2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.

We running anyone there at all?

No one remotely credible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

With this change of focus, the upper Midwest can go back to 2008 times, electorally. PA-18 is certain evidence that Democrats can sweep the entire region easily.

Let's not get carried away here.  While there is clearly an opportunity to make up a ton of ground in the Midwest, the suburbs are still very much the future of the Democratic Party.  The rest is padding our margins.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.

We running anyone there at all?

No one remotely credible.

OH-16 might have been in play if we had recruited someone strong from the get-go, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance we beat Gonzalez. If Hagan wins the primary, then we're cooking, but IDK who would be a good nominee up there.

Nicholas Celebrezze

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'd blame the Huertas, tbh.  Emilio Huerta ran a virtually non-existant campaign only to drop out right before the filing deadline and his mother (a locally prominent activist with considerable pull within certain Hispanic Democratic political circles in the area) was apparently going around telling potential candidates that if anyone challenged her son in the primary then she'd actively work to make sure Hispanics in the district stayed home on election day.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate. 

He has a number of skeletons in his closet (https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/08/tj-cox-congress-david-valadao-central-valley/).  I don't think Cox will win, but there's a small chance that he wins simply due to the size of the wave.  Speaking of recruiting fumbles, we really need to find a better candidate to run against Katko.  I know we probably won't because one of the some dudes running has the county party endorsements, but this seems like a wasted opportunity (then again, the wave could save us here too).  I don't think Tom Reed's district is quite as big a fumble, but I do wish we had a stronger candidate running here since the combination of depressed Republican turnout and absolutely insane Democratic turnout in Ithaca County could definitely be enough to pull off an upset here in a wave election (a decidedly meh candidate nearly unseated Reed this way in 2012 IIRC).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who is running in NM-2 to prompt a Leans R rating?

Yeah, that one seems like a missed opportunity