NV-4: Rep. Ruben Kihuen accused of sexual harassment, announces retirement

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

These are probably the least severe at of all the sexual harassment claims we've seen. Asked her if she had a boyfriend? Put his hand on her thigh? Bad, creepy, but really not resignation worthy.

Any sexual harassment by a public official is resignation worthy.

This

Lucy Flores please

Or we could try not pissing away what should be a safe house seat.  Flores is like the one person capable of blowing this race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Those texts were so cringey I got second hand embarrassment. Why hasn't he resigned yet?

Jesus, you're right. They're kinda...pathetic in their cringey-ness. I should do a thing every time a congressman's texts are exposed and make fun/cringe at their awfulness.

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Finally, a man who brags about working out his...thighs?

They remind me of Robert Bentley's texts only with a bunch of emojis.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Probably not except in a one-on-one against Lee (ironically a one-on-one with Villela is probably also Lee's only shot at this seat).  Lee is something of a ConservaDem (IIRC) who would do badly not only with the more activist wing, but also with unions, the party establishment (although I doubt they'd be big on Villela either), and more mainstream liberals.  Aside from maybe the party establishment, I think all those groups would be all-in for Villela if Lee was the only alternative.  That said, I could also see a scenario where in a one-on-one Lee wipes the floor with Villela.  O/c, I highly doubt Lee and Villela will be the only candidates.

Steven Horsford probably has right of first refusal here and would absolutely wipe the floor with Villela.  That said, I don't think Horsford wants it.  He's supposedly pretty content with his current position, doesn't seem terribly interested, and per Ralston has had some sort of health issues.  Spearman would likely finish ahead of Villela too even in a divided field, but I think the strongest GE candidate and likely winner of the primary if she runs is Cancela.  Assuming Horsford doesn't run, this seat is probably Cancela's if she wants it. 

Villela's best shot is for Kihuen to resign and to then be chosen the activist wing (if they can takeover some of the internal Clark County/state party machinery) to fill out the rest of Kihuen's term.  The primary still wouldn't be a sure thing and Villela would likely lose pretty badly if the Reid machine decided to run Cancela, Horsford, or probably even Spearman, but at least there would be a chance of incumbency reducing the risk of a primary challenge.  As things stand, if Kihuen doesn't resign, it won't be just a Villela vs. Lee contest, so Villela probably doesn't have a path to victory. 

In any event, the Reid machine isn't gonna just give this seat away for free to a random some dude Justice Dem.  Ultimately, I think Villela will end up being a non-factor in the race as some combination of Lee, Spearman, and Cancela run with the winner of the primary being either Cancela or Horsford (I doubt both run, but I'd be surprised if neither does) by a pretty wide margin.  In the event neither do run, the Reid machine will simply pick someone else.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Probably not except in a one-on-one against Lee (ironically a one-on-one with Villela is probably also Lee's only shot at this seat).  Lee is something of a ConservaDem (IIRC) who would do badly not only with the more activist wing, but also with unions, the party establishment (although I doubt they'd be big on Villela either), and more mainstream liberals.  Aside from maybe the party establishment, I think all those groups would be all-in for Villela if Lee was the only alternative.  That said, I could also see a scenario where in a one-on-one Lee wipes the floor with Villela.  O/c, I highly doubt Lee and Villela will be the only candidates.

Steven Horsford probably has right of first refusal here and would absolutely wipe the floor with Villela.  That said, I don't think Horsford wants it.  He's supposedly pretty content with his current position, doesn't seem terribly interested, and per Ralston has had some sort of health issues.  Spearman would likely finish ahead of Villela too even in a divided field, but I think the strongest GE candidate and likely winner of the primary if she runs is Cancela.  Assuming Horsford doesn't run, this seat is probably Cancela's if she wants it. 

Villela's best shot is for Kihuen to resign and to then be chosen the activist wing (if they can takeover some of the internal Clark County/state party machinery) to fill out the rest of Kihuen's term.  The primary still wouldn't be a sure thing and Villela would likely lose pretty badly if the Reid machine decided to run Cancela, Horsford, or probably even Spearman, but at least there would be a chance of incumbency reducing the risk of a primary challenge.  As things stand, if Kihuen doesn't resign, it won't be just a Villela vs. Lee contest, so Villela probably doesn't have a path to victory. 

In any event, the Reid machine isn't gonna just give this seat away for free to a random some dude Justice Dem.  Ultimately, I think Villela will end up being a non-factor in the race as some combination of Lee, Spearman, and Cancela run with the winner of the primary being either Cancela or Horsford (I doubt both run, but I'd be surprised if neither does) by a pretty wide margin.  In the event neither do run, the Reid machine will simply pick someone else.

From left to right, it goes  Villela > Cancela > Sperman > Lee. Although I think Villela may have an outside shot if it's Lee vs. Sperman vs. Vilela, largely because Lee and Sperman will likely take the Clinton vote, while Vilela becomes the Berniecrat, I can't find CD data for the 2016 causes and I doubt Bernie preformed well there. If the Reid machine was smart, they'd just let Vilela win this thing, since Vilela can definitely win the general in this environment, but Reid wants someone who can do his bidding in Congress. 

If that happens, the Reid machine will throw its full weight behind Spearman, Lee will probably drop out again and Villela will lose badly either way.  Folks need to stop acting like every primary is a Berniecrat vs. Clintonite proxy battle.  That primary ended last year and the party really isn't divided along those lines anymore.  Honestly, the Clintons really aren't even relevant anymore no matter how much some of the more fringe Sanders supporters wish they still had Hillary to kick around (for my part, I'm glad the party's finally rid of her and don't get why some Berniecrats keep trying to pretend that the Clintons still have any real pull in the Democratic Party).