2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BOLD PREDICTION: Flake will be forced to retire and Mcsally will run.

I think they're keeping her on reserve for whenever McCain dies.  Fortunately, unlike Sinema, Stanton should be strong enough to beat McSally (who may well go down this year).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the fact that so many Republicans are getting outraised (some like Barr, Freelinghuysen, Bishop, Grothman, etc getting absolutely crushed) is another sign that there is a real wave building and a big one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BOLD PREDICTION: Flake will be forced to retire and Mcsally will run.

I think they're keeping her on reserve for whenever McCain dies.  Fortunately, unlike Sinema, Stanton should be strong enough to beat McSally (who may well go down this year).

If you think Sinema is "weak"(even though she isn't, she's a stronger candidate than most democrats incumbents) wait until news drops about Stanton's involvement wasting hundreds of millions of tax payer money to buy a hotels some sort of government run business. It hasn't hit the news much yet and I assume you havent heard about it but now that Stanton is running for congress the republicans will go to town for wasteful spending like this. AZ is not a place thats nice to fiscal irresponsibility. I can already see the ads telling voters about Stanton's irresponsible stunt to make a communist government owned business with our tax dollars and then eventually loosing tens of millions.

I never said Sinema was a weak candidate, so I'm not sure why that is in quotes.  However, unlike Stanton, she has some major baggage.  I actually did know about the hotel thing (I looked it up because you mention it almost literally every time someone mentions Stanton's name ).  I don't think it is anywhere near as bad as you've made it out to be, at least politically.  I don't think it'll cause Stanton any real problems during his political career although I get that you are personally really pissed about it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Amusing:

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This is actually a big deal as Hanna had been considering a third-party bid before Brindisi got in which would've liked resulted in Tenney's re-election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Easily our best possible recruit; this race now goes straight to toss-up (and could well end up tilt-D, depending on who the Republicans nominate).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't know were to put this

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I think she could be the Hostettler of this cycle tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.

I mean, I'll defer to Ohio Dems here, but this seems like a decent prospect - a fairly urbanish district, I believe it trended towards Clinton (), Mike Turner had a fairly unique appeal here being the Mayor of Dayton for a while, very popular for a long time. I don't know the benches in this area well, I assume the Dems are gonna have a lot of no names.

We have some solid candidates who could run if this seat opens up and it’s a decent pickup possiblity if he retires.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/syracuse_mayor_stephanie_miner_reconsiders_running_for_congress.html

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

I don't actually fancy the Dems' chances in NY-24 - Katko has proven to be a way better incumbent than anticipated and has thus far blanched both Democrats he's faced - but I'm glad they're still taking it seriously.

Neither of whom were strong candidates

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

I'm not sure an African-American is the best candidate Democrats could field in this district, bluntly put. Whaley would definitely be better. I don't know about Keith, but few voters can name their county auditor.

Who would be the most likely GOP candidates here? A comeback by Steve Austria whom I believe still lives in the district? I imagine he'd be the strongest Republican candidate by far.

Strahorn is a strong enough candidate that I think he’d still be a good recruit, but I agree that Keith and Whaley would be stronger candidates.  We’ve got a decent bench here tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

Who?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

Who?

Basically SomeDude. And yet, still probably the best candidate in the race.

Eh, we have no shot here anyway.  As long as my next Congressman isn't Jordan or Mingo, I can probably live with whoever the Republicans put up.  The Delaware County Prosecutor might well be an improvement over Tiberi tbh, but IDK.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Be that as it may, the other two candidates (one of whom has barely raised anything IIRC) are weaker than Hulings.

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

I agree. This district is safe than some districts that are more Republican simply by nature of the Republican's strength and Democratic Party fielding poor candidates.

It’s not so much that Hulings is a bad candidate per-se as it is that he’s a decidedly meh one running against a really strong incumbent.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Stivers is a really strong incumbent and the Democrat is a some dude, but I’d love for him to lose.  If the ODP had its sh!t together, he’d be facing a strong opponent so Stivers should be okay

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Stivers is a really strong incumbent and the Democrat is a some dude, but I’d love for him to lose.  If the ODP had its sh!t together, he’d be facing a strong opponent so Stivers should be okay

I've met Rick Neal. He is a SomeDude, but first time candidates are doing well, and he's got potential and charisma. We'll see what happens.

And who could the ODP actually run here? The Mayor of Athens might be a good candidate, but the Dem bench is very weak because the Franklin County gerrymander is absolutely brutal.

True, Rick Neal it is, I suppose.  I haven’t met him, so maybe you’re right.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

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That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

Why must he if he doesn't feel guilty? Try to primary him - that's your right, but you can't DEMAND his resignation. It all becomes more and more idiotic...

Finally someone agrees with me, why is their no more “innocent until proven guilty” in this country. Whenever people feel they can get a political hit on someone they make up crap and throw it at them and everyone is Spose to believe them. Well I for one refuse to believe anyone’s Outlandish claims unless their backed up by irrefutable evidence because that’s how Democratic society’s are spose to function. Their are not spose to be any god damn Salem which trials or Mccarthyist red scares anymore that crap is spose to be relagated to history books and third world countries today.

Yeah all those inappropriate text messages are totally crap and faked

Present them in COURT. Only court may decide who is guilty and who is not. Not "public opinion". As i said above - primary him if you wish. But you have NO right to DEMAND his resignation and so on. Detailed inquiry must be first, decision - later. After all - why must i belive ALL these accusations as "bona fide truth"? Women not lie? They do, and frequently - better then men. They can't slander? They can, and frequently - better then men. They don't hold grudges, don't seek vengeance? They do, and more frequently then men. And so on. Let court (or, at least, commission of the House)  study accusations, and, if neccessary - establishes his guilt and metes proper punishment. Until THEN - person is not guilty, and everything else may be termed as witchhunt and McCarthy tactics.

You have no right to DEMAND someone not make DEMANDS of resignation.

I demand that you prove that women sometimes lie in a court of law. Until you do, you have no right to make such slanderous statements.

See how silly you are?

I - silly? Idiot, you can't even imagine how silly are you. You are below an idiot level. Until you i thought it was imposiible. I know hundreds of cases in our Russian courts (many of them were later discussed on TV in details) where women killed, lied, slandered, accused of rape men, who refused to marry them after consensual sex, and so on. Sir, you are unique. World never had such pristine idiot before you.

P.S. I laughed reading about your "demand".  F**k yourself in the ass, Sir! Preferrably - with your own dick.

As awful as your [Smoltchov’s] views on this subject are, that’s not what really stands out here.  More than anything, I’m always struck by how thin-skinned and delusionally arrogant you get whenever someone criticizes something you’ve said.  Even if we ignore how ridiculously over-sensitive you are to any criticism, the delusions of intellectual grandeur on display here are really something to behold.  Your go-to response to anyone who seriously challenges or pushes back against your views on pretty much anything is generally some version of “But...but...but...but you can’t say I’m wrong because I’m the smartest person ever and you’re just a big fat stupidhead!  I’m rubber and you’re glue!”  It’s like when Hifly used to respond to any criticism by falsely (and belligerently) claiming he went to Oxford as if he expected that claim to intimidate people or something. 

Frankly, your tendency to respond to criticism by belligerently insisting that anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot is extremely childish at best and more than a little pathetic.  Furthermore, the way that you always blow up like a puffer fish and try to insist that you’re some sort of genius or something (LOL) suggests that you are pretty insecurity about your own intelligence or lackthereof (hence your compulsive need to make OTT claims about being some sort of “genius” whenever someone points out the absurdity of one of your more outlandish views, be it your fetishization of Moderate Heroism for its own sake, your Neanderthal attitude toward sexual harassment, the misogynistic excuses you make for sexual predators like Kihuen, your fanatical support for even the most anti-democratic excesses of CA’s top-two system, etc).  I’m just being honest when I say that the cartoonish arrogance of posts like the one you just made really makes it difficult to take you seriously.  It wouldn’t kill you to learn a little humility and consider the possibility that you’re not always right about everything. 

Oh and one more thing: If you’re going to try to present yourself as some sort of intellectual powerhouse of wit and wisdom, you should really try to think of a better insult than “F*** yourself in the a**, sir!  Preferably with your own dick.”  You’re not gonna impress middle schoolers with that one, much less an actual adult.  It only reinforces the childishness of your post and makes you sound even sillier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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As I’ve said, Barr will probably lose to either Gray or McGrath.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Why is "numbskull" Nunes so hard to get rid of?

I am waiting to see the fundraising report for this quarter from one of the candidates who recently-ish jumped in against him.  Also it's not the type of district where we'd see as strong a swing.  Calvert's seat could theoretically flip too, but we'd need to actually recruit a decent candidate instead of the joke some dudes currently running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Yeah, Hunter is dealing with some pretty substantial allegations of using campaign funds for personal expenses. Plus his district swung Democratic by almost 8 points in 2016.

For me, the real question is whether Hunter is just raising money for legal expenses and plans to retire right at the filing deadline.  If he's really running again, I suspect the seat will flip (we actually have a relatively decent candidate running here; nothing amazing, but certainly strong enough to beat Hunter assuming he's the Democrat who makes it to the top-two.  If Hunter decides not to run again though, that helps the Republicans a lot (the seat could still flip if the wave is big enough, but he'd be a much heavier lift). 

Btw, the Democrats really need to clear out the clown-car of candidates running against Rohrabacher a bit (maybe offer one or two of them some sort of state government post, encourage them to drop down to some other race, or even just have the DCCC and/or Dem-affiliated groups unambiguously throw their weight behind one or two of the candidates), but something should be done to shrink the Democratic field sooner rather than later.  I might turn out to be making a mountain out of a molehill, but there's one other Republican running who claims he's going to self-fund to the tune of $200,000 (whether he actually will is another matter entirely, hard to say how serious a candidate he is atm).  However, given the size of their field, I worry about Democrats getting boxed out of the November runoff.  I think it is more likely than not that we'll get one of the spots, but I'd feel better if there were one or two fewer Democratic candidates in this race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sittenfield would definitely win here if he ran as would either Driehaus.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

Your expectations are way too high. Also, Paul Davis hasn't raised more than the commutative fundraising of the entire GOP field in the district, which is large.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=KS02

Actually, that’s pretty clearly a solidly Lean D race right now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Clarke Tucker will be running for AR-02 because of favorable numbers he's seeing.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/dec/31/ready-for-a-run-20171231/

Excellent, that alone should move this seat to Lean R with a very real chance of flipping.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

Run P.G., run!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC gives its support to 7 named recruits:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/dccc-red-to-blue-candidates

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised $502K in the 4th quarter.

NY-11: Max Rose raised $330K in the 4th quarter.

NC-13: Kathy Manning raised $530K in December.

MN-03: Dean Phillips raised $402K in the 4th quarter, none of it from PACs.

I see why Budd's campaign (NC-13) seemed to have a temporary freak out almost literally the instant Manning got in the race.  Their internal polling must have been showing a huge swing against the Republicans in NC-13 and Manning's fundraising haul confirmed my suspicion that she was a strong recruit.  I think there's a very real chance this seat flips (same with NC-2 although Holding is a stronger incumbent imo, but Pittinger is – if he gets re-nominated – in the most danger and I don't see him winning re-election tbh; he seems like exactly the kind of incredibly weak incumbent who would "unexpectedly" get swept out in a wave).