MI-Senate 2018

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D for now. Democrats would be incredibly stupid to take this race for granted, and I believe there is a lot more "upset" potential here than in PA. Running a more "Trumpist" wave insurance candidate and not some random boring "generic Republican" seems like the best option for the GOP in MI IMO.

That being said, I think there is an 80%-85% chance that this race is a very easy double digit win for Stabenow and maybe a 15% chance or so that it goes down to the wire. Nothing in between. That's just my gut feeling, and I could be wrong of course.

I think this race is safe D (regardless of what Kid Rock does) and the PA Senate race probably is too, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In retrospect, the fact that I think Kid Rock could have held Stabenow to within a 5-10% margin is a pretty frightening reflection on the state of the Republican Experiment. The folks on Breitbart were fully prepared to throw him into that campaign and deal with him had he won.

Kid Rock would’ve struggled to crack 38%, much less come anywhere near holding Stabenow to a single-digit win.