2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

A fool and his money are soon to part

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

On a related note, I found out today that Cornregard Southron Buttermilk McGillicuddy XXV is now a lobbyist for Viktor Orban. Wonder who Rubio would've sold out to if Crist beat him - Erdogan?

Raul Castro?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example).

No.

Hasn't it, though, at least for Democrats? I seem to remember gaudy Democratic margins that get trimmed as some Republicans come home in the end.

Sometimes, but not always.  However, even then the playing field often expands significantly in the House the closer we get to the election in wave years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

The thing is that 1) some bouncing around is to be expected (I still think the generic ballot will probably be between +8 and +12 by mid-October), 2) the playing field in the House has already expanded to the point that I don’t think we need an 8-9 point win in the House popular vote to flip the chamber and the seat-by-seat math for the Republicans keeping it is getting tougher and tougher, 3) we may well be nearing a government shutdown which the Republicans will almost certainly be blamed for, and 4) Democrats have been consistently getting crazy swings in specials whether it be GA-6, SC-5, Senator Doug Jones, the WI state Senate seat, state legislature specials in OK, TN, and NH, local races in the Philly suburbs, or pretty much everything in VA.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2018/01/20/weinzapfel-expected-run-congress/1051228001/

Former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel will run for Congress in IN-8.  Definitely an A-list recruit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate.

Yeah, it's a pity that DCCC won't support stellar candidates like Tim Canova, Zephyr Teachout and Vincent Fort.

I know you sort of live in a bizarre, inexplicable left-loathing bubble, but I can personally vouch that Mary Matiella is certainly the best candidate running in AZ-02. A damn sight better than Carpetbagger Kirkpatrick, in particular.

Her fundraising sucks and Kirkpatrick is a pretty solid candidate, so I highly doubt that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't see what's wrong with Matiella. She's just simply better.

Thank you. Enough with the fake democrats! Get real ones, and then maybe people will vote for them! And please centrist overlords of Atlas, don't give me your same old cliché spiel about Northam. Northam won because Virginia is a suburban RINO Tom state that is home to the MIC and Intelligence agencies and all my least favorite people! So they'll vote for any one regardless of policy, as long as they don't say mean words or punch a CNN Logo. Jones is not bad for an AL dem, and I love him to death, but he won in an extraordinary stroke of luck against a pedophile! You think the "law and order" morons who cry any time we say anything about a police officer being corrupt are gonna vote for an accused pedophile? Or presume him "innocent until proven guilty"? LOL. But anyway, it was an extraordinary circumstance. However, swing states Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona etc. are NOT like suburban VA. They will not vote for a poor candidate like Northam, Rouda, Susie Lee, Lucas St. Clair and especially a carpetbagger like Ann Kirkpatrick or Gil Cisneros.

Kewl story bro

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

Quite possibly, but the development of that bench, which is probably the strongest county bench in the state at this point, has a lot to do with the Pepper-Cranley axis of power, and who knows how long that will be maintained. Pureval's a very good get, but he's going to have trouble in Warren County.

I think Warren County Republican turnout will crash until Trump is out of office.  After that, it’ll be redistricting time and Cincinnati has to go somewhere.  It can either be shoved into one safe D seat (as it would be in a fair map) or split it two ways which inevitably leaves you with a seat Pureval should be able to lockdown all things being equal (especially given the dominant Republican brand).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yarmuth going nowhere in 2018.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Arizona’s 2nd Democratic Primary
Mary Matiella - $50,181

For f**k's sake.

Still think she's a powerhouse candidate?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Arizona’s 2nd Democratic Primary
Mary Matiella - $50,181

For f**k's sake.

Still think she's a powerhouse candidate?

Not fundraising-wise, no, but I still seriously doubt Kirkpatrick's strength, especially as a long-term candidate. Our field of candidates in AZ-02 absolutely sucks.

Nah, Kirkpatrick's got this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What are your thoughts on NE-2? Brad Ashford lost by a pretty narrow margin in 2016 and if there's a wave, NE-2 could be one of the first to go I think.

I wish someone else was running tbh, but with a general outlook on that district separate from the individual candidates, it should be more competitive under Trump than it was under Obama. My guess is that Bacon goes down and Republicans do not end up winning it back until at least 2022.

Sounds about right

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mawlinowski seems like a really strong candidate and he has a good profile (used to be the Washington Director of Human Rights Watch before becoming Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, plus he's raised quite a bit of money pretty quickly).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan is looking into running for NY-21st https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/35651/20180216/former-msnbc-host-dylan-ratigan-mulls-ny-21-run

That doesn't seem like the right candidate.

Since when do the Democrats care? They ran McGinty for PA-Sen, Emily Cain for ME-02, and Dan Malloy for CT-Gov and are about to run J.B. f**king Pritzker for IL-Gov.

All of those people have a rolodex of campaign donors or are personally rich, and none of them have a single radical idea in their heads.  That's the DCCC's definition of a perfect candidate.

Cain was, surely, superliberal for her district...

Cain was too "District 1." Policy had very little to do with it.

This, Troy Jackson would’ve won the GE pretty easily.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently Tom Rooney will not seek re-election

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lamb all-but certain to run in PA-17 no matter the special election results:

http://wesa.fm/post/bumped-new-district-lamb-says-he-ll-run-primary-doesn-t-say-where#stream/0

Dems are certainly getting the ball going on recruiting so fast. Very impressive if they get both DePasquale in PA-10 and Lamb in PA-17.

I hope Rachel Reddick is strong enough to ride a wave in Pa-1. Her former Republican registration could be a plus if she plays her cards right. This race and PA-10 will probably be the hardest of the new competitive seats for Dems to win.

I think Scott Wallace is probably the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in PA-1.  He didn't get in that long ago, but IIRC he was recruited to run by the DCCC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lamb all-but certain to run in PA-17 no matter the special election results:

http://wesa.fm/post/bumped-new-district-lamb-says-he-ll-run-primary-doesn-t-say-where#stream/0

Dems are certainly getting the ball going on recruiting so fast. Very impressive if they get both DePasquale in PA-10 and Lamb in PA-17.

I hope Rachel Reddick is strong enough to ride a wave in Pa-1. Her former Republican registration could be a plus if she plays her cards right. This race and PA-10 will probably be the hardest of the new competitive seats for Dems to win.

I think Scott Wallace is probably the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in PA-1.  He didn't get in that long ago, but IIRC he was recruited to run by the DCCC.

Let's hope he lives up to his grandfather's legacy!

Besides his last name and resources, what exactly makes him substantially superior to Rachel Reddick?

Never said he was

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

The official kickoff of the 2018 election cycle.

Were any Dem primaries seriously contested in 2014? We know that Dems are seriously engaged in low turnout races and primaries, so I wouldn't read too much into this we don't already know about the general election.

There are a lot of seriously contested Republican primaries in Texas this cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

Yeah the story makes it sound like he is open to the idea so it must be something bad to make him change his tune

I hope the domestic violence rumors aren't true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ossoff will not run again in GA-06

So who will? (Other than Handel of course).

Who cares? We’re not winning GA-06. Get someone good in 07.

Definitely disagree, actually I think we may pick up GA-7 this cycle.
GA-06 falls before GA-07.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I bet Salas runs.

I hope so, but I think it's Steve Schilling (he could win too though).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.