I had an Oscar Ballot...

Note #1: I considered Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) and Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) co-leads in their respective films.

Note #2: I still haven't seen Clemency, Richard Jewell, The Kingmaker, American Dharma, or One Child Nation

Best Picture
1. Marriage Story
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. 1917
4. Uncut Gems
5. The Report
6. Us
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Booksmart
9. Joker
10. Pet Sematary

Best Actor
1. Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Rabbit
2. Adam Driver - The Report

3. Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
4. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
5. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Best Actress
1. Lupita Nyong’o - Us

2. Elisabeth Moss - Her Smell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
4. Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale
5. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women

Best Director
1. 1917
2. Uncut Gems
3. Marriage Story
4. Us
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Jojo Rabbit
2. The Farewell
3. The Report
4. Joker
5. Pet Sematary


Best Original Screenplay
1. Marriage Story
2. Booksmart
3. Us
4. Parasite
5. Honey Boy

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Clafin - The Nightingale

2. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Baykali Ganambarr - The Nightingale
4. Ray Liotta - Marriage Story


5. Bill Hader - IT: Chapter 2

Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Seimetz - Pet Sematary
2. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
3. Jeté Laurence - Pet Sematary
4. Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell

5. Rebecca Ferguson - Doctor Sleep

Best Animated Film
1. Toy Story 4
2. Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus!
3. The Lego Movie: The Second Part

4. I Lost My Body
5. Frozen II  

Best Documentary
1. American Factory
2. Where’s My Roy Cohn?
3. Honeyland
4. Fyre
5. Hail Satan?

Best Foreign Film
1. Parasite (South Korea)
2. Les Misérables (France)

3. Honeyland (North Macedonia)
4. Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
5. Pain and Glory (Spain)

Best Original Score
1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Us
4. The Lighthouse
5. IT: Chapter 2

Best Original Song
1. (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman
2. Stand Up - Harriet
3. Speechless - Aladdin
4. The Hide and Seek Song - Ready Or Not
5. The Buddi Song - Child’s Play

Best Film Editing
1. Ford v Ferrari

2. The Report
3. 1917
4. Uncut Gems
5. Us

Best Cinematography
1. 1917
2. The Lighthouse
3. Midsommar
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Visual Effects
1. The Irishman
2. Shazam!

3. The Lion King
4. Pet Sematary
5. Detective Pikachu

Best Sound Editing
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Shazam!
3. Child’s Play

4. Pet Sematary
5. Us

Best Sound Mixing
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Uncut Gems
4. Rocketman
5. Pet Sematary

Best Makeup
1. Bombshell
2. Us
3. Pet Sematary
4. Child’s Play
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Art Direction
1. Doctor Sleep
2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Costume Design
1. Rocketman
2. The Two Popes
3. The Nightingale
4. 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Midsommar

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BEST PICTURE
1917

BEST DIRECTOR
1917 - Sam Mendes

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jojo Rabbit

BEST ACTOR
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS
Judy - Renee Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story - Laura Dern

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman

BEST EDITING
Ford V Ferrari

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell

BEST SOUND EDITING
1917

BEST SOUND MIXING
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Brotherhood

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Kitbull

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Learning To Skateboard In a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Parasite is gonna win

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gross.  Parasite is gonna win

I've never really "gotten" your tastes in media, jdb.

Ehh, to each their own.  I'll grant you that I have both very eclectic and decidedly idiosyncratic tastes, but I don't think that's a bad thing.  I mean, just to give one example: I thought Hereditary deserved to win Best Picture...but now that Bojack Horseman has ended, I consider https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilda_(TV_series) to be by far the best TV show currently on air.  I love Tarantino's films and my favorite genre is Horror, but I also loved My Big Fat Greek Wedding and cried like a baby when I watched Wonder because it was just that powerful a film.

I saw Parasite and I liked it well enough.  In fact, I liked it enough that I paid to see it a second time.  It was fine.  Nothing amazing, but a perfectly good thriller with a bunch of unexpectedly funny moments in the first half.  However, things went off the rails a little bit after the flood and the ending (beginning with the birthday party murders) just didn't work for me at all.  Most of the characters were pretty one-note too although the script was good enough that this didn't become too big a problem.  A good comparison is Black Panther: A perfectly fine movie worth a watch that rewards a second viewing...but that I also think got waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overhyped.  

Ultimately, Parasite was good and that's not a knock on it.  However, it wasn't a great movie and there were some truly great movies this year.  It's one thing to say Parasite was a good film.  But to say Parasite was better than something liker 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Ford V Ferrari, Marriage Story, Us, Uncut Gems, etc...honestly, I find it kinda mind-boggling.  

