ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R, but Collins is overrated; IIRC her approval rating is in the mid-40s.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R, but Collins is overrated; IIRC her approval rating is in the mid-40s.

But the one poll taken (after the Kavanaugh debacle mind you) also has her beating Gideon by 21. Her approval's definitely recovered a fair bit. I'll have it as Likely R for now barring major shifts.

Actually, a poll from late last month had her job approval at 41-42 disapprove (i.e. -1%).  I'm starting it at Lean R, but much closer to Tilt R than Likely R.  I suspect Collins will end up losing though.   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

She seems decent, but we obviously need someone better.

You all keep saying this, but you can’t come up with anybody.

Troy Jackson

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sherylnyt/status/1280512953687650304?s=21

Too little, too late

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

They really do write themselves, this took 2 minutes and three seconds:

Lessons:

"[insert clip of Collins saying Trump learned his lesson]. For once, Susan Collins was right.  Donald Trump learned his lesson: That the days when 'country before party' still meant something to Susan Collins are long gone.  Instead, Susan Collins voted to keep President Trump in office even after he was impeached for multiple crimes, despite bipartisan support in the Senate for his conviction.  When the time came to defend a woman's right to choose, Susan Collins voted to confirm Trump's radical anti-choice judges and turned her back on #MeToo survivors like Dr. Blaisey-Ford by voting to put Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.

Now with unemployment soaring and COVID-19 ravaging our nation, Susan Collins is still standing with Donald Trump, even as he continues to defend Confederate traitors while tear-gassing Americans peacefully protesting police brutality. [insert clip of Collins saying Trump learned his lesson].  This November, let's show Donald Trump that he wasn't the only one who learned their lesson when Susan Collins voted to keep him in office."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Collins says today that she wants 16 debates, one in each county.

The only logical conclusion from this statement is that Collins is down in her internals.

I bet she does

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’s certainly low key dog-whistling, although Omar’s “all about the Benjamins” comment was much worse.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

Collins really does want to be like one of her biggest inspirations - down to where she also loses her bid for a fifth term.

It's interesting how Margaret Chase-Smith lost reelection in a year that Richard Nixon swept the state with more than 60% of the vote against George McGovern. Obviously, Maine (and the country) were far less polarized back then, and ticket-splitting was much more common. It is this which now could be Collins' undoing, as I don't think she'll run ahead of Trump enough to win, although she does still have a chance.

Her problem is that she has cast key votes for clearly partisan reasons that were widely at odds with the state she represents on three extremely high-profile issues:

1) The GOP tax bill (which IIRC gutted the individual mandate*);

2) Casting the de facto deciding vote for Brett Kavanaugh (since Manchin would‘ve likely voted against confirming Kavanaugh if Collins did).  This is the one that really started causing Democrats to start seeing her as just Republican. 

3) She voted against removing Trump from office and then he made her look like an idiot with the “learned his lesson“ incident.

TL;DR: Collins seems to have mistakenly assumed that 2016 meant that Maine was Trump-curious enough that she could safely vote how she wanted.  Plus, Collins’ schtick required her to fly under the radar, but now she has Democrats’ attention in a way she never has before.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1303737180527955969

Yeah, because that worked out so well for the last Republican Senator that Lieberman endorsed.

In other news, Republican endorses another Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

LMAO what world have you been living in?

In 2008, Collins was initially seen as vulnerable, and she faced a credible opponent that year-then Rep. Tom Allen from Maine's 1st congressional district. Collins, however, ended up defeating Allen by 23%, even while Obama was carrying Maine by 18% against John McCain at the same time. Nevertheless, as I myself have said, this is not 2008 anymore. The country is much more polarized, and Collins is far less popular than she was 12 years ago.

Collins was always considered safe in 2008 despite facing a credible opponent.  The race was never really a priority for either party that cycle.