Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bye, Young!

I now accept my accolades

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So glad Cisneros won!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

They can force court-drawn maps

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

IIRC, the DCCC did start targeting IL-13 and IL-14 (good call on their part btw, I don’t think IL-14 was on most people’s radar until pretty late in the game) shortly after the IL primaries although I could be mistaken.  Either way, one also has to give them credit for the good stuff they did like their handling of the CA jungle primaries (we didn’t get boxed out in any competitive races and they brokered a truce in CA-39 between Thorburn and Cisneros), unseating Curbelo (the ads definitely made a big difference here), recruiting some strong candidates* in seats that otherwise would’ve likely been lost/not been competitive due to either a weak nominee or gone uncontested, finding someone (however flawed) to run against Valadao instead of letting him run unopposed (which also may’ve saved Josh Harder since he arguably only avoided getting boxed out in the jungle primary b/c Cox switched races).  While they definitely made some mistakes (*cough* Donna Shalala *cough*), overall I’m pretty satisfied with D-trip’s performance this cycle.

*Ex: Tom Malinowski, the woman from NM-2 (not gonna even try and spell her name), Dean Phillips (I remember when the DCCC had to really work to convince someone credible to run against unbeatable titan Erik Paulson ), Anthony Brindisi, Ben McAdams, Ron DiNiccola (almost won), Elaine Lauria, Clarke Tucker (came pretty close), Paul Davis (lost by less than 1% in KS-2), Branden Kelly (we made the Republicans compete in IL-12), Dan Feehan (barely lost, I think we can retake this seat in 2020 with Trump on the ballot and since Hagedorn has all the makings of a really weak incumbent), etc.

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

So maybe Ashford would’ve won after all

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

I’d say more than that; just off the top of my head, I think the following incumbents (in no particular order) could realistically be vulnerable

Lee Zeldin
Peter King
John Katko
Tom Reed
Mike Kelly
Brian Fitzpatrick
Scott Perry
Dever Riggleman
Ted Budd
George Holding
Mark Harris
Rob Woodall
Vern Buchanan
Brian Mast
Will Hurd
Kenny Merchant
Chip Roy
John Carter
French Hill
Andy Barr
Steve Chabot
Troy Balderson
David Joyce (need a real A-lister though)
Justin Amash
Tim Wahlberg
Fred Upton
Rodney Davis
Steve Watkins (if Paul Davis runs again)
Don Bacon
Jim Hagedorn
Pete Stauber (Need a real A-lister)
Greg Gianforte
Jamie Herrera-Beutler
David Valadao (if he wins)

So that’s like 30 or so seats just off the top of my head

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Democrat won win the GA-7 Recount.

snip

Link?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Good thing Tim walz district was lost. He voted like he was from Ca 12th in a trump +15 district.

1) We have a decent shot at picking it back up in two years, 2) Walz is now Governor, 3) You know Hagedorn is an anti-Semite, right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is NY-22 going to be called this century or....

I believe either CNN or the NYT called it for Brindisi before Thanksgiving, but I forget which one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well, one thing a Democratic president would have going for them in 2022 is that the maps this time will probably be a lot more fair, even before considering any more split governments created from the 2020 elections. So even if they lost the House in 2022, they could quite possibly gain it back in 2024.

Are there any states that are likelier to have fairer maps due to having elected Democratic governors this year? The states that I can think of that were ground zero for the Republican gerrymandering after 2010--Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, possibly others I'm forgetting--have mostly instituted various forms of nonpartisan, bipartisan, or court-ordered redistricting now, with the exception of Wisconsin, where I'm wary of the possibility of the legislature stripping Evers of his power to veto new maps (if they haven't already).

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are guaranteed to have fair maps because Democrats control the state supreme courts. In Michigan they control the governorship and an independent redistricting commission just passed via referendum. In Virginia they will probably control the trifecta after next year's elections. Ohio and Florida will probably be the same, if not slightly worse. In Wisconsin even if the lege strips Evers' veto power the state supreme court might strike down that law if Democrats win the next two elections and get the majority.
The big question mark is Texas where Democrats have a realistic chance to flip the state house and block any Republican gerrymandering.

You got almost everything right, but you missed OH. The state commission, while R controlled and weak, has to obey certain laws when drawing their maps. The Cincinnati area would be forced as a tossup-lean D district, so the Ds could make a gain there. Otherwise, you got everything important.

Yeah, they'll probably be forced to concede a Cincinnati vote sink. But they will dismantle Ryan's district, so eventually it'll be a wash.

Wouldn't Ryan just run against David Joyce?  Joyce's district already isn't THAT Republican and adding Youngstown to the district will make it even less so.

Youngstown trends aren't good

It would still provide a base for Ryan.  Hillary still won Machining county and a district including Mahoning as well as Lake, Geauga, Ashtabla, and Trumbull wouldn't be terrible for Ryan.

Ryan is a much stronger incumbent than Joyce and has a pretty solid personal vote in certain parts of that district.  I think Ryan would be favored if the districts were merged tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

sorry I thought I posted it

yeah I would just keep an eye on it. Its most likely a salty loser but if it expands we can probably add it to the NC thread?

This, but I'd caution that Harrell has been kinda throwing a public temper-tantrum ever since she lost.