Again though, this is all completely subjective.  I mean, you looked at Marriage Story and saw another generic artsy types cheating on each other film while I saw the fourth best film of the decade.  I looked at Parasite and saw a well above average, but ultimately forgettable thriller whereas you saw an absolutely fantastic film.  You liked Little Women and didn't like Joker; I loved Joker and almost fell asleep in the theater during Little Women.  Neither of us is right or wrong.

Joaquin Phoenix’s speech was just...out there. Environmentalism isn’t the type of thing to talk about considering what the Oscar was for.

Especially given that the particular type of environmentalist rhetoric he used was dredged from the darkest depths of Vegan Tumblr. Yeesh.

Well, at least we can agree on this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congrats, #BongHive

Side Note: Of course, the Academy recognizes the first film by Bong Joon-Ho I've seen that I didn't absolutely love (Mother, Snowpiercer, The Host, and especially Okja were great).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congrats, #BongHive

Side Note: Of course, the Academy recognizes the first film by Bong Joon-Ho I've seen that I didn't absolutely love (Mother, Snowpiercer, The Host, and especially Okja were great).

I haven't seen Okja yet, but Snowpiercer's a bona fide masterpiece. I might rewatch it tomorrow.

Okja was phenomenal; I think you'll like it although we seem to have pretty different tastes, so who knows?  Snowpiercer was so well done and despite how little time we got with the characters they all somehow felt soooooooo well developed.  It had some excellent twists too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No chance Oppenheimer loses.

Oppenheimer is going to have a strong package, for sure.

Director + probably 1 or 2 of Actor and or Supporting Actor + also win some tech awards

For another movie to beat that, it's going to AT LEAST need Screenplay, and likely it would need Actress or Supporting Actress, or even better than that, Actor (which means Cillian Murphy loses) or Supporting Actor (which means Robert Downie Jr loses).

Movies we could imagine could do that right now...

Barbie - Adapted Screenplay + Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling)
Poor Things - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Emma Stone)
The Holdovers - Original Screenplay + Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph)
Killers Of The Flower Moon - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Lily Gladstone)

Also possible but not particularly likely...
American Fiction - Adapted Screenplay + Actor (Jeffrey Wright)

Maestro could win Actor, but I don't see it winning Screenplay or stealing Director away from Oppenheimer.

Past Lives or Anatomy Of A Fall could win Original Screenplay, but they won't win any acting awards.

Flower Moon could win Actor or Director

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flower Moon could win Actor or Director

Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.

Not even sure Cooper will get nominated for Best Actor.  He was decidedly meh and Maestro was a pretty bad movie.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flower Moon could win Actor or Director

Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.

Not even sure Cooper will get nominated for Best Actor.  He was decidedly meh and Maestro was a pretty bad movie.

The entire reason Maestro was made was to get Bradley Cooper an Oscar. It probably doesn’t have the steam to get there all the way, but when you’re as well liked in Hollywood as Cooper seems to be, this type of thing generally garners at least a nomination.

Maybe, but it was a really bad movie.  I don’t usually have to repeatedly rewind a movie due to falling asleep multiple times out of sheer boredom.  And Cooper’s performance wasn’t anything special, although it wasn’t an embarrassment like whatever Carey Mulligan was doing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Final Oscar Predictions:

* = a lock

Picture:
American Fiction
*Anatomy of a Fall
*Barbie
*The Holdovers
*Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
*Oppenheimer
*Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Alternate: All of Us Strangers

Actor:
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
*Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Alternate: Coleman Domingo (Rustin)

Actress:
*Lilly Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie (Barbie)
*Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Alternate: Greta Lee (Past Lives)

Director:
Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Yargos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
*Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
*Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

Alternate: Justine Trier (Anatomy of a Fall)

Adapted Screenplay:
*American Fiction
*Barbie (absurd categorization that no one but AMPAS agrees with)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
*Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:
*Anatomy of a Fall
*The Holdovers
*May December
Maestro
Past Lives

Alternate: Saltburn

Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
*Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Alternate: Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Supporting Actress:
*Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
*Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Jodie Foster (NYAD)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)
*Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Alternate: Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)

Editing:
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
*Killers of the Flower Moon
*Oppenheimer
*Poor Things

Alternate: The Holdovers

Foreign Film:
Fallen Leaves
Perfect Days
*Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things ( )
*The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Teacher’s Lounge

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

EMMA STONE WINS!!!

One of the few actresses ever to have been able to clinch a second acting Oscar by the age of 35.

You all really should see Poor Things. It's true that there are quite a few sex scenes, but it's a very beautiful film, nonetheless.

Poor Things was a gross and deeply misogynistic film.  And it was a lousy one at that.  The costume design was solid, but otherwise very little good that can be said about it.