IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully we can finally get rid of Lipinski this cycle!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And the 3rd Congressional is not what you think of as Chicago. I mean look at this map. Yes, the furthest NE corner of the map are in Chicago, but the vast majority of the district is in the blue-collar suburbs, with a population largely made up of religious descendents of Irish, Polish, Greek, Italian, Czech and Mexican immigrants. This district has even been called a home to the Reagan Democrats. Whether you like it or not, Lipinksi represents the values of his constituents. Outside forces trying to shoehorn in someone who doesn't represent her constituents but will toe the national party line is narrow-minded, and really appalling.

yeah dude, the southwest suburbs are well-known for their hatred of affordable healthcare and opposition to a higher minimum wage. there's a tendency in this thread to view Lipinski as some sort of champion of the working class, from the mythical "communitarian" chunk of the political compass. in truth, he's just a fossilized conservadem increasingly out of step with his district — not just on issues like abortion and LGBT rights, but on a whole host of economic issues.

Yeah I never get the idea that because there's working class immigrant groups, that somehow gives you a right to oppose LGBT rights.

Discrimination is only bad if opposing it is politically convenient #ModerateHeros

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The guy must be a real jerk personally if fellow incumbents endorse his challenger.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking

Same

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lipinski will win this time around, but I imagine it'll be his final term in office - He's not used to, you know, campaigning, and seems to only be doing this to avoid being the laughingstock at the #NoLabels after-convention dinner. Hell, maybe he even resigns six months into 2019?

I wonder if Lipinski wins he will be bitter and take it out on Dems, like not voting for Pelosi if they have like 218/219 seats or caucusing with Rs in a final term as an FU to Ds.

That's actually something I've been worried about, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

After the roaring success of a the DCCC in Texas I’m not too fussed.

Fwiw national democrats have always being backing him-but the question isn’t whether the Triple C back him, but how they do it. If they really cared they would have bought advertising last month, sent staff, done oppo research.

Yeah, this is only the absolute minimum amount of backing they could get away with providing him.  Even the IL Democratic Party has more or less left Lipinski to fend for himself, which is part of why I'm really worried that Lipinski will caucus with the Republicans and/or generally do everything in his power to make life difficult for Democrats if he wins the primary.  He's been unofficially cut loose for all intents and purposes (and rightly so) by the vast majority of Democrats including the state party, D-trip, and most national Democrats.  This wasn't always the case.  In 2012, he was initially facing a serious liberal primary challenger who I suspect would've beaten him in the primary, but the legislature redrew his district to neutralize that challenge.  Given that Lipinski strikes me as a highly vindictive guy (even more so than Lieberman) and is probably running for his last term anyway, it's critical that he lose the Democratic primary this cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This area is almost the same as it was 30 years ago though.  There is not much going for it, no good jobs, dying industries and declining population.  The only difference is Mexican immigrants, who are NOT the voters Newman is targetting.  The gentrified Bridgeport neighborhood is probably 1% of the voters here.

Since you seem to know more about this district, what do you think is going to happen with the primary?

I think Lipinski will win narrowly but I am a lot less confident than I was a few months ago.  He hasn't run any ads while she has been bombarding the airwaves.  The district as a whole is definitely with Lipinski but I don't know what will happen in the Democratic primary where clearly liberal activists are the most fired up this year. 

I see. And what do you think the consequences would be if Lipinski were to lose? It seems as if most of the people here want him gone, simply because he is not a all-out progressive as they would prefer most Democrats to be.

If Lipinski loses?  Nothing.  The Republican is a Nazi and this is still a Democratic district, so people will suck it up and vote for her.

That is true. But what I actually meant was this: what would the consequences be for the Party as a whole?

We'd get rid of a borderline-DINO in a safe Democratic seat without any downside?