2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mai Khanh Tran or Jay Chen should've been the nominee especially considering how influential Asians are in this district.

Tran would’ve done waaaaaaaay worse.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

The same reason why we nominated Cisneros, Wallace, and Gershon: they're well-connected rich people who got the establishment on their side.

You were the biggest Shalala cheerleader on Atlas.  Also Gershon was not the establishment candidate in NY-1.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

Yeah, Dems need to stop trying to make CA-21 happen.

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

It is because no Democrats participate in the political process enough to actually vote in CA-21, much less run for office.

Actually, we have a top-shelf A-list potential candidate in Rudy Salas (who I suspect is [wisely] waiting until 2020 to run) and several other decent potential candidates (though none as strong as Salas would be) such as Henry Perea.  There are a variety of reasons why none of these folks have run, but I think Valadao is probably gonna lose once he faces a solid opponent in even a neutral year. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

A desperate plea not to be triaged?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

Why is the Green polling so well?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1047462602786234370

Eugene DePasquale should be kicking himself right now

Not really since he wants to be governor, plus Perry will probably lose anyway; he’s a really weak incumbent IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

Yeah I’m seriously blanking on why Walters is down 7 while Rohrabacher is tied.

God truly hates me

Rohrabacher is much more entrenched and hasn't embraced Trump as much as Walters.

I think the article said Rohrabacher was over-performing with (already conservative) Vietnamese voters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

Personally surprised to see Cisneros back in the lead, perhaps Monmouth overestimated R support, perhaps this poll is skewed D, or perhaps CA has really shifted due to Kavanaugh? I dont know, but overall, great results for Ds.

For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

Weren’t you the guy who used to have NY avatar and was telling everyone the sky was falling because of #WalkAway?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

It's not without reason. The two pieces of evidence were Republican strength in the primary (albeit because of a special election) and a recent poll showing Kim reverse burbstomping Cisneros.

I don’t think that the Republican strength here on primary day was so great as to warrant acting like this is a Lean R race and one poll...well...this is a great example of why it can be good to not read too much into one poll.  We don’t know which of these polls is the one that’s way off.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1048575528469495808

:thinking_emoji:

Some possibilities (aside from Merchant and Duffy) although IDK whether any of them would fit the bill regarding the fundraising numbers: Ken Calvert, Justin Amash, Mike Turner, Pete Olson (there have been rumblings in some Republicans that he's running a surprisingly weak campaign), Michael McCaul, and Gus Bilirakis.

David Schweikert, Bill Huizenga, Don Young, Vern Buchanan, Tom Reed, Peter King, and Chris Smith also came to mind, but IIRC their challengers were raising at least somewhat decent-ish amounts of money or at least, not getting blown out of the water by a 50-1 margin on the fundraising front (although I may be misremembering).

If I had to guess, I'd say Justin Amash since Wasserman has hinted several times over the past 1-2 weeks that MI-3 is a good example of a seat that may end up flipping despite being a complete recruiting failure.  Justin Amash was elected eight years ago (2010) and is apparently only R +6 (at least according to Wikipedia).  Amash isn't exactly the best fit for this area and it includes Grand Rapids and all of Calhoun County (Battle Creek).  Obviously this is a pretty conservative area, but Amash would seem to fit the description Wasserman gave and Trump "only" got 52% here (granted, he improved on Romney's overall margin by 3%, but that's not all that much for a conservative Republican district in Michigan).  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

Multiple polls have shown Heitkamp and Bredesen collapsing. Kavanaugh is pretty clearly, at minimum, hurting the Dems in the crimson red states.

I've only seen one poll showing Bredesen far behind, he definitely hurt Heitkamp though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

Great news for McGrath!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It does have a B+ rating at 538

Doesn't matter really who is up by couple of points right now, the point is it's competitve and it was to be among easiest pickups for Dems. So this district, Curbelo's and Hurd's all going much much better for Republicans than thought off. Draw your conclusion.

I haven't seen much evidence lately that Curbelo is in good shape (I have that seat at Tilt-D right now and it seems to be moving in the Democrats' direction lately), but Hurd definitely looks like he's in the driver's seat (which is odd b/c Jones doesn't seem like a particularly weak candidate nor does Hurd seem to be running a particularly noteworthy campaign; given the results of the recent State Senate special, I kinda wonder if there's some sort of local factors at play in the TX-23 area).  In any case, Shalala will probably win by an embarrassing, but not razor-thin margin.  Something like 54-46% sounds about right.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hurd district is Clinton + 3
Curbelo is clinton + 16

Doesn't take a genius to figure out that Curbelo is in a much worse position than Hurd

Well, yes, but for much of the cycle there have been tons of #HotTakes about how Curbelo is some sort of unstoppable political wunderkind and it seems pretty clear that voters in his district are increasingly breaking against him at this point (at least imo).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-7a9a-d3f0-a1f7-ff9aa00a0000

NY-22 The Polling Company (Citizens United/R internal): Tenney (R-inc) 50, Brindisi (D) 42

How good is that for an internal? That could probably mean that there is a real race on their hands.

Nah, Brindisi will likely win pretty easily here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Seems like the flagging Republicans are flooding us with last minute internals in order to convince us that they are not dead yet. Remains to be see if this is true (doubtful).

They're just resting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel

Some Jews have probably trended away in part because of their grandstanding on Israel. It comes across as really phony.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The playing footsie with Nazis in Charlottesville and not mentioning Jews during the Holocaust Remembrance Day announcement hit home a *little* more than whether Trump moved the Embassy or that Kushner is Jewish. Also, Jews have a high rate of secondary education so go along for the ride with that swing.

That too, especially Charlottesville

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also getting a Monmouth CA-48 poll tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the lack of funds for Rohrabacher (both internal and external) has taken effect.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

No one is donating to Rohrabacher's campaign yet he's winning? Doesn't seem to jive. Not to mention *85%* of Rs and Ds being interested is ludicrous. That # is way too high.

The bottom line is that Trump barely got, what, 48% in this district? And now 48% *strongly approve*? That's insane.

While I think Rouda will ultimately win a really narrow victory here, I've always felt this would be the toughest nut to crack of the California seats.  Admittedly, that's been more of a gut sense than anything else, but I'm definitely less confident about my prediction that Rohrabacher will lose than I am about my predictions that we'll pick-up Denham, Issa, Royce, Walters, and Knight's seats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pretty clear that Feehan is leading